Obama 332
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Romney 206
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Dem 55
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GOP 45
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  • Strongly Dem (184)
  • Likely Dem (69)
  • Barely Dem (50)
  • Exactly tied (0)
  • Barely GOP (15)
  • Likely GOP (16)
  • Strongly GOP (175)
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News from the Votemaster

Heidi Heitkamp Wins North Dakota Senate Seat

Republican Rick Berg has conceded defeat in a very close Senate race for an open seat in North Dakota. Former state Attorney General, Heidi Heitkamp, will replace the retiring Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND) in a surprising victory for a Democrat in a deep red state. Heitkamp ran a top-notch retail campaign and in such a small state, probably talked to nearly every voter personally. She rarely talked about national issues, preferring to explain how she could bring home more bacon than Berg. North Dakotans bought it. She is the first female senator from North Dakota. Her win brings the number of women in the Senate to 20, an all-time high. Here is the list of women in the new Senate.

State Name Party Winner
California Dianne Feinstein Dem Obama
California Barbara Boxer Dem Obama
Hawaii Maizie Hirono Dem Obama
Louisiana Mary Landrieu Dem Romney
Maryland Barbara Mikulski Dem Obama
Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren Dem Obama
Michigan Debbie Stabenow Dem Obama
Minnesota Amy Klobuchar Dem Obama
Missouri Claire McCaskill Dem Romney
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen Dem Obama
New York Kirsten Gillibrand Dem Obama
North Carolina Kay Hagan Dem Romney
North Dakota Heidi Heitkamp Dem Romney
Washington Patty Murray Dem Obama
Washington Maria Cantwell Dem Obama
Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin Dem Obama
State Name Party Winner
Alaska Lisa Murkowski GOP Romney
Maine Susan Collins GOP Obama
Nebraska Deb Fischer GOP Romney
New Hampshire Kelly Ayotte GOP Obama

If we break this down by the senator's party and who won the senator's state, we have 12 Democratic senators from states Obama won, four Democratic senators from states Romney won, two Republican senators from states Romney won, and two Republican senators from states Obama won. Senators from parties that lost their states are clearly vulnerable in the next election. These are Mary Landrieu, Claire McCaskill, Kay Hagan, Heidi Heitkamp, Susan Collins, and Kelly Ayotte. They also have to be careful about voting in the Senate, because any votes they make according to their party's wishes can be used against them in the next campaign.

Florida Hasn't Been Called Yet

President Obama won the in-person votes in Florida by 47,000, 49.86% to 49.29%, but the number of absentee and provisional ballots exceeds that total, so they must all be counted. That process is going on now. Fortunately, the election results don't hinge on it. Can you imagine another national election where the results depended on a disputed hand count of ballots in Florida? Nevertheless, state officials are striving for a quick and accurate final tally. Many of the absentee ballots are from populous counties that went big for Obama on Tuesday: Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Hillsborough, and Pinellas. Four small, but Republican-oriented counties, Duval, Escambia, Okaloosa, and Putnam also have absentee ballots that have not yet been counted.

Richard Nixon's Southern Strategy Has Hit a Demographic Wall

When Lyndon Johnson signed the 1964 Civil Rights Act, he said that he understood he was turning the South over the Republicans for a generation, but it was the right thing to do, so he signed the Act. Actually, Johnson underestimated the effect. Two generations later, the South, which had been a Democratic bastion for 100 years, is still solidly Republican. But Nixon's fundamental strategy of appealing to racist white men is being undone by demographics. White voters comprised 72% of the electorate this year, down from 74% in 2008 and 77% in 2004. It is expected to be around 70% in 2016 and below that in 2020. About 89% of Mitt Romney's votes came from white voters, but as whites shrink as a percentage of the electorate, Nixon's strategy of making coded appeals to racism is becoming a major problem. Witness the enormous discussion about Obama's birth place. It is just coded racism. John McCain was not born in the United States. He freely admits that. He is a Zonian. But Democrats never made a big deal about it or alleged he was ineligible to be President even though the Constitution is vague about what consitutes a "natural-born" citizen.

Case in point: Prince William County in Virginia. It used to be rural countryside where Republican politicians went to reap white votes. No more. It is now the first majority-minority county in Virginia and the seventh richest county in the country. Democrats now flock here to seek votes. Similar changes have taken place in Colorado and other states. The Republicans are gradually seeing that they must do something about their demographic problem, but change is complicated by the rise of the tea party, whose motto seems to be "just say no." It is hard to change when a large piece of your party is very resistant to accepting the new reality in many ways.

