Obama 332
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Romney 206
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Dem 46
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GOP 54
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  • Strongly Dem (191)
  • Likely Dem (72)
  • Barely Dem (69)
  • Exactly tied (0)
  • Barely GOP (15)
  • Likely GOP (16)
  • Strongly GOP (175)
270 Electoral votes needed to win Map algorithm explained
New polls: (None)
Dem pickups: (None)
GOP pickups: IN NC

News from the Votemaster

The Republican Presidential Candidates

Below is the list of 2016 Republican presidential candidates in roughly the the order of most likely to be nominated to least likely. The strengths and weaknesses of each one in the primaries are listed. Note that what is a strength in the primaries may be a weakness in the general election and vice versa. For example, Scott Walker's defeating the unions in Wisconsin will be a real plus in the primaries but would enormously motivate the unions in the general election.

Candidate Advantages in Primaries Disadvantages in Primaries
Jeb Bush
Jeb Bush
  • Probably the most electable candidate
  • Executive experience galore
  • Huge battle-tested field operation
  • Massive party backing and endorsements
  • From the mother of all swing states
  • More money than Uncle Scrooge
  • Grass roots hates him
  • Wrong positions on immigration & Common Core
  • Is going to have to defend his unpopular brother
  • Married to a Latina
  • Barbara Bush: "We've had enough Bushes"
  • How did he earn his millions in the past 10 years?
Scott Walker
Scott Walker
  • Acceptable to all wings of the party
  • Fought and beat the unions
  • Actually governed as a conservative
  • Won three elections in a blue state
  • New to the national scene
  • Would boost Democratic turnout in the general
  • Failed to create 250,000 jobs as promised
  • Weak on foreign policy
  • Didn't graduate from college; is he too dumb?
  • Has never faced a presidential electorate
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio
  • American-dream type biography
  • Latino
  • Telegenic
  • Very charismatic and likable
  • From the mother of all swing states
  • First term senator
  • Something of a lightweight on policy
  • Supported Senate immigration bill before he opposed it
John Kasich
John Kasich
  • Could be establishment fallback if Bush stumbles
  • Twice elected in swing state of Ohio
  • Would win some Democrats in general election
  • Not well known
  • Running on competence not ideology
  • Said St. Peter likes poor people
  • Supported Medicaid expansion in Ohio
  • Supports Common Core
Ted Cruz
Ted Cruz
  • Republican establishment hates him
  • Called Mitch McConnell a liar
  • Tea party darling
  • Young, fiery, and very conservative
  • Surprisingly good at fund raising
  • Excellent speaker and debater
  • Latino
  • Republican establishment hates him
  • First-term senator
  • Masterminded the 2013 government shutdown
  • Maybe too much of a firebrand for some voters
Rick Perry
Rick Perry
  • Elected governor of Texas three times
  • Knows the big donors in Texas
  • Looks intellectual in new glasses
  • Probably smarter than George W. Bush
  • 2012 Oops! moment will follow him to the grave
  • Thinks U.S. politics is like Texas politics
  • I don't remember the third one
Rand Paul
Rand Paul
  • Could bring in new Republican voters
  • Inherits his father's zealots
  • Dislikes Big Government spying on people
  • Doesn't like wars
  • Doesn't support "Israel good, Arabs bad" policy
  • More of a libertarian than a conservative
  • Was cheered at UC Berkeley
  • Establishment is luke warm on him
Chris Christie
Chris Christie
  • Aggressive character
  • Ran the RGA well; popular with governors
  • Won election twice in a blue state
  • #3 with establishment after Bush and Kasich
  • Would probably bring in some Democrats
  • Polling badly in home state
  • Hugged Obama
  • Last fat President was William Howard Taft; but White House bathtub is bigger now
  • We'll cross that bridge when we come to it--if it is open
Carly Fiorina
Carly Fiorina
  • Ran a Fortune 500 company
  • Can attack Clinton without being called sexist
  • Took on liberal icon Barbara Boxer in 2010
  • Self-made multimillionaire
  • Could self fund in the primaries
  • Was fired from a Fortune 500 Company
  • Got $20 million severance when fired
  • Was crushed by Barbara Boxer in 2010
  • No natural constituency
Mike Huckabee
Mike Huckabee
  • Good sense of humor and very likable
  • Ordained Baptist minister
  • Southerner in a party whose base is the South
  • Well known due to 2008 run and Fox show
  • Economic populist
  • As Arkansas governor raised taxes repeatedly
  • Very poor fundraiser
  • Did badly in 2008 against a much weaker field
Bobby Jindal
Bobby Jindal
  • Is great at tossing red meat to the base
  • Tons of executive experience
  • Might bring in some minority voters
  • Disastrous SOTU reply in 2009
  • Not a dynamic speaker
  • Indian-American in a nearly all white party
  • Still "Bobby" at 44 (but Bobby Kennedy did it)
Rick Santorum
Rick Santorum
  • Been around the track before
  • Won Iowa caucuses in 2012
  • Very strong social conservative
  • Comes from a big blue state
  • Didn't win in a much weaker 2012 field
  • One-trick pony: only social conservatism
  • Tends to lecture people and not likable
Lindsey Graham
Lindsey Graham
  • Knowledgeable on foreign policy
  • Talks more about Beghazi than anyone
  • Kind of folksy
  • From the South
  • Base hates him
  • Lifelong bachelor in family values party
  • Short and dresses like a used-car salesman
George Pataki
George Pataki
  • Was elected governor of a blue state three times
  • George Who?
Ben Carson
Ben Carson
  • Devoted following
  • Fiery speaker
  • Not taken seriously by the establishment
  • Was an extremely competent neurosurgeon
  • Gaffe prone
  • He's black in a nearly all white party
  • Never held public office
Jim Gilmore
Jim Gilmore
  • Nobody hates him
  • Nobody ever heard of him
  • Lost 2008 Senate race to Mark Warner by 31 points
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
  • Actually created thousands of jobs
  • Can't be bribed by anyone
  • Says things no one else dares to say
  • Sort of endorsed by Sarah Palin
  • Washington outsider
  • Loved by "poke-'em-in-the-eye" wing of the party
  • Would be crushed by Clinton
  • Establishment will do anything to stop him
  • Used to be fairly liberal
  • Demeaned John McCain's war record
  • Made sexist remark to Megyn Kelly

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---The Votemaster