Today is Super Tuesday     Permalink

Super Tuesday is not your grandfather's super Tuesday. In fact, it is not even your older sister's super Tuesday. Only 10 states are voting today (vs. 24 states and American Samoa in 2008). Nevertheless, it could be decisive, especially if Mitt Romney wins Ohio and most of the rest. If he pulls that off, he will once again be the inevitable nominee. If Rick Santorum wins Ohio, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and maybe a few more, there will be no joy in Mudville. Here are the states voting today.

If Santorum ekes out a small victory in Ohio, he will certainly continue running for another week. In fact, even if he loses a close race he might keep going for a while. Kansas, a very conservative state, votes on Saturday and Santorum might win that no matter what happens today. Next Tuesday, Hawaii, Alabama, and Mississipi will vote. Even after a loss in Ohio, Santorum could win Kansas, Alabama, and Mississippi, putting him back in the running. If Gingrich is thumped everywhere in the South except his home state, logically he ought to drop out, but he probably won't. Of course, by staying in, he will help Romney, a man he hates, but his ego is too large to fit through the exit door.

If Romney wins big today, he may say "To hell with Kansas, Alabama, and Mississippi" and start his general election campaign tomorrow, knowing full well that he will carry all three of them no matter what he says in the next 9 months. Such a pivot would consist of just ignoring Santorum and spending his days attacking Obama as well as trying to retract some of the more conservative things he has been saying lately to placate the Republican base. Few of these voters would be fooled, but they would have no where else to go unless Ron Paul decides to run as a Libertarian--and he has given no indication he is planning to do that. However, a Santorum win in Ohio, Tennessee, and Oklahoma today, followed by wins in Kansas, Alabama, and Mississippi would make it nearly impossible for Romney to act like he was already the nominee.

Independent Throws Maine Senate Race into Turmoil     Permalink

Former Maine governor Angus King, an independent, has announced that he is running for the Senate seat Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) is vacating. When Snowe said she was retiring, Democrats cheered and Republicans moped because all of a sudden it looked like the Democrats would capture this seat and probably hold the Senate as a consequence. Now with the entry of the popular and progressive King, the Republicans are cheering and the Democrats are moping. If King wins, he will certainly caucus with the Democrats, like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) or former senator Jim Jeffords, also of Vermont. The problem for the Democrats is that in a three-way race between a Democrat, probably Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-ME), some Republican, and King, the progressive vote will be split between the Democrat and King, allowing the Republican to win.

In a sense, this race could be a mirror of the Republican presidential nomination. There, the not-Romney vote is well over 50%, but because it is split among multiple candidates, Romney is probably going to win. In Maine, the not-Republican vote is also going to be split, which may allow the Republican to win. One argument the Democrats may use, however, is that King, at 67, is too old to be in the Senate long enough to acquire much power. Still, Maine has a lot of old people, so that argument could backfire. The point they need to make is not that King is too old for the job, but that he will be 80 before he gets any real power, and may decide to retire then. Pingree is 56.

What is also possible, but unlikely, is a (secret) deal between the Democrat and King that a week before the election, if one of them is leading the other by more than 5% in the polls, the one behind drops out and endorses the other one. But losing candidates always expect miracles (see Gingrich, Newton L.)

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