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Senate Dem 51   GOP 48   Ties 1
House Dem 206   GOP 201   Ties 28

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tied Exactly tied (1)
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weak GOP Weak GOP (5)
strong GOP Strong GOP (39)
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barely Ind Barely Ind (0)
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Senate polls today: CA CO FL KY MO NC OR PA WA WI WV iPhone RSS
Dem pickups: (None) GOP pickups: AR CO IN NV ND PA WI PDA

PW logo Kirk's Online Fundraising Haul Strickland Catches Kasich in Ohio
Dead Heat in Alaska Bonus Quote of the Day
Another Poll Points to Big GOP Gains Raese Opens Up Lead in West Virginia

News from the Votemaster            

Early Voting Starting in 32 States     Permalink

Early voting is allowed in 32 states and most of them have started the process already. The early voting takes two forms: no-fault absentee ballots and in-person voting. In the former, any voter can get an absentee ballot to mail back just by asking for it. No reason need be given. Every state west of the Mississippi River allows this as well as some east of it. In addition, polling places are already open for voters to vote in person in some other states.

The Democrats, who have a serious enthusiasm gap to worry about, are making maximum use of this longer voting period to turn out the vote. The basic model is to have volunteers canvass many neighborhoods well in advance to locate individual voters who say they will vote for them. Then as soon as early voting starts, they begin calling people who are on their side to badger them to go vote early. The badgering does not stop until the voter votes. The Republicans do the same thing, of course, except they need it less this year because (1) Republican voters always turn out at higher rates than Democrats in midterm elections and (2) Republicans are more fired up this year.

From very scattered reports it appears the Democrats are doing well, at least initially. Of course, the people who voted early may have been intending to vote all along, so the net result of their voting early is just a smaller turnout on election day. Still, early voting helps the party with the enthusiasm gap since it gives them more time to run their get-out-the-vote campaign.

Three Waves in a Row--Maybe Four     Permalink

If the expected Republican wave occurs this year, it will be three in a row. Clearly the electorate is very unhappy with the status quo and seems to have a tendency to get angry with whomever is in power. If the Republicans win 50 or more seats in the House this year, certainly a real possibility, veteran Republican strategists foresee a problem in 2012. Just as the Democrats are defending many marginal seats this year, a newly enlarged Republican House delegation will be defending many marginal freshmen in 2012--a year when there is a presidential election and Democratic turnout will be high, as it was in 2008. That could easily result in another wave, kicking out many of the newly elected Republicans.

What the voters want is for the politicians to solve problems, not bicker with each other. The trouble is the two parties have very different agendas. The Democratic Party wants government to help the sick, the weak, the poor, and the middle class in their perpetual struggle for a better life against powerful forces that want to exploit them. The Republicans oppose this and believe it is "every man for himself." They want a smaller government that intrudes less in people's lives (except when it comes to anything touching sex, like abortion and homosexuality, in which case the government should dictate acceptable behavior). The Democrats are willing to move just enough to the right to stay competitive and the Republicans have traditionally been willing to move just enough to the left to stay competitive, so the equilibirum is very fragile and there is no national consensus on anything, as there was during the 1950s under President Eisenhower.

Palin Supports Raese in Pennsylvania     Permalink

Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin has endorsed John Raese in a tweet, her standard form of endorsement. The tweet read: "Pennsylvania:makes sense 2 send GOP 2 DC 2 avoid PA economic disaster that will occur under Obama/Pelosi Cap & Tax scheme; workers need Raese." The only problem with this tweet is that Raese (who lives in Florida) is not running in Pennsylvania. He is running for the Senate in West Virginia. If Palin runs for President in 2012, expect this tweet to resurface in the primaries as Palin's opponents try to demonstrate that she is a scatterbrained lightweight incapable of getting her facts straight.

Current State of All States     Permalink

Below are the poll graphs for all the Senate races (except NY-A, where Chuck Schumer will win in a landslide) for September and October. A page with all the graphs in one place is updated every day at https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2010/Senate/Graphs, a stable URL you can bookmark. Alternatively, go to the "Senate graph" entry on the menu below the map and there is a link to this page near the bottom.





































