Obama 297
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Ties 29
Romney 212
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Dem 49
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Ties 3
GOP 48
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  • Strongly Dem (194)
  • Likely Dem (83)
  • Barely Dem (20)
  • Exactly tied (29)
  • Barely GOP (21)
  • Likely GOP (47)
  • Strongly GOP (144)
270 Electoral votes needed to win Map algorithm explained
New polls: FL
Dem pickups: (None)
GOP pickups: IN IA NC
PW logo Extra Bonus Quote of the Day Obama Says No Apology
Bonus Quote of the Day Conservatives Blast Romney on Tax Returns
Sarah Palin Still Waiting for Romney Invite to Tampa Quote of the Day

News from the Votemaster

Republican Governor May or May Not Have Called for Romney to Release Tax Returns

Yesterday Gov. Robert Bentley (R-AL) called on Mitt Romney to release more of his tax returns. This request was widely reported in the media. Today Bentley has denied that he said that. So much of our politics is now like this. Somebody says something that rubs someone else the wrong way (especially if it is true and obvious), then there is pushback and the person who made the statement denies that he made it, despite a bevy of reporters being present when it was made. This practice goes back at least to Richard Nixon when statements previously made were later declared "inoperative." The sad thing here is that the media just accept the denial at face value and never point out that is it untrue.

A Look at How Polling Works

A reporter at the Christian Science Monitor managed to get a behind-the-scenes look at how polling works at Gallup. Her article covers how questions are formulated and ordered, what Gallup thinks of robopolling (not much), how telephone numbers are chosen, and a lot more of the mechanics of polling.

Green Party Nominates Massachusetts Doctor for President

The Green Party has nominated Dr. Jill Stein for President. This is good news for Mitt Romney. He no doubt remembers what happened in Florida in 2000. To jog your memory, here are the certified results.

Candidate Party Votes Pct
George W. Bush Republican 2,912,790 48.847%
Al Gore Democratic 2,912,253 48.838%
Ralph Nader Green 97,488 1.635%
Patrick J. Buchanan Reform 17,484 0.293%
Harry Browne Libertarian 16,415 0.275%
John Hagelin Natural Law/Reform 2,281 0.038%
Howard Phillips Constitution 1,371 0.023%
Other   3,028 0.051%
Total   5,963,110 100.000%

George Bush won the popular vote--and the presidency--by 537 votes--in an election in which the Green Party candidate got 97,488 votes. If Green Party candidate Ralph Nader had not been on the ballot, probably the majority of the Green voters would have held their noses and voted for Al Gore. If even 1% of the Green Party voters had changed their minds at the last minute and voted for Gore, he would have won. Stein is not nearly as well known as Nader, so her vote total is likely to be way under 1%, but in a close election, a candidate getting even 0.1% of the vote could change the outcome of the state and the electoral college. Stein obliquely addressed this issue by saying: "You don't get democracy by silencing the voice of the public interest." Her platform is an emergency program to create 25 million jobs and jump start a green economy to make wars for oil obsolete.

Romney knows who Stein is. In 2002, she ran for governor against him and got 3% of the vote. One can only wonder if Romney will ask some of his wealthy friends to make large donations to her campaign in the hope of siphoning off votes that would otherwise have gone to Obama.

Today's Presidential Polls

State Obama Romney   Start End Pollster
Florida 46% 45%   Jul 09 Jul 11 Mason Dixon

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---The Votemaster

Previous Headlines

Jul14 Romney Again Refuses to Release More Tax Returns
Jul14 Boomlet for Condoleezza Rice as Veep Continues
Jul14 Senators McCain and Kyl Endorse Flake in Arizona Primary
Jul13 Cruz Leading Dewhurst in Texas Republican Primary
Jul13 Romney Calls Obama a Liar
Jul13 Republicans Worry That Romney Is Being Swiftboated
Jul13 A New Gap: Marriage
Jul13 Over 5 Million Felons Are Disenfranchised
Jul12 Flake Having a Tougher than Expected Primary in Arizona
Jul12 Scott Brown Raises $5 million in Second Quarter
Jul12 House Republicans Vote to Repeal Obamacare--Again
Jul12 Voters Would Accept Black, Female, Catholic,or Hispanic President
Jul12 iPhone App Now Available
Jul11 Hovde Narrowly Edges Thompson in Wisconsin Senatorial Primary
Jul11 Missouri Republican Primary Gets Nasty
Jul11 Obama Has More Cash in the Bank than Romney
Jul11 Karl Rove's Groups Expect to Spend $70 Million on Senate Races
Jul11 Florida and Iowa Blocking Former Felons from Voting
Jul10 Polling Drought Continues Unabated
Jul10 Obama Wants to Keep Bush Tax Cuts Only for Incomes below $250,000
Jul10 Romney Raises $106 million in June
Jul10 Ron Paul's Last Hurrah
Jul10 House Ethics Panel Votes to Investigate Shelley Berkley
Jul10 Tension Reported at the Supreme Court
Jul09 Obama Ahead in Swing States
Jul09 Democrats Pound Romney on Tax Returns and Off-Shore Bank Accounts
Jul09 Jobs for Men Do Not Return after a Recession
Jul09 How Wise Are Crowds?
Jul08 Karl Rove's Group Starts $25 Million Ad Campaign Attacking Obama on Economy
Jul08 Romney Considering Both the Rich and the Poor as Veep
Jul08 Congressman Barney Frank Marries His Long-Time Partner
Jul07 Poor Jobs Report Announced
Jul07 Romney Begins Preparing for the Fall Debates
Jul07 Christie Self Eliminates from Consideration as Veep
Jul06 Competitive Senate Primaries Ahead
Jul06 It's All Over but the Shoutin'
Jul06 Who Cares?
Jul05 Scientists Sequence Fetal Genome from Maternal Blood
Jul05 DCCC Has Biggest Small Donor Fundraising Day in History
Jul05 Will the Republicans Be Able to Repeal Obamacare Even If They Win All the Marbles?
Jul04 Happy 236th Birthday America
Jul04 Half the Population Does Not Know Supreme Court Approved the ACA
Jul04 Congressional Mandates Go Back over 200 Years
Jul04 Vacation as Campaigning
Jul03 Roberts Reportedly Changed Sides after Oral Arguments
Jul03 Several States Have Already Rejected the Medicaid Expansion in the ACA
Jul03 Romney Says the ACA Penalty is not a Tax
Jul02 Which Party Is Best at Managing the Economy?
Jul02 Does a President's Religion Matter?
Jul02 Bain Ads Apparently Working