News from the Votemaster

A third of Voters Less Likely to Support Romney Due to Video

A new Gallup poll shows that 36% of voters are less likely to vote for Mitt Romney as a result of the video in which he said that 47% of of Americans are dependent on government and consider themselves victims. In contrast, 20% said they were more likely to vote for him. The rest weren't swayed one way or the other. Among independents, 29% said they were now less likely to vote for him while only 15% were more likely.

An Ipsos poll also just released has similar results: 43% of the registered voters view Romney less favorably as a result of the video. Only 26% felt better about Romney. While the details of the video will be forgotten in a few weeks, the lingering image of Romney as someone who does not care about half the country could remain and hurt him.

Romney Tries to Change the Subject

After a devastating week of criticism over his all-too-hasty remarks about the events in Egypt and Libya, and two devastating days of attacks over the "47% video" what does Romney do to right his ship? He brings up a 1998 audio clip of Barack Obama saying "I actually believe in redistribution, at least at a certain level, to make sure that everybody's got a shot." It is hard to believe. There was no apology from Romney for anything he said, no major speech like Richard Nixon's 1952 "Checkers speech," no indication of any kind that he might have done something wrong or ill advised. Just more attacks, and then with a 14-year-old audio clip.

Romney appears to be completely oblivious to all the attacks coming from key Republicans. Peggy Noonan, Ronald Reagan's speechwriter, said he is running an incompetent campaign. Bill Kristol, editor of the conservative Weekly Standard, called Romney "arrogant and stupid." Rich Lowry, editor of the National Review skewered Romney for making a "bad point badly." These people are not Obama's campaign aides. They are highly experienced, very partisan Republicans. In addition, Republican candidates, including Scott Brown, Linda McMahon, and Dean Heller, have also criticized Romney. Politico put it bluntly: "Mitt Romney needs poll vault to win." None of this friendly fire seems to have made an impression, though. Romney just keeps doing what he has been doing all year, attacking his opponents instead of talking about himself. If he ends up losing, the post mortems are all going to be about his tin ear.

One might have expected a businessman to see things differently. If a company's product is not doing as well as the CEO would like, he generally tries to improve the product or at least its image. He doesn't exclusively tell people how bad the competition is. It is as though Microsoft didn't tell anyone how great its products are but only what's wrong with Apple's products.

Republicans Afraid that Romney Could Cost Them the Senate

Presidents often have coattails and Republicans are now worried that Obama's coattails in states like Ohio and Virginia could cost them control of the Senate. John Weaver, a senior advisor to John McCain in 2008, said: "If your guy wins the White House, he's going to sweep in one or two or three Senate races that might not happen otherwise." Other states where a big Obama win could bring in a Senate seat are Nevada, Wisconsin, and Connecticut, all of which have very tight Senate races.

Republican candidates for Congress are now trying to detach themselves from Romney. One said: "I just don't think that any of our members are tied to Romney at all." But this is just opportunism. When the top of the ticket is polling well, congressional candidates tell the voters they are needed in Congress to help carry out the President's program. There is none of that among Republicans this year.

Just a few months ago, Republican control of the Senate seemed probable. Today's map shows the Democrats ahead in 53 seats, with Maine unknown. If Angus King in Maine decides he is a Democrat after all, the Democrats could end up with 54 seats in the Senate, a net gain of one from where they are now. It would be an enormous reversal from the expectation not that long ago.

Obama in Better Shape Than Any Nominee Since Clinton

A new Pew Poll of likely voters gives President Obama a lead of 51% to 43% over Mitt Romney. This is the largest lead any presidential nominee of either party has held in September since 1996, when Bill Clinton led Bob Dole 50% to 38%. In 2008 at this point, Obama and John McCain were tied in the Pew poll at 46% each. The Pew poll was taken after both conventions but before the leaked video was posted.

Obama Discovers Where the Levers of Power Are

For three years, many Democrats have been hitting President Obama for not being Lyndon Johnson. For example, during the fight in Congress about the ACA, he refused to use his power to threaten recalcitrant members of Congress (as in: "Senator, you know that big Air Force base in your state? To reduce the deficit, I have decided to close it"). But now he is beginning to use the power of incumbency in the campaign. He went to Ohio to personally announce a lawsuit against China's subsidizing auto parts that compete with those made in Ohio. He just announced a new National Monument in Colorado, a state that thrives on outdoor tourism. Earlier this year he instituted a policy of not deporting young Latinos who had been brought to the U.S. illegally as children but had done well here, and so on.