The Democrats are keenly aware of the changes the nation is experiencing. For the first time in history, white men will form a minority of the House Democratic caucus. The women and minorities in the caucus will not let the party leaders forget this, not that it was likely with the President being (half) black, the House minority leader being a woman, and the official head of the Democratic Party, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, also being a woman. Of the four top positions, only Senate majority leader, Harry Reid, is a white man. In contrast, the Republican nominee for President and the top three Republican officials, Reince Priebus, Mitch McConell, and John Boehner, are all older white men.

Liberals Did Well on Tuesday

Although Republicans like to say the United States is center-right country, liberals did quite well in this year's election. Among other things:

  • The new Democratic Senate caucus will be more liberal than the current one
  • Same-sex marriage was approved in three states and an attempt to ban it was defeated in one
  • Tea party superstars Allen West and Joe Walsh were beaten in House races
  • An openly lesbian woman, Tammy Baldwin, was elected to the Senate
  • A rising tea party star, Mia Love, was defeated in a House race
  • Billionaires spent close to a billion dollars and got nothing to show for it
  • The use of marijuana for recreational use was approved in Colorado and Washington
  • The much-maligned 18-29 year-olds showed up in great numbers and 60% voted Democratic

The first point may need a bit of explanation. Here is a list of new Democratic senators who are more liberal than their predecessors.

State New senator Old senator
Connecticut Chris Murphy (D) Joe Lieberman (I)
Indiana Joe Donnelly (D) Richard Lugar (R)
Maine Angus King (I) Olympia Snowe (R)
Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren (D) Scott Brown (R)
Virginia Tim Kaine (D) Jim Webb (D)
Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin (D) Herb Kohl (D)

The only new Republican who is more conservative than his predecessor is senator-elect Ted Cruz of Texas. Although his predecessor, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, had a moderate demeanor, in practice, she rarely crossed her party.

Puerto Rico Wants to Be a State

Puerto Ricans are U.S. citizens although the ones living in Puerto Rico cannot vote in U.S. elections. Puerto Ricans who are permanent residents of one of the 50 states of D.C. can simply register to vote there. If Obama wins Florida, a good part of his victory will be due to Puerto Ricans living in the central part of the state.

Puerto Rico is a self-governing commonwealth that also had elections Tuesday. A new governor was elected, for example. Of more interest to U.S. residents, however, were two ballot initiatives. The first one asked if residents wanted to change their current status as a commonwealth. The second asked if they were to change it, should Puerto Rico become an independent country or a state of the United States. The winning propositions were (1) yes, it's time for a new arrangement and (2) Puerto Ricans would like to have the island become a state, like Hawaii.

Since Puerto Ricans are generally Democrats, becoming a new state would mean two new Democratic senators. If D.C. were to become a state, that would mean four new Democratic senators. It should not be hard to guess how a bill in Congress to grant either of them statehood would play out. But if Harry Reid were to bring the matter up and Republicans were to filibuster it, the Republicans would become even less popular with Latinos than they already are.

Senate Races in 2012 Will Affect 2014

The unexpected Democratic gains in the Senate have implications for 2014. At the start of this year, just about all observers assumed the Democrats would either lose their majority this year, or would reduce it so much that they would lose it in 2014. After all they had 23 seats up for grabs this year and the Republicans had only 10 as a result of the Democratic wave of 2008. In 2014, the Democrats will have 20 seats up for reelection to the Republicans' 13. While not quite as bad, in some ways it is worse since at least four of the seats are vulnerable because they are in red states. Other factors play a role, of course, including seniority and raw power. Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) is in much more danger than Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) because Baucus is chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, which writes the nation's tax laws. It is an immensely powerful position and campaign donors act accordingly.

None of the Republicans' seats are vulnerable, unless one of the senators loses a primary to a tea party candidate. It is not standard practice for the DNC to provide financial aid to tea party candidates in primaries, but given recent history, anyone proposing the idea to DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz might get a serious hearing. Here is the list of Senate seats up in 2014.

State Incumbent Party Danger
Alaska Mark Begich Dem High
Arkansas Mark Pryor Dem Medium
Colorado Mark Udall Dem Low
Delaware Chris Coons Dem Low
Illinois Richard Durbin Dem Low
Iowa Tom Harkin Dem Low
Louisiana Mary Landrieu Dem High
Massachusetts John Kerry Dem Low
Michigan Carl Levin Dem Low
Minnesota Al Franken Dem Low
Montana Max Baucus Dem Medium
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen Dem Medium
New Jersey Frank Lautenberg Dem Might retire
New Mexico Tom Udall Dem Low
North Carolina Kay Hagan Dem High
Oregon Jeff Merkley Dem Low
Rhode Island Jack Reed Dem Low
South Dakota Tim Johnson Dem High
Virginia Mark Warner Dem Medium
West Virginia Jay Rockefeller Dem Low
State Incumbent Party Danger
Alabama Jeff Sessions GOP Low
Georgia Saxby Chambliss GOP Low
Idaho Jim Risch GOP Low
Kansas Pat Roberts GOP Low
Kentucky Mitch McConnell GOP Low
Maine Susan Collins GOP Medium
Mississippi Thad Cochran GOP Low
Nebraska Mike Johanns GOP Low
Oklahoma Jim Inhofe GOP Low
South Carolina Lindsey Graham GOP Low
Tennessee Lamar Alexander GOP Low
Texas John Cornyn GOP Low
Wyoming Mike Enzi GOP Low

