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Democratic Presidential Candidate of the Week, #30: Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA)

We try to get to one of these a week. Some weeks, it doesn't work out. Anyhow, here are the candidates we've done so far:

And now, it's Mark Warner's turn to take a ride.

Full Name: Mark Robert Warner
Age on January 20, 2029: 74
Background: Warner is one of those politicians—we've encountered a few others already in this series—who was an overachiever to the point of being obnoxious. Born in Indianapolis and raised in Connecticut, he was president of his class in high school, and was valedictorian of his college class, graduating George Washington University with a perfect 4.0 GPA. That was followed by Harvard Law School, from which he graduated in 1980.

Warner has never practiced as a lawyer, instead preferring to pursue a career in business. He had one startup fail, then a second, but hit pay dirt with his third attempt, which involved getting in on the ground floor of the explosion in cell phone usage. He founded Columbia Capital, a venture capital firm, and later formed Capital Cellular Corporation. He had a nose for good investments, with the result that he is the second-wealthiest member of Congress right now, with a net worth around $250 million. That trails only Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), who is worth $550 million. It also makes Warner the only Democrat in the Top 10 wealthiest members of Congress.
Political Experience: Warner says that his interest in politics was sparked by his eighth grade social studies teacher, who encouraged students to get involved in changing the world. That was 1968, so there were a fair number of opportunities to do just that.

During his college years, Warner worked in various capacities related to politics, including serving in the offices of Sens. Chris Dodd and Abraham Ribicoff (both D-CT), and working on Ella Grasso's (D) successful campaign for the governorship of Connecticut. During the business phase of his career, Warner was involved in a wide variety of activist causes, and was appointed to several advisory boards and councils, such as the Virginia Commonwealth Transportation Board. He managed Douglas Wilder's (D) successful campaign for governor of Virginia, and was chair of the Virginia Democratic Party from 1993-95.

The first time Warner's name was on a ballot was when he ran for the U.S. Senate in 1996. The good news is that Warner won. The bad news is that it wasn't Mark Warner, it was the Republican candidate, Sen. John Warner. They later became fast friends, and John ultimately endorsed Mark as his successor.

Before that second Senate run, however, Warner decided to try for the Virginia governor's mansion. Virginia was trending blue in 2001, plus Virginia gubernatorial elections usually go against the party that holds the White House (so, the Republicans and George W. Bush, at that time). During his Senate run, Warner had done unexpectedly well with rural voters, and so he made that a focus of his 2001 campaign. It paid off, it would seem, as he won the election by 5 points (52%-47%).

Warner had a wildly successful run as governor of Virginia, with an approval rating that was regularly in the 70s, and that sometimes got into the 80s. He overhauled the state's transportation network, worked with Republicans to reform the state tax code, and invested heavily in education. Limited to one term by Virginia law, he was able to pass the job to his handpicked successor, Tim Kaine.