Incumbents can create news like this, making it easy for people to view them as presidential. Challengers can't do this. This is why 7 out of 10 postwar Presidents who have run for (re) election have won, and one of the three who lost, Gerald Ford, wasn't elected in the first place, but moved into the oval office after Richard Nixon resigned. Republicans are complaining about Obama using the powers of the office to help his campaign, but the party in power always uses whatever tools it has.

Warren and Brown to Debate Today

Democratic Senatorial candidate Elizabeth Warren and Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) will meet for the first of four debates today. Normally it is the challenger who needs the debates most, but four recent polls have shown Warren with the lead, so maybe it is Brown who has the most to gain. Warren will certainly tie him to Mitt Romney, who is trailing Obama badly in Massachusetts, even though he governed the state only a few years ago. Warren knows a thing or two about debating: she attended George Washington University on a full debate scholarship that paid her tuition, room and board, and books. That was a long time ago, however, and college debates are more about knowing more than your opponents while political debates require agility and capitalizing on your opponent's mistakes.

Today's Presidential Polls

The polling circus has hit the road, with 14 presidential and 13 Senate polls today. Especially noteworthy are Fox News polls showing Obama with substantial leads in Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, three states Romney absolutely must win. The only good news items for Romney are a Rasmussen poll showing he has a slight lead in New Hampshire and a Quinnipiac race showing the Colorado is tightening.

State	Obama	Romney		Start	End	Pollster
California	58%	34%		Sep 05	Sep 17	Field Poll
Colorado	48%	47%		Sep 11	Sep 17	Quinnipiac U.
Florida	49%	44%		Sep 16	Sep 18	Fox News
Massachusetts	59%	31%		Sep 15	Sep 17	MassINC
Massachusetts	59%	36%		Sep 13	Sep 17	U. of Mass.
Maine	54%	37%		Sep 15	Sep 17	Maine Peoples Res. Ctr.
Maine	55%	39%		Sep 17	Sep 18	PPP
Michigan	52%	44%		Sep 14	Sep 18	ORC International
New Hampshire	45%	48%		Sep 18	Sep 18	Rasmussen
Ohio	49%	42%		Sep 16	Sep 18	Fox News
Virginia	50%	43%		Sep 16	Sep 18	Fox News
Virginia	50%	46%		Sep 11	Sep 17	Quinnipiac U.
Wisconsin	51%	45%		Sep 11	Sep 17	Quinnipiac U.
Wisconsin	54%	40%		Sep 13	Sep 16	Marquette Law School

Today's Senate Polls

A new University of Connecticut poll reverses the recent Quinnipiac poll that showed Linda McMahon leading Chris Murphy. Averaging these two together and we have a surprisingly tight race, especially considering that McMahon was crushed in her 2010 Senate race against now-senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT).

Also noteworthy are two polls in Massachusetts showing Elizabeth Warren pulling away from Scott Brown for the first time and also three polls in Virginia showing Tim Kaine also pulling away from George Allen. The Marquette Law School poll with Tammy Baldwin up 9 points on Tommy Thompson is preposterous. Its poll of the presidential race is equally skewed. Clearly there was a very bad sample.

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	I	I %	Start	End	Pollster
Connecticut	Chris Murphy	37%	Linda McMahon	33%			Sep 11	Sep 16	U. of Connecticut
Florida	Bill Nelson*	49%	Connie McGillicuddy	35%			Sep 16	Sep 18	Fox News
Massachusetts	Elizabeth Warren	45%	Scott Brown*	49%			Sep 13	Sep 17	U. of Mass.
Massachusetts	Elizabeth Warren	47%	Scott Brown*	42%			Sep 15	Sep 17	MassINC
Maine	Cynthia Dill	14%	Charlie Summers	35%	Angus King	43%	Sep 17	Sep 18	PPP
Maine	Cynthia Dill	15%	Charlie Summers	28%	Angus King	44%	Sep 15	Sep 17	Maine Peoples Res. Ctr.
New Jersey	Bob Menendez*	43%	Joseph Kyrillos	32%			Sep 09	Sep 12	Global Strategy
Ohio	Sherrod Brown*	47%	Josh Mandel	40%			Sep 16	Sep 18	Fox News
Virginia	Tim Kaine	47%	George Allen	43%			Sep 16	Sep 18	Fox News
Virginia	Tim Kaine	51%	George Allen	43%			Sep 12	Sep 16	Washington Post
Virginia	Tim Kaine	51%	George Allen	44%			Sep 11	Sep 17	Quinnipiac U.
Wisconsin	Tammy Baldwin	47%	Tommy Thompson	47%			Sep 11	Sep 17	Quinnipiac U.
Wisconsin	Tammy Baldwin	50%	Tommy Thompson	41%			Sep 13	Sep 16	Marquette Law School

* Denotes incumbent

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---The Votemaster