Conventional

Donald Trump was, of course, very critical of the Democratic National Convention. The recurring complaints were that: (1) it was boring, (2) it was a downer, and (3) it was too focused on the Democratic base. Team Trump promised to draw on the President's mad reality TV star skillz to put together a far more entertaining and upbeat convention that would appeal to swing voters. They did none of these things:

• Stagecraft: We could write this entire item focusing solely on stagecraft, so let's start there. And, in fact, let's start with the good news for Team Red. It was not a disaster, particularly given the tight timeframe, and was well done from a technical perspective. The two main sets were very nice, and technical glitches were few and far between. Producer Sadoux Kim earned his paycheck. Whether he'll get it, working for Donald Trump as he is, is a different question.
  
  In addition, some of the speakers were very effective and very smooth. Nikki Haley has been around the block a few times, and knows how to deliver the goods. The same is true of Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC). Among the non-politicians, the star of the night was Cuban-American immigrant Maximo Alvarez, who delivered his seven minutes of remarks with great feeling:
  
  
  
  Note that Alvarez' basic argument—that Joe Biden is a budding Fidel Castro—is ridiculous, but at least he makes it with conviction.
  
  And now on to the criticism. Given all the talk of being more "dynamic" and "entertaining" and "creative" than the DNC, the first night of the RNC was as paint-by-numbers as is possible. If you had asked us to predict how the Party might open things, we would have guessed: "Montage of patriotic images, like the Statue of Liberty, backed by dramatic music, and with dramatic narration by either Jon Voight or James Woods." In fact, it was a montage of patriotic images, including the Statue of Liberty, backed by dramatic music, and with dramatic narration by Jon Voight.
  
  Beyond that, the Republicans broke normal convention format...virtually not at all. It was very conventional. The 2016 RNC was a dozen or so 5-10 minute speeches, with a handful of compilation videos interspersed. The first night of the 2020 RNC was a dozen or so 5-10 minute speeches, with a handful of compilation videos interspersed. The only real difference between the two was the lack of an audience this time around. The 2020 DNC, by contrast, marked a clear departure from normal convention format, with shorter speeches and much more reliance on short- and medium-length video montages and "regular folks" comments. Remarkably, given that Team Trump was very critical of the Democrats for relying on so many pre-recorded speeches, only three of last night's speeches were actually live (Haley, Scott, and RNC Chair Ronna Romney McDaniel).
  
  The problem, incidentally, with letting people speak for longer periods of time (beyond it being boring) is that the flaws in their addresses become more evident. Donald Trump Jr. was expected to be one of the stars of the night, but, as he is not an experienced politician, he chose to deliver his stump speech in stump-speech style. Probably works great with a crowd, but is odd and out-of-place without one (Scott and Haley adopted a more conversational, "fireside chat"-type approach). It is also our guess that Trump Jr. was ailing in some way; his eyes were watering and bloodshot, and his face was pink and swollen.
  
  That said, it was Trump Jr.'s girlfriend, Kimberly Guilfoyle, who gave the speech that is most emblematic of the evening (and that has generated the most punchlines):
  
  
  
  The rhetoric was very dark and very over the top. As to the delivery, well, let's just say that the joke is already making the rounds that Guilfoyle was so inappropriately high energy that she made Howard Dean seem like Jeb! (who has got to be thoroughly sick of low-energy jokes by now).
  
  Returning to the DNC one more time, it is possible that the single most interesting part of that convention was the roll-call vote, if only to see how each state chose to present itself (Diverse? Beautiful scenery? Pro-military? Pro-calamari?). This seemed one place where the RNC might do something a little different, and maybe even equally (or more?) interesting. Nope. The GOP blasted through that part in perhaps 90 seconds (maybe less); giving each state and territory only enough time to say its name.
  
