Mar. 11 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Obama ?   Republican ?  
Senate Dem ?   GOP ?  

Senate map and races
Downloadable polling data
Previous report
Next report

strong Dem Strong Dem (253)
weak Dem Weak Dem (32)
barely Dem Barely Dem (73)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (13)
weak GOP Weak GOP (42)
strong GOP Strong GOP (125)
270 Electoral votes needed to win
Map algorithm explained
Senate polls today: (None) iPhone RSS
Dem pickups: (None) GOP pickups: (None) PDA

News from the Votemaster

Santorum Wins Kansas Caucus     Permalink

As expected, Rick Santorum won a landslide victory in the Kansas caucuses yesterday with 51% to Mitt Romney's 21%. Newt Gingrich was third with 14% and Ron Paul was last with 12%. Finishing behind Romney and Gingrich has to be slightly embarrassing to Paul since neither Romney nor Gingrich even contested the state. In his march to victory in Kansas, Santorum won 104 of the state's 105 counties, giving him 33 delegates to Romney's 7.

But it wasn't all bad news for Romney. In Wyoming, he racked up 13 delegates, Santorum got 7, Paul got 4, and Gingrich got 1. Wyoming held a straw poll a week ago, but no actual delegates were selected then.

Romney also had a good day in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, sweeping up all the 18 delegates from both Guam and the Northern Marianas, which both political parties treat like states, although neither one is advocating statehood for them. Finally, Romney also did well in the U.S. Virgin Islands, getting 7 delegates there to Ron Paul's single delegate.

Trying to figure out the total number of delegates each candidate has is well, trying. In most caucus states, there are two elections. First, there is a straw poll on which candidate the caucus goers favored. That vote is basically irelevant. Then a later vote chooses the actual human beings who go to the county caucuses a few weeks later. Generally, these delegates are free to vote for anyone they want to, so it is hard to count them as belonging to one camp or another. In addition, the 168 members of the Republican National Committee (three from each state and territory) are all voting delegates to the national convention and not bound to any candidates. According to the RNC Romney has 339 delegates so far, "unbound" has 258, Gingrich has 107, Santorum has 96, and Paul has 22. However, CNN's count attempts to allocate the unbound delegates and puts Romney at 458, Santorum at 203, Gingrich at 118, and Paul at 66. Winning the nomination requires 1144 delegates.

Further complicating the math is that both Florida and Arizona awarded all their delegates to the winner of the statewide primary, Romney in both cases. This allocation is a clear violation of the RNC rules and in the event that Romney comes into the convention with just over 1144 delegates, Florida and Arizona will surely be challenged, leading to a messy credentials fight. However, most observers expect him to have well over 1144 delegates, thus avoiding a battle at the convention.

On Tuesday, Alabama, Mississippi, and Hawaii vote. All eyes will be on the two deep South states to see if Romney can finally break through with conservatives. If he can, it will be hard to see anyone denying him the nomination. If he loses both of them, however, the March march is going to become an April march.

If you like this Website, tell your friends. You can also share by clicking this button  

-- The Votemaster

Previous headlines

Mar10 Santorum Favorite to Win Kansas Caucus Today
Mar10 Angus King Endorses Obama
Mar07 Romney wins Ohio and five other states, Santorum wins three states
Mar06 Today is Super Tuesday
Mar06 Independent Throws Maine Senate Race into Turmoil
Mar04 Romney Wins Washington, Paul Second (Maybe)
Mar03 Washington State Holds Caucuses Today
Mar03 Maine Senate Field Taking Shape
Feb29 Romney Barely Wins Michigan
Feb29 Olympia Snow Announces Her Retirement
Feb28 Michigan Too Close to Call
Feb28 Kerrey May Run for the Senate in Nebraska
Feb23 Romney Attacks, Santorum Defends, Nothing Much Changes
Feb23 Of Vaginas and Veeps
Feb21 Too Late for a White Knight
Feb21 Another Republican Debate Tomorrow
Feb17 Santorum Leading Romney in Michigan
Feb12 Romney Wins the CPAC Straw Poll
Feb12 Romney Edges Out Paul by 194 Votes in Maine
Feb12 Santorum Leading in Michigan and Nationwide
Feb08 Santorum Wins Big in Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado
Feb05 Romney Wins Nevada Caucuses
Feb05 Republican Primary and Caucus Schedule
Feb04 Romney Expected to Win Big at Nevada Caucuses Today
Feb04 Economy is Improving
Feb01 Romney Wins Decisively in Florida
Jan31 Romney Set to Win Big in Florida
Jan31 Santorum Faces Easy Choice Tomorrow
Jan31 Prediction: Florida Will Win Today
Jan27 Romney Takes Off the Gloves in Final Florida Debate
Jan27 Romney Failed to List Foreign Investments on Legal Form
Jan25 Obama Lays Groundwork for a Populist Campaign in State-of-the-Union Speech
Jan24 Romney Releases 2010 Tax Return
Jan24 Role Reversal in the Debate: Romney Attacks, Gingrich Plays Defense
Jan24 Fred Thompson Endorses Newt Gingrich
Jan22 Gingrich Crushes Romney in South Carolina
Jan20 Perry Drops Out and Endorses Gingrich
Jan20 Gingrich Surging in South Carolina
Jan20 Gingrich's Second Wife Attacks Him
Jan20 Romney Loses His Win in Iowa