Democrats have been in the habit of drooling over popular, centrist Southern governors for at least half a century, so Warner was considered a serious contender for the party's 2008 presidential nomination, very much along the lines of Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) today. He went through some of the early motions, like going to the Iowa State Fair and eating fried stuff on a stick. However, he eventually took a pass, due to "family reasons," and decided instead to run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by his nemesis-turned-friend John Warner. The Republicans probably shouldn't have wasted their time putting up a candidate in that election, since their nominee, Jim Gilmore, was crushed by Warner, 65% to 33%. That's 32 points! In a purple state! Warner's reelection was MUCH closer (he won by just 1 point), while his second reelection was comfortable, but not THAT lopsided (he won by 12 points).
Signature Issue(s): By virtue of his background, his specialty is cybersecurity. By virtue of his committee service (his most prominent assignment is as vice-chair of the Select Committee on Intelligence), his specialty is intelligence. Taken together, he's probably Congress' foremost expert on election security.
What Would His Pitch Be?: "I can win back the Obama-Trump voters!"
Instructive Quote: When Warner was in college, his parents visited D.C., and he used his connections in the Senate to secure them two tickets for a White House tour. When his father asked why he was not joining them, Warner said: "I'll see the White House when I'm president."
Completely Trivial Fact: Warner is a basketball fanatic. He coached the first women's intramural team at Harvard, and has been staging weekly pickup games at his residence for more than 50 years.
Recent News: Warner, who takes intelligence and national security seriously, has been publicly sparring with DNI Tulsi Gabbard, who does not.
Strengths for the Democratic Primaries: (1) Warner is a very "safe" candidate, by virtue of his race, age, and home state, and some/many Democratic primary voters are looking for someone safe; (2) He has managed campaigns, has worked in party management, and has run his own campaigns, and so he knows the process better than just about anyone; and (3) It's not impossible, depending on the extent to which Donald Trump manages/mismanages foreign affairs, that experience in foreign policy will be a key thing that voters are looking for in 2028.
Weaknesses for the Democratic Primaries: (1) We have written this many times, and will write it many times more, but after the Joe Biden Experience, Democratic voters are going to be leery of septuagenarian (and older) candidates for a very long time; (2) It is also improbable that Democratic voters will be OK with a hecto-millionaire candidate; and (3) Warner is a somewhat bland public speaker, and his 2008 DNC Keynote was not well received.
Polls: Nobody is polling Warner as a presidential candidate, but they do poll his approval as a U.S. Senator. Gone are the days where an approval rating in the 70s or 80s was possible; these days, about 47% of Virginia voters approve of him. That doesn't seem great, but it puts Warner about 8 points ahead of the state's most popular Republican, Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA).
How Does the Readership Feel?: We asked readers for their thoughts on Warner running for president; here are some of those responses:
- J.C. in Honolulu, HI: When I was in college, I remember a key Senate Race pitting Warner vs. Warner. That was back in 1996! I am preparing to retire from my profession here in a few short years. I think Mark Warner should be doing the same.
- P.D.N. in Boardman, OH: I see Warner as a very viable Democratic presidential candidate. He's bright, engaging, non-threatening, likable and he has some gravitas, which the country would appreciate after The Convicted Felon's gross incompetence. There are no obvious turnoffs. He's won election as senator three times, so he's popular. His experience in telecommunications makes him (appear) hip and appealing to the young. He's from a pretty blue and definitely Southern state and his candidacy could help swing North Carolina to the Blue Team.
- J.J. in Johnstown, PA: Not happening. He's not charismatic at all, and he's a policy wonk in the age of personality politics. Sure, he's very qualified, by virtue of his elective office experience and stints as chair/vice chair of the Intelligence Committee. However, he's got major John Kerry vibes in that he's very wealthy and always looks and sounds tired. There's probably a reason for that: He'll be in his mid-70s when the next president is sworn in. If he runs and wins re-election next year, I could see him getting the John Kerry treatment: an important cabinet position. Probably Secretary of State or DNI. Fairly, or unfairly, the next nominee will not be anyone who is old enough to qualify for Social Security when they take office.
- K.T. in Oakdale, NY: Warner may have had a strong background for a presidential run 20 years ago, but the time for men like him at the top of the Democratic ticket, I believe, has passed for the time being. After the post-Obama run of Democratic candidates that sound like over-rehearsed politicians and the crushing defeat in 2024, the most important quality in any candidate is going to be their ability to communicate and inspire. The collective horror of Joe Biden's debate performance among Democratic voters will demand an outsized emphasis on this for at least the next few presidential cycles. Warner's only lane is the "Safe white man" lane, and he can't compete against the skill of Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) or the folksy likability of Andy Beshear, and they will both also be in that lane. Warner is simply too boring for this moment.
- A.J. in Buffalo, NY: I became convinced during the George W. Bush presidency that the inevitable Hillary Clinton presidential run would end in disaster, and thought the key to victory was a popular Democrat from a red state. Thus, Gov. Mark Warner became my political hero. But he passed on the presidential run in 2008 and, while I was happy to see him win a Senate seat, his speech at the DNC failed to catch fire and I became convinced that he just wasn't up to it. Now it's nearly 20 years later, Virginia is a blue state and Warner is 70. The time to run was in 2008 or maybe 2016, but by now he's missed his chance.
- T.A. in Chicago, IL: Meh.
The Bottom Line: Sorry, Mark. If you wanted to be president, you should have taken the plunge in 2008. Guess you'll never get to see the White House.

Next week, it's #29, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI). If readers have comments about Baldwin running for president in 2028, please send them to comments@electoral-vote.com.

This item appeared on www.electoral-vote.com. Read it Monday through Friday for political and election news, Saturday for answers to reader's questions, and Sunday for letters from readers.

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