  And finally, very little attention was apparently paid to the running order of the speeches and other bits, which sometimes created some jarring incongruities. The most obvious occasion came when the remarks of Andrew Pollack, who lost a daughter in the Parkland High School shootings, were followed immediately by the remarks of the McCloskeys, the St. Louis couple who were arrested for brandishing their guns in the direction of Black Lives Matter protesters who presumed to pass by their house. Seems a little clumsy to us.
  
  In the end, when it comes to stagecraft, we are doubly mystified. Trump really is a reality TV producer, and he got (some of) the band back together. This was their best shot? And further, why would they set expectations so high, knowing full well they had literally nothing different or new up their sleeves? Maybe they think the viewers that matter (the base) either didn't watch the DNC or else will believe the RNC is better because The Donald says it's better. Period.
  
  
• Theme 1: The American Dream: As noted, Team Trump promised a more uplifting convention than the DNC delivered. The GOP did make a nod toward something aspirational, as numerous speakers made "The American Dream," as lived by them and their parents, an element of their addresses. That said, "The American Dream" is basically just a platitude if you don't have ideas about how to make it accessible to more people.
  
  
• Theme 2: A Platform?: So what did we hear of the Party's plans, should Trump hold the White House for another 4 years? Not much. He's twice been asked in high-profile interviews what his goals for a second term would be, and twice came up blank. His team has reportedly settled on "school choice" and "reining in China" as winners, and on Monday there were several references made to school choice. Whether that is likely to make the American Dream accessible to more people is an open question. Whether making that policy a major plank in the platform makes sense at this historical moment? Dubious. Anyhow, presumably we'll be hearing more about China on future evenings (beyond "China virus" references, which were plentiful Monday).
  
  
• Theme 3: COVID-19: Speaking of COVID-19, it's the 800-pound virus in the room. There's no way Donald can get away from it; he's got to confront the issue head-on, one way or another. One possibility would be to admit that mistakes were made, but to point out progress that is being made now. Of course, the President does not admit mistakes, so that's out. A second possibility would be to simply ignore the first four months of the pandemic, and to talk about affirmative steps that the White House has taken in July and August. This is probably the best available option.
  
  Of course, that is not the option that Trump chose. Instead, backed by a video that made Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY), and other Democrats look like Satan's minions, the President chose to rewrite history, making the case that Democrats universally pooh-poohed the seriousness of the disease, and that he was the only one who saw it as a major threat from the beginning. Uh, huh. The President's team also found a doctor, Dr. G.E. Ghali, to talk about what a fantastic job Trump is doing these days, and how a COVID-19 treatment is surely imminent. Perhaps nobody will notice that in a nation with hundreds of thousands of immunologists, epidemiologists, and pulmonologists, the best Team Trump could come up with was an oral surgeon.
  
  
• Theme 4: Uncle Donald: Last week, we proposed that Joe Biden cannot run for the position of CEO of USA, Inc., and Donald Trump cannot run for the position of America's kindly uncle. The skill sets just don't match. That did not stop the Republicans from trying to sell Trump as Mr. Empathy, though. His two appearances on Monday (he didn't actually give a speech) were roundtable-type setups where he talked with first responders and then later with hostages his administration has rescued. He asked about their stories, and tried to seem interested and engaged, but he just can't do it. Oh, and for a president who takes COVID-19 so very seriously, nobody was wearing a mask, and the participants were not appropriately distanced.
  
  In addition to Trump trying to do his nice guy impression, quite a few speakers, including McDaniel, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), and football player Herschel Walker, emphasized how kind and warm the President is in private, when the cameras are off. You'll just have to take their word for it. Interestingly, the Monday speaker who would theoretically be most able to speak to that, namely Donald Trump Jr., said nary a word on the subject.
  
