Oct. 22 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Senate Dem 50   GOP 49   Ties 1
House Dem 205   GOP 207   Ties 23

House races
Downloadable polling data
Previous report
Next report
Without Rasmussen

strong Dem Strong Dem (47)
weak Dem Weak Dem (1)
barely Dem Barely Dem (2)
tied Exactly tied (1)
barely GOP Barely GOP (4)
weak GOP Weak GOP (5)
strong GOP Strong GOP (40)
strong Ind Strong Ind (0)
weak Ind Weak Ind (0)
barely Ind Barely Ind (0)
Map algorithm explained
Senate polls today: AR CT NY PA iPhone RSS
Dem pickups: (None) GOP pickups: AR CO IL IN NV ND PA WV WI PDA

PW logo Obama Speaks to Gay Teens Cuomo Headed for Blowout in New York
Sessions Says 100 House Seats in Play Gillibrand Wishes for Less Attention to Her Looks
Bonus Quote of the Day Big Shift in Maine

News from the Votemaster            

Bill Clinton Campaigning As If He Were President     Permalink

Normally it is the President who is the leader of his party, but this year it appears to be an ex-President, Bill Clinton, who is flying from state to state holding rallies everywhere. By election day, he will have held over 100 of them, in dozens of states. He is there for Democratic candidates at all levels, with a special preference for candidates who helped his wife in her 2008 presidential run. Although Clinton earned over $100 million from speaking engagements in the past 5 years, he still has the ability to connect with ordinary voters, something President Obama, who is not in his financial league, has trouble with. Part of Clinton's success is that he is a voracious consumer of political news and wherever he goes, can address local issues, whether it is a Boeing tanker deal in Washington state or water issues in New Mexico. Clinton never travels with his wife because as Secretary of State she is forbidden by law from getting involving in electoral politics.

Obama isn't even #2. The other person out there campaigning day and night is the Vice President, Joe Biden. Nevertheless, of late Obama has been out on the hustings, too. Yesterday he was in Seattle campaigning for Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) and focusing on what he has done for women (two Supreme Court appointments, Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, etc.). Today he will visit San Francisco and Los Angeles, where he will hold press events and campaign for Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and then go to Nevada to help the embattled Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV).

The Unseen Battle: State Legislatures     Permalink

While there has been lots of attention paid to the contests for the Senate, House, and governors' mansions, there are also elections for 88 chambers of the state legislatures this year. These are especially important this year because starting in January they will begin the process of gerrymandering the congressional districts (and sometimes their own districts). Currently the Democrats control 55% of the 7,382 state legislative seats, including both chambers in 27 states. The Republicans control 36 chambers and have full control in 14 states. All that could change radically after the election, especially if Republicans pick up governorships in key states. Generally, congressional districts are drawn up by state legislatures and then approved or vetoed by the governor. If one party controls both chambers of the legislature and the governor's mansion, it can do whatever it wants, and with modern data and software, some of the districts could be very exotic. If the power is divided, the parties have to compromise.

Just as the party controlling the White House nearly always takes a drubbing in the Senate and House during midterms, it also gets beaten at the state level. In 25 of the past 27 midterms, the President's party has lost seats in the state legislatures. The only exceptions were in 1934, when people rallied behind FDR, and 2002, when people rallied behind George Bush in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks.

DCCC Borrows $17 Million     Permalink

The DCCC has borrowed $17 million for last-minute TV ads. With $25 million in the bank, this gives them $42 million to spend in the final push. The NRSC has $11 million in the bank but has not taken out any loans. However, the Republicans are getting massive aid from outside groups, including the Chamber of Commerce and Karl Rove's "shadow RNC" American Crossroads, which has raised $24 million so far. While donors to the DCCC and NRCC are limited by law in how much they can give and their names are published, donors to these outside groups can give as much as they want and can remain anonymous. Corporations--possibly including foreign ones controlled by their respective governments--are financing the Chamber of Commerce's ads. The Republicans have also been very successful at getting millionaires to give large contributions to these groups, which is much easier than amassing thousands of small donations. In effect, the McCain-Feingold campaign-finance reform law has become obsolete since much of the campaign financing is now done by outsiders.

Early Voting in Nevada     Permalink

In one of the most contentious Senate races (Nevada) as well as a couple of key House races, early voting has started. The Senate race is Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) vs. tea party favorite Sharron Angle (R). Two of Nevada's three congressional districts are held by Democrats (Shelley Berkley in NV-01 and Dina Titus in NV-03) and both are in play. Election officials expect over half the voters to cast early ballots in the state. In midterm elections, when turnout is typically low, the long early voting period gives both parties more time to get their voters to the polls. This helps Democrats more than Republicans because Republicans always turn out in large numbers in midterm elections without much prodding, whereas Democrats (especially younger and minority voters) do not.

