Obama 289
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Ties 6
Romney 243
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Dem 50
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Ties 2
GOP 48
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  • Strongly Dem (210)
  • Likely Dem (34)
  • Barely Dem (45)
  • Exactly tied (6)
  • Barely GOP (62)
  • Likely GOP (51)
  • Strongly GOP (130)
270 Electoral votes needed to win Map algorithm explained
New polls: CA MA
Dem pickups: MO
GOP pickups: FL IN NC OH
PW logo McCotter Ends Write-In Campaign Jobs Report Could Reshape Campaign
Warren Just Behind Brown in Massachusetts Trump Claims Credit for Romney's Rise in Polls
Mubarak Sentenced to Life in Prison Rielle Hunter Wrote a Tell-All Book

News from the Votemaster

Dismal Jobs Report for May

The economy added just 69,000 jobs in May, worse than expected. Mitt Romney jumped on this and said Obama can't manage the economy. When times are bad, people blame the President. When times are good, Presidents try to take credit for it. In most cases, the President really has little power to affect things. A month ago, Romney was blaming Obama for gas prices of almost $4/gallon. Now that gas prices have dropped sharply to an average of $3.62, he never mentions the subject any more. Here is a chart of gas prices for the past 3 months from gasbuddy.com.

Gas prices

The reality is that no President can micromanage gas prices, jobs, or any other aspect of the economy. Market forces determine these things. But that doesn't stop politicians from assigning blame and taking credit for things they can't control. Roosters probably tell their friends that only through their heroic efforts did the sun rise that day.

That said, it doesn't mean the President has no effect on the economy. He does, but only in a very indirect way. When Obama pushed for the $830 billion stimulus bill in 2009, most economists said it was much too small to get the economy moving again. Nevertheless, Obama did not push for a bigger injection because he was afraid the Republicans would call it a trillion-dollar boondoggle. Listening to his political advisors instead of his economists may prove to be his undoing in November.

The amount of damage the jobs report has done to Obama is hard to say. Temporarily, a fair amount, but the September report is far more important since by then people will have long forgotten the May report. For what it is worth, here is the Intrade price chart for Obama to win the general election. He lost about 3 points as a result of the jobs report, but is still slightly favored.

Intrade chart

The stock market didn't take the news well either. The Dow was off 274 points or 2.2%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down by 2.5% and 2.8%, respectively. All in all, a bad day for the economy and thus a bad day for Obama and a good day for Romney.

Tipping-Point Table Revisited

There is apparently some confusion about the new tipping-point table reachable by clicking on "Current score by state" link in the menu. A number of people expected the sum of Obama's EVs and Romney's EVs on each line to be 538. That's actually not the case. Look at today's table. Suppose, for simplicity, Obama were to win only the states where his lead is now 20% or more, D.C. through and including Illinois. The fifth column shows he would get 72 electoral votes in that case. Reading from the bottom, Romney would then win all the states from Oklahoma through and including California (not not Illinois), giving him 466 electoral votes--the score in the highest row he won, namely California. Adding 72 and 466 we do get 538. In fact, if you take Obama's score in any row and add to it Romney's score in the row below it, you do get 538. To add up the Obama and Romney scores in the same row counts that state for both of them. Hope this is clear now.

Presidential Polls

State Obama Romney   Start End Pollster
California 48% 32%   May 21 May 29 Field Poll
Massachusetts 46% 34%   May 25 May 31 U. of New Hampshire
Massachusetts 59% 34%   May 20 May 22 Suffolk U.

Today's Senate Polls

State Democrat D % Republican R % I I % Start End Pollster
Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren 37% Scott Brown 39%     May 25 May 31 U. of New Hampshire

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---The Votemaster

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Jun01 Ideas for Other Pages Are Welcome
Jun01 Presidential Polls
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May31 McConnell Lists Top Senate Races
May31 Globalization and Politics
May31 Cell-Phone-Only Voters are Very Different
May31 Clear Your Cache!
May31 Correction on Natural-Born Citizens
May31 Presidential Polls
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May30 Romney's the One
May30 Runoff Required in Texas Senatorial Primary
May30 Today's Polls
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May23 Romney Wins Kentucky and Arkansas Primaries
May23 Obama Also Has Trouble Unifying His Party
May23 Opposition to Same-Sex Marriage Collapses
May23 Thanks to All the Beta Testers
May22 Arkansas and Kentucky Hold Primaries Today
May22 Obama and Cory Booker Continue to Squabble
May22 Hawaii Pushing Back on the Arizona Secretary of State's Request for Obama's Birth Certificate
May22 A Few Good Testers Needed for the New Website
May16 Fischer Upsets Bruning in Nebraska Senatorial Primary
May16 Romney, now unopposed, Wins Oregon and Nebraska Primaries
May16 Pollsters See Response Rates Tumble
May16 Redesign of this Site Progressing
May15 Ron Paul Suspends His Campaign
May15 Primaries Today in Nebraska and Oregon
May15 Obama Starts Getting Nasty
May10 Obama Supports Same-Sex Marriage
May09 Redesign of This Site to be Launched Soon
May09 Tea Party Candidate Crushes Lugar in Indiana Senate Primary
May09 Barrett Wins Democratic Gubernatorial Primary for Wisconsin Recall Election
May09 North Carolina Voters Ban Same-Sex Marriages Again
May09 Romney Wins in Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia
May08 Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia Vote Today
May08 Key Senate Primary Today in Indiana
May08 North Carolina Votes on Gay Marriage and Civil Unions Today
May08 Obama's Reelection Campaign Begins with 5 million ad buy in Swing States
May03 Gingrich Quits--Really
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Apr28 Sarah Palin Endorses Richard Mourdock for Senate in Indiana
Apr25 Romney Sweeps all Five Northeast Primaries
Apr25 Tom Smith Wins Pennsylvania GOP Senatorial Primary
Apr25 Critz Defeats Altmire in Pennsylvania Democratic House Primary
Apr25 Romney Sweeps all Five Northeast Primaries