  
• Theme 5: Diversity: The Trump campaign is trying to peel off a few Black voters, reasoning (correctly) that in a state like Georgia or Florida or Michigan, that could be decisive. And on Monday, they pretty much expended all their powder on that front, deploying pretty much all of the prominent people of color in the Party who still back Trump, among them Haley and Scott (along with "Democratic" State Rep. Vernon Jones of Georgia, who voted for Trump, Bush 43 twice, Romney, and McCain, and so doesn't seem like much of a Democrat). They all made variants of a similar argument, that Democrats now take Black voters for granted, and don't do anything for them, such that a "plantation mentality" has set in. This is not a new argument, and it certainly hasn't worked so far. Trump is polling around 7% among Black voters. And with Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) on the ticket, that might even be the high point for Trump.
  
  
• Theme 6: Fear and Loathing On the Campaign Trail '20: We left this one for last because it was the dominant theme of the night, the one that ran through nearly every video and speech. It took a grand total of 15 seconds for the first racist dog whistle, when Jon Voight, in his opening narration, alluded to "a country where lives matter regardless of race, creed or color." Many more whistles (and bullhorns) followed, as the Party explained to you exactly whom you should fear or hate (or both).
  
  Leading the list, and appearing in virtually every speech, was some variant of "the radical leftist agenda." The other things that viewers were told to fear or hate by at least one speaker (and often by many): criminals, mob rule, gangs, rioters, drug addicts, unionists, immigrants, the United Nations, the Chinese, the Iranians, ISIS, Marxists, Communists, revolutionaries, socialists, people who want to take your guns, liberals, the "liberal victim complex," cancel culture, Democrats, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, The Squad, Nancy Pelosi, Bernie Sanders, the swamp, the media, college professors, Hollywood celebrities, hedge fund managers, and tech moguls. If you didn't make the list at least once or twice, what have you been doing with your life, really?
  
  It seemed to us that, last week, the Democrats kept their focus almost exclusively on the President, with occasional nods to his "enablers," and avoided condemnations of vast swaths of the American public. Not so the Republicans.
  
  
• Liar Liar, Pants on Fire: Presumably you already know this from what we've already written, not to mention what you know of Trump. But just in case: As the Republicans said what they wanted to say on Monday, they lied left, right, and sideways. It took only 25 seconds for the first baldfaced lie, when Jon Voight declared that Donald Trump is "a man who loves America and all Americans." Does anyone, even his base, believe that? Indeed, don't they love him because he hates the right people? Here is CNN's main headline as of 11:00 p.m. PT Monday:
  
  
  
  We could run down the litany, but writing that much takes time, and we do have to post this sometime before the RNC ends. Beyond that, we're not sure our server has that much storage space. The lie that is getting the most attention, beyond the rewriting of COVID-19 history, is the claim made early in the evening that Donald Trump delivered on every single campaign promise. All that was missing was an aerial photo of the 2,000-mile wall on the Mexican border and a shot of the 450,000,000,000 peso check from Mexico that paid for it.
  
  
• For the Base: You've probably figured it out by now but, in any case, the biggest question of the convention is now answered: Would Trump use one of his last chances to reach a broad audience to try and expand his reach, or would he use it to amp up the base? The answer, as it always seems to be, is "amp up the base." To say that even 10% of Monday's material was addressed to independent/centrist/wavering voters would be generous. It was red, red, red, red meat, all night long, with Haley's and Scott's speeches the partial exceptions. It's almost like they are thinking about running for president in four years, and need to keep their irons in multiple fires.

One down, three to go. It's possible that Tuesday night will witness a major switch in gears, but we doubt it. (Z)

Jacob Blake Shooting, Response Provide Backdrop for RNC

In 1968, both conventions were enmeshed in violence, as protesters and cops battled in both Chicago and Miami Beach. That is less of a risk this year, given the virtual nature of the conventions. But note that we didn't say zero risk. The Democrats got a peaceful week last week, but the Republicans are not so lucky, as violence is currently unfolding in Kenosha, WI.