Today's Polls: CA CO FL KY MO NC OR PA WA WI WV MA-10 ME-01 ME-02 NY-19 OR-01 WI-07     Permalink

New Senate Polls

State Democrat D % Republican R % I I % Start End Pollster
California Barbara Boxer* 46% Carly Fiorina 44%     Oct 15 Oct 18 SurveyUSA
California Barbara Boxer* 48% Carly Fiorina 44%     Oct 16 Oct 16 Pulse Opinion Research
Colorado Michael Bennet* 45% Ken Buck 46%     Oct 16 Oct 16 Pulse Opinion Research
Colorado Michael Bennet* 45% Ken Buck 48%     Oct 18 Oct 18 IPSOS
Florida Kendrick Meek 20% Marco Rubio 43% Charlie Crist 32% Oct 18 Oct 18 Rasmussen
Kentucky Jack Conway 42% Rand Paul 47%     Oct 18 Oct 18 Rasmussen
Missouri Robin Carnahan 43% Roy Blunt 49%     Oct 16 Oct 16 Pulse Opinion Research
North Carolina Elaine Marshall 40% Richard Burr* 48%     Oct 15 Oct 17 PPP
Oregon Ron Wyden* 56% Jim Huffman 40%     Oct 15 Oct 17 PPP
Pennsylvania Joe Sestak 44% Pat Toomey 41%     Oct 16 Oct 19 Muhlenberg Coll.
Pennsylvania Joe Sestak 46% Pat Toomey 45%     Oct 17 Oct 18 PPP
Washington Patty Murray* 48% Dino Rossi 47%     Oct 14 Oct 17 Marist Coll.
Washington Patty Murray* 49% Dino Rossi 47%     Oct 14 Oct 16 PPP
Wisconsin Russ Feingold* 47% Ron Johnson 49%     Oct 12 Oct 15 St. Norbert Coll.
West Virginia Joe Manchin 45% John Raese 48%     Oct 16 Oct 16 Pulse Opinion Research

New House Polls

CD Democrat D % Republican R % I I % Start End Pollster
MA-10 Bill Keating 46% Jeff Perry 43%     Oct 13 Oct 15 MassINC Polling Group
ME-01 Chellie Pingree* 49% Dean Scontras 33%     Oct 11 Oct 15 Pan Atlantic SMS
ME-02 Mike Michaud* 49% Jason Levesque 29%     Oct 11 Oct 15 Pan Atlantic SMS
NY-19 John Hall* 49% Nan Hayworth 48%     Oct 15 Oct 18 Monmouth U.
OR-01 David Wu* 51% Rob Cornilles 42%     Oct 16 Oct 18 SurveyUSA
WI-07 Julie Lassa 39% Sean Duffy 46%     Oct 18 Oct 18 We Ask America

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Recent Headlines (clickable)

Oct19 Control of the Senate May Come Down to Four States
Oct19 Rundown of the Governors' Races
Oct19 Manchin and Raese Debated yesterday
Oct19 For Tea Party Candidates Getting Elected is the Easy Part
Oct19 Today's Polls: CA CT FL MD MO NV NY UT WA AZ-03 ME-01 MO-05 PA-15 VA-05
Oct18 Brief Reminder
Oct18 New Way of Predicting the House Results
Oct18 Many Three-Way Races This Year
Oct18 Taxonomy of Political Debates
Oct18 Today's Polls: HI UT MN-01 NH-01 NH-02 NY-25
Oct17 Republicans Outraise Democrats
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Oct17 Top Republican Candidates Skip Palin Fundraiser
Oct17 Today's Polls: CO OR PA-15
Oct16 IPhone App Icon Now Placed Below the Map
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Oct14 IPhone App Available for electoral-vote.com
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Oct14 Today's Polls: DE FL IL NC NV OR SC WA WI WV + 18 House polls
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Oct13 DCCC Abandoning Many House Candidates
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Oct12 Early Voting Has Already Started
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