• Strongly Dem (44)
  • Likely Dem (1)
  • Barely Dem (2)
  • Exactly tied (1)
  • Barely GOP (4)
  • Likely GOP (3)
  • Strongly GOP (45)
  • No Senate race
Map algorithm and special elections
An Orman (I) lead in Kansas is a "tie"
New polls: CO GA IA KS ME NC NH NJ
Dem pickups : (None)

News from the Votemaster

Election Day Is Finally Here

The day some people were looking forward to and others were dreading is finally here. Most poll aggregators, including us, think the odds favor the Republicans to take over the Senate, but its not a done deal quite yet. In addition to the Senate races, there are 36 gubernatorial races, many of them hotly contested, 435 House races, and a plethora of contests for state legislatures and local offices.

Poll closing times vary from 6 P.M. EST to 1 A.M. EST. Daily Kos has a great map showing the closing times around the country and what to watch for at each hour. The trouble is for all the exciting races, nothing will be known for hours and in some cases for days until all the absentee ballots and provisional ballots have been counted. Here is a brief rundown of some key races.

6:00 P.M. EST
  • Kentucky. Mitch McConnell R) vs. Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) is the big one here
7:00 P.M. EST
  • Florida. The big one here is the gubernatorial slugfest of Gov. Rick Scott (R) vs. Charlie Crist (D)
  • Georgia. Two races: Nathan Deal (R) vs. Jason Carter (D) for governor and David Perdue (R) vs. Michelle Nunn (D) for senator
  • New Hampshire. Shaheen will probably beat Brown, but it could be close
  • Virginia. If Ed Gillespie even comes close to Mark Warner, Democrats will be slaughtered nationwide
7:30 P.M. EST
  • North Carolina. If Sen. Kay Hagan (D) loses, it's curtains for the Democrats
8:00 P.M. EST
  • Connecticut. Unpopular Gov. Dan Malloy (D) is in a rematch with Tom Foley (R). It's a tossup
  • Illinois. Unpopular Gov. Pat Quinn (D) is in a competitive race with a mini-Mitt, Bruce Rauner (R)
  • Kansas. Both the Republican governor and senator could lose, but they are not bellwethers as both are unpopular
  • Maine. The three-way gubernatorial race could result in Gov. Paul LePage (R) being reelected with under 50%
  • Michigan. Most likely Gov. Rick Snyder (R) will be reelected, but an upset by Mark Schauer (D) is possible
  • Pennsylvania. Gov. Tom Corbett (R) will probably be crushed. If not, the Democrats will be crying all night
8:30 P.M. EST
  • Arkansas. A victory by Sen. Mark Pryor (D) would be a huge morale booster for the Democrats, but it is unlikely
9:00 P.M. EST
  • Colorado. Unless Sen. Mark Udall (D) wins, the Democrats can forget holding the Senate
  • Louisiana. Watch the margin between Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) and Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) for a hint about the runoff
  • Wisconsin. If Gov. Scott Walker (R) goes down, the Republicans will have lost one of their best 2016 prospects
10:00 P.M. EST
  • Iowa. The big prize here is the Senate seat. This is a must-win contest for the Democrats
11:00 P.M. EST
  • Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, and Hawaii close then, but there are no nationally significant races here
1:00 A.M. EST
  • The Alaska Senate race is crucial for the Democrats, but the results may not be in for weeks

December 2 is the date for the expected gubernatorial runoff in Georgia with Jason Carter (D) vs. Nathan Deal (R).

December 6 is the date for the expected Louisiana runoff between Mary Landrieu (D) and Bill Cassidy (R).

January 6 is the date for the expected Georgia senatorial runoff between Michelle Nunn (D) and David Perdue (R).

Republicans Likely to Win Senate

The map shows our final predictions. It is more likely than not that the Republicans will win the Senate, probably with around 52 seats. If independent Greg Orman wins and caucuses with the Republicans, they will have 53 seats. Still, elections always have surprises.

Today's Senate Polls

State Democrat D % Republican R % I I % Start End Pollster
Colorado Mark Udall* 43% Cory Gardner 45%     Oct 28 Nov 02 Quinnipiac U.
Georgia Michelle Nunn 44% David Perdue 47%     Oct 30 Nov 02 SurveyUSA
Georgia Michelle Nunn 45% David Perdue 46%     Nov 01 Nov 03 PPP
Georgia Michelle Nunn 45% David Perdue 48%     Oct 30 Nov 02 Insider Advantage
Georgia Michelle Nunn