Obama 332
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Romney 206
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Dem 46
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GOP 54
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  • Strongly Dem (191)
  • Likely Dem (72)
  • Barely Dem (69)
  • Exactly tied (0)
  • Barely GOP (15)
  • Likely GOP (16)
  • Strongly GOP (175)
270 Electoral votes needed to win Map algorithm explained
New polls: (None)
Dem pickups: (None)
GOP pickups: IN NC

News from the Votemaster

Trump Still Leading the Field

No random-sample polls of the Republican nomination contest taken after the debate have been published yet, but one poll might function as a tolerable stand-in until one comes out. SurveyMonkey has 3 million people filling out surveys every day. They got 3,551 adults 18 and over to answer the question of who they would vote for in the Republican primary if it were today. The demographics of the respondents were normalized to give the same makeup as the country as a whole for age, gender, race, religion, and education, just as all live-interviewer polls do. The 3 million people who signed up with SurveyMonkey were all self selected, so this is not a normal poll. Still, it is better than nothing for the moment. Here are the results.

Candidate Now Last week Change
Donald Trump 23% 22% +1%
Ted Cruz 13% 6% +7%
Ben Carson 11% 8% +3%
Carly Fiorina 8% 2% +6%
Marco Rubio 8% 8% (No change)
Jeb Bush 7% 10% -3%
Scott Walker 7% 10$ -3%
Rand Paul 5% 6% -1%
Mike Huckabee 5% 4% +1%
Rick Perry 2% 2% (No change)
John Kasich 2% 3% -1%
Lindsey Graham 1% 1% (No change)
Bobby Jindal 1% 1% (No change)
Chris Christie 1% 3% -2%
Rick Santorum 0% 1% -1%
George Pataki 0% 0% (No change)

They apparently forgot about Jim Gilmore. They are not the only ones, however.

The tentative conclusion here is that despite much hand-wringing in the pundit class, Donald Trump has not taken a nose dive for his antics. A possible explanation is that for 23% of the Republican base the most important characteristic of a candidate is not his her knowledge, policies, or electability, but his or her (think Sarah Palin here) willingness to poke a finger in the eye of anyone suspected of being a liberal or an expert. There is a lot of resentment out there and from time to time it becomes visible.

Takeaways from the RedState Gathering

In 2006, Markos Moulitsas, the founder of Daily Kos organized a convention then called Yearly Kos (now called Netroots Nation). It was a big success, with 1,200 attendees and some major politicians such as Harry Reid, Barbara Boxer, and Howard Dean showing up and giving speeches. Its success inspired Erick Erickson, founder of Daily Kos' conservative counterpart, RedState, to organize a similar event for conservative activists. This year's edition just finished. Nine Republican candidates for President showed up. Initially Donald Trump was invited, but after he got into a bloody fight with Megyn Kelly, Erickson disinvited him. Even Erickson, who generally agrees with Trump's positions, felt the attack on Kelly was way over the line. Here are Politico's takeaways from the event.

  • This was Ted Cruz turf
  • Keep an eye on Scott Walker in the South
  • Jeb held his own in hostile territory
  • There were lots of Carly Fiorina fans, but not necessarily Carly Fiorina voters
  • The Trump tide may be turning
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---The Votemaster