Nevada is not the only state with early voting, of course. It has begun all over the country. In North Carolina, for example, 156,000 people have already voted, 55% of whom are Republicans. This is a huge reversal of the Democrats' 58% to 42% margin in early voting in 2008. In Iowa, however, 55% of the 145,000 early ballots have come from Democrats--way down from a 2 to 1 advantage in 2008. It is the same story everywhere. In terms of party registration, the Democrats still lead, but Republicans are fired up and voting and Democrats are not.

Today's Polls: AR CT NY PA MA-04 MD-01 MI-07 MI-09 ND-AL PA-06     Permalink

New Senate Polls

State Democrat D % Republican R % I I % Start End Pollster
Arkansas Blanche Lincoln* 34% John Boozman 55%     Oct 15 Oct 19 Mason Dixon
Connecticut Richard Blumenthal 57% Linda McMahon 39%     Oct 19 Oct 20 Suffolk U.
New York Kirsten Gillibrand* 54% Joseph DioGuardi 33%     Oct 19 Oct 19 Rasmussen
Pennsylvania Joe Sestak 46% Pat Toomey 48%     Oct 13 Oct 17 Quinnipiac U.

New House Polls

CD Democrat D % Republican R % I I % Start End Pollster
MA-04 Barney Frank* 49% Sean Bielat 37%     Oct 14 Oct 17 Fleming and Assocs.
MD-01 Frank Kratovil* 42% Andy Harris 53%     Oct 16 Oct 19 Monmouth U.
MI-07 Mark Schauer* 45% Tim Walberg 39%     Oct 16 Oct 17 EPIC MRA
MI-09 Gary Peters* 48% Rocky Raczowski 43%     Oct 16 Oct 17 EPIC MRA
ND-AL Earl Pomeroy* 42% Rick Berg 52%     Oct 18 Oct 19 Rasmussen
PA-06 Manan Trivedi 44% Jim Gerlach* 54%     Oct 18 Oct 20 Monmouth U.

If you like this Website, tell your friends. You can also share by clicking this button  

-- The Votemaster

WWW www.electoral-vote.com

Recent Headlines (clickable)

Oct21 Today's Polls: AK AR CA FL IL KY MD MO NY OH WV + 11 House polls
Oct21 New Icon Available
Oct21 Sestak and Toomey Debate in Pennsylvania
Oct21 Democrats Fighting for Safe Districts
Oct21 Bill Schneider: Obama too Cerebral
Oct21 Republicans Lead in New House Polls
Oct21 Today's Polls: AK AR CA FL IL KY MD MO NY OH WV AZ-05 IL-14 IL-17 MS-01 NH-01 NY-19 NY-24 OR-05 PA-08 PA-10 WI-08
Oct20 Early Voting Starting in 32 States
Oct20 Three Waves in a Row--Maybe Four
Oct20 Palin Supports Raese in Pennsylvania
Oct20 Current State of All States
Oct20 Today's Polls: CA CO FL KY MO NC OR PA WA WI WV MA-10 ME-01 ME-02 NY-19 OR-01 WI-07
Oct19 Control of the Senate May Come Down to Four States
Oct19 Rundown of the Governors' Races
Oct19 Manchin and Raese Debated yesterday
Oct19 For Tea Party Candidates Getting Elected is the Easy Part
Oct19 Today's Polls: CA CT FL MD MO NV NY UT WA AZ-03 ME-01 MO-05 PA-15 VA-05
Oct18 Brief Reminder
Oct18 New Way of Predicting the House Results
Oct18 Many Three-Way Races This Year
Oct18 Taxonomy of Political Debates
Oct18 Today's Polls: HI UT MN-01 NH-01 NH-02 NY-25
Oct17 Republicans Outraise Democrats
Oct17 Dem Hopes in the South Rest on Turnout of Black Voters
Oct17 Foreclosures Becoming a Campaign Issue in Key States
Oct17 Top Republican Candidates Skip Palin Fundraiser
Oct17 Today's Polls: CO OR PA-15
Oct16 IPhone App Icon Now Placed Below the Map
Oct16 Poll Graphs Now Zoomed in on September and October
Oct16 Democrats Trying to Knock off Half a Dozen Republican Representatives
Oct16 DSCC Outraises NRSC in Third Quarter
Oct16 Raese's Wife Won't Vote for Him
Oct16 Today's Polls: CA CT DE NH NY OH UT VT WA WV VT-AL
Oct15 Angle and Reid Fight It Out in Debate
Oct15 Internet Voting Experiment Leads to a Fiasco
Oct15 Many Tea Party Candidates Expected to Win
Oct15 Today's Polls: AK CA CT KS NV PA ME-01 ME-02 PA-07 PA-08 PA-10 PA-11 VA-09 WA-03
Oct14 IPhone App Available for electoral-vote.com
Oct14 Polls That Omit Cell Phones May be Biased
Oct14 All Eyes on Showdown Between O'Donnell and Coons