Now that Heidi Heitkamp has won the last undecided Senate race, the Democrats will have 55 seats in the Senate, assuming Maine senator Angus King caucuses with them as expected. Simple arithmetic shows that the Democrats can afford to lose four seats in 2014 and still hang onto their majority. In fact, they could lose five seats and still have a working majority since the President of the Senate will still be Joe Biden until Jan. 20, 2017.

Unless the tea party manages to install a candidate who can't win in one of the races, the only realistic hope the Democrats have of winning a Republican seat is Susan Collins' seat. She is personally popular and in contrast to the retiring Olympia Snowe, who is one of the wealthiest members of Congress, definitely middle class and very folksy. But Maine is a blue state and the Democrats have two House members who are well known, Chellie Pingree and Mike Michaud, who could run against here. Pingree might have the advantage because Democratic women who like the idea of having a female senator, could switch allegiance easily. Pingree was going to run for the seat Angus King just won until DSCC chairwoman Patty Murray pleaded with her not to, to avoid splitting the vote with King. Murray owes her one now. Pingree wouldn't run attack ads against Collins, since she is so popular, but could effectively run against Mitch McConnell with the slogan: "We can't let them take over the Senate."

The five-seat majority gives majority leader Harry Reid some flexibility. Republicans are likely to try to force votes just for the purpose of making Democrats get on record supporting things unpopular in red states. With votes to spare, Reid could allow up to five vulnerable Democrats vote against the party line, thus sparing them attack ads in 2 years.

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---The Votemaster
Nov07 Election Results
Nov07 Takeaways
Nov07 Whither the Republican Party?
Nov07 The Blame Game Starts Today
Nov07 How Did We Do?
Nov07 About Last Night
Nov06 Live Blogging of the Election Tonight
Nov06 Here Are the Final National Polls
Nov06 The Race to 270
Nov06 Democrats Poised to Hold the Senate
Nov06 Legal Challenges Are Ongoing
Nov06 Poll Closing Times
Nov06 How the Right Will Rationalize a Romney Loss
Nov06 How the Left Will Rationalize an Obama Loss
Nov06 Why Did Obama Actually Win
Nov06 Why Did Romney Actually Win
Nov06 Could There Be Faithless Electors?
Nov06 Women Could Clean Up in New Hampshire
Nov06 Marriage Equality on the Ballot in Four States
Nov05 Please Take This Short Poll
Nov05 Obama Continues to Surge in the National Polls
Nov05 Dutch Newspaper Reports Romney Avoided $100 Million in Taxes
Nov05 Analysis of Key Races in All 50 States
Nov05 Florida Election in the Courts Already
Nov05 Voting Equipment Still Not Verifiable
Nov05 Could Unreadable Signatures Be the Hanging Chads of 2012?
Nov05 Positive Campaign Ads Have Essentially Vanished
Nov05 Russia Lambasts the U.S. for Undemocratic Elections
Nov05 Neither Presidential Candidate Seems to Have Senatorial Coattails
Nov05 New Jersey to Allow Ballots to be Sent in By Email
Nov04 Obama Appears to Have Momentum
Nov04 Thanks to the Supreme Court, Early Voting Is Still Taking Place in Ohio
Nov04 Will the Aftermath of the Storm Affect the Election?
Nov04 Obama's Gamble on Demographics
Nov04 Maybe Pot Smokers Will Determine the Next President
Nov04 What Do People Want from the Next President?
Nov04 Conservatives Are Seeing the Beginning of the End for Romney
Nov04 Close Elections Are Nothing New
Nov03 Employment Up But Unemployment Also Up
Nov03 Ethnic Mix of the Electorate May Determine the Winner
Nov03 Early Results from Ohio on Election Day May Be Misleading
Nov03 Republicans Are Praying for Rain on Election Day
Nov03 Outside Groups Spent Half a Billion Dollars in October
Nov03 Probe into Voter Registration Fraud in Virginia Widens
Nov03 Betting Site Has Romney as the Favorite--in 2016
Nov03 Are Pollsters Asking the Wrong Question?
Nov02 Both Candidates Back on the Campaign Trail
Nov02 October Unemployment Numbers Will Be Out at 8:30 A.M. EDT Today
Nov02 Forget the Middle Class, It's Elite vs. Elite
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