As most folks have heard by now, the proximate cause of the violence is the shooting of Jacob Blake. Blake is Black and was unarmed and either did not hear or did not obey officers as they approached him Monday and told him to stop moving. As he tried to open the door of a gray SUV, an officer grabbed him by the shirt and at least seven shots were fired as Blake's children (in the car) looked on. The footage is pretty rough, so we are not going to embed it, as we would not want anyone to see it accidentally if they did not wish to do so. However, you can see it here should you care to make your own judgments. Watching it, simply drawing the guns in the first place appears to be indefensible. Firing more than half a dozen shots, at close range, into the back of an unarmed man, is unquestionably indefensible.

Thus far, Blake is still alive, and in the ICU. The three officers have been placed on leave, pending a review. And for two nights, Kenosha has seen protests and some violence, including destruction of property. The police response has been aggressive, including multiple arrests and mass tear-gassing of protesters.

From a political standpoint, it is easy enough for Black Lives Matter supporters, and their allies, to point to this as yet another example of what they have been talking about. It is also easy enough for pro-police/anti-BLM folks to point to this as evidence that this movement is more about violence and rioting than it is about political change. This was, by the way, exactly how the fault lines broke in 1968, with some voters taking the side of protesters and others taking the side of the authorities. If all of this had happened last week, there is no way Joe Biden could have avoided the hot potato, given that he's trying to be the candidate of racial justice. Donald Trump probably could, but the question is: Will he? Specifically, can the President avoid the temptation to point to this as yet another example of things white suburbanites should be scared about? Given how ugly the video is, that would probably be an unwise call, but the Donald has never been known for his impulse control. (Z)

FDA Grossly Misrepresented the Value of the Blood Plasma Treatment

Everyone saw this coming, and sure enough it came. On Sunday, Donald Trump announced a revolutionary new treatment for COVID-19 that was going to save lots of lives. Only it won't. The whole thing is a house of cards, and a lot of the blame belongs on the shoulders of FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn.

Hahn approved the treatment based on a study done by the Mayo Clinic, one of the most respected medical organizations in the world. But here's the catch: Hahn's claim that 35% of the COVID-19 patients can be saved by the treatment is nowhere to be found in the study. When scientists dug deeper in to the data, they saw that the probability of surviving 30 days was 76% for patients receiving high level of antibodies vs. 63% for patients receiving a low level of antibodies. A proper study would have had a control group getting no antibodies. And a 13% improvement is not 35%. And surviving 30 days isn't exactly a cure. But there is more. People who were over 80 and people on ventilators weren't counted. In other words, among younger patients who weren't all that sick, giving lots of antibodies improves the 30-day survival rate by 13% over patients who got a low-level of antibodies.

Dr. Eric Topol, a professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research in La Jolla, CA, and an expert in clinical trials, said the plasma does not have the benefit Hahn claimed and he should issue a correction. Topol added: "He needs to come out with that, and until he does, he has no credibility as an FDA commissioner." That's pretty strong language. Topol, who is an expert on clinical trials, is effectively saying that Hahn, who is not, should be fired.

For quite some time now, scientists have worried that Hahn would cave to pressure from Trump to fudge the data or approve treatments or vaccines that were not proven safe or effective. Now it appears precisely that is happening, and on the President's required timeline, since he needed something COVID-19 related to brag about at the convention (and the blood plasma "breakthrough" came up more than once). Future announcements about progress on COVID-19 by Hahn and Trump unfortunately now have to be taken with a mouthful of salt. The FDA was always a highly respected agency that protected the lives of Americans. Now it, like the Postal Service, has become part of Donald Trump's reelection campaign rather than the proud independent agency it once was. (V)

Many Republicans Endorse Biden

In a move obviously timed to coincide with the first day of the RNC, more than two dozen Republican former members of Congress announced their endorsement of Joe Biden. Here is the list, including their highest office held and the state they represented:

• Sen. Jeff Flake (AZ)
• Sen. Gordon Humphrey (NH)
• Sen. John Warner (VA)
• Rep. Steve Bartlett (TX)
• Rep. Bill Clinger (PA)
• Rep. Tom Coleman (MO)
• Rep. Charlie Dent (PA)
• Rep. Charles Djou (HI)
• Rep. Mickey Edwards (OK)
• Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (MD)
• Rep. Jim Greenwood (PA)
• Rep. Bob Inglis (SC)
• Rep. Jim Kolbe (AZ)
• Rep. Steve Kuykendall (CA)
• Rep. Ray LaHood (IL)
• Rep. Jim Leach (IA)
• Rep. Susan Molinari (NY)
• Rep. Connie Morella (MD)
• Rep. Mike Parker (MS)
• Rep. Jack Quinn (NY)
• Rep. Claudine Schneider (RI)
• Rep. Christopher Shays (CT)
• Rep. Peter Smith (VT)
• Rep. Alan Steelman (TX)
• Rep. Jim Walsh (NY)
• Rep. Bill Whitehurst (VA)
• Rep. Dick Zimmer (NJ)

This presumably won't matter much, but every bit helps. Meanwhile, at some point, someone might notice that the only Republican politicians not currently in office who will be speaking at the convention are Nikki Haley, former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Rudy Giuliani. It's almost like Republican officials who are not directly under Trump's thumb, in one way or another, want nothing to do with him or his version of the Party.

In addition, one day after George Conway announced his departure, the Lincoln Project picked up a high-profile replacement for its masthead when former RNC Chair Michael Steele said he was coming on board. He's a marketing guy, so that's presumably a good pickup. (Z)

No Convention Bounce for Biden

Politico/Morning Consult released a new poll on Monday, which ostensibly shows that the presidential race is effectively unchanged from before the Democratic National Convention. Joe Biden is at 48% favorable, up from 46% in the last poll conducted by this partnership. Biden is up 10 points nationally on Donald Trump (52% to 42%), compared to 8 points previously (51% to 43%).

The truth is, we'll never really know if the DNC, in its new format, helped Biden. If Biden 2020 managed to pick up 1% of voters due to the convention, they would be thrilled. If it was 2%, they would be over the moon, since that's about the realistic upper limit. But, of course, polls can't accurately measure movements that small. Further, the probable effect of the convention was not to win new converts, but more likely to solidify the support of some voters who weren't 100% sure. That's also not easy to measure. And then add to this the short window between the DNC and RNC, and the relative paucity of polling as a result, and we do not have, and will never have, the data to judge the efficacy of the DNC. (Z)

Falwell Saga Grows More Sordid...Maybe a Lot More

The drama surrounding Jerry Falwell Jr., who may be Donald Trump's most prominent evangelical supporter, continues to grow. It was reported on Monday that Falwell's suspension from the presidency of Liberty University had turned into a resignation. Then Falwell declared he hadn't resigned at all. Then it was reported that he had resigned but then changed his mind. If that is true, it seems unlikely that the university's board of regents will turn down the "get out of Falwell's contract for free" card they were given, and that they will not allow him to recant. Time will tell.

Meanwhile, more details about Falwell's recent meltdown continue to present themselves. On Monday, he conceded that his wife had "an affair" and that there was blackmail involved. On Tuesday, Reuters reported that the truth is that Falwell liked to watch while his wife had relations with their friend, former pool boy, now business partner, Giancarlo Granda. There is nothing wrong with this; what consenting adults do in private is their own business. However, it does run entirely contrary to Falwell's public persona, along with his willingness to weigh in on the sexual morés of others.

It gets seamier. It was already known that Donald Trump fixer Michael Cohen helped Falwell reacquire some "racy" photos that were being used for blackmail purposes. It's not too hard to leap to the conclusion that the photos in question were held by Granda (or, possibly, some other paramour with whom the Falwells had a relationship). And it's not too far a leap from there to suspect, as some already do, that a photos-for-your-hearty-endorsement deal was struck in 2016.

This is not proof, of course. However, in an interesting coincidence that might prove to be not-so-coincidental, the company that owns the National Enquirer forced out CEO David Pecker this weekend. Pecker was also a dealer in blackmail-type documents of interest to Trump, acquiring them and keeping them in his personal safe, and undoubtedly dealt with Cohen many times. Add it all up, and all of this movement may be an early indication that Cohen's book, Disloyal: A Memoir: The True Story of the Former Personal Attorney to President Donald J. Trump could be a barnburner that scorches many, many people, and possibly even damages the President. We will find out when the book drops early next month (Sept. 8). (Z)

Trump Effectively Loses Pennsylvania Case

The Trump administration, as part of its ongoing campaign to toss a wrench into the election, filed suit in Pennsylvania, asking federal judge (and Trump appointee) Nicholas Ranjan to void most of the steps the state has taken to make absentee balloting easier, arguing that these steps facilitate fraud. Ranjan asked for proof, didn't get it, and declared that he is not going to get involved until, at very least, the state level courts have had their say (and maybe not even then).

This is important for a few reasons. First, because there is not likely to be time for the state-level process to play out and then for a federal process to play out. So, Trump's lawsuit in a key swing state is effectively dead. Second, because it reminds us that federal judges (even Trump appointees) are very leery of infringing on the states' prerogative to run elections as they see fit. That leeriness will grow greater every day closer to the election we get. Third, because Ranjan was clearly willing to get involved if significant evidence of fraud was presented. The fact that he backed off means that, in case you didn't already know, Team Trump has no proof of their claims. That's not likely to be a helpful situation in future lawsuits. (Z)

Letitia James Is Not Happy with the Trump Organization

New York AG Letitia James is overseeing an investigation into the Trump Organization. Consequent to that, she subpoenaed the business for documents necessary to the investigation, and also Eric Trump personally for an interview. Of course, in the Trump family, subpoenas are for suckers, and so they were ignored. Young Trump says he has a constitutional right to ignore subpoenas; strange that no other person in hot water ever invoked that "right."

On Monday, James responded to the obstructionism by filing a lengthy document in court, asking a judge to compel the Trump Organization to provide both the documents and the son. In so doing, she revealed much about the scope of her investigation that was not previously known, including that it has been going on for 18 months, covers years both before and during the presidency, and is focused upon, other things, failure to pay taxes on loan forgiveness.

At the moment, the investigation is purely civil, though it could add up to millions of dollars in fines the Trumps don't have. It's also not too hard for James to check the "criminal" box on the form, depending on what she finds. In fact, she may already be thinking criminal, but may prefer not to say it out loud, for fear of flushing her quarry too early. In any event, the Trumps will presumably be able to stall until after the election, but regardless of what happens on Nov. 3, they are going to have plenty to worry about in 2021. (Z)

Today's Presidential Polls

On one hand, these races are all close. On the other hand, look how few undecideds there are. Assuming these were all completely correct (not likely, but assume), Donald Trump would have to take about 80% of the undecideds to win North Carolina, about 60% to win Texas, and about 58% to win Ohio. Not probable, since Biden has a double-digit lead among undecideds nationally (who are asked which direction they are leaning). And these are all must-have states for the President. (Z)

State	Biden	Trump	Start	End	Pollster
North Carolina	49%	46%	Aug 14	Aug 23	Morning Consult
Ohio	47%	46%	Jul 28	Aug 03	TargetSmart
Texas	48%	47%	Aug 21	Aug 22	PPP

Today's Senate Polls

The NRSC has got to be getting close to cutting Thom Tillis loose, and letting him go it on his own. He's behind in every poll, usually by a bunch, and North Carolina is really expensive to campaign in. Better to take that money and spend it in the smaller, cheaper states of Maine, Montana, and Iowa. (Z)

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	Start	End	Pollster
North Carolina	Cal Cunningham	47%	Thom Tillis*	39%	Aug 14	Aug 23	Morning Consult

* Denotes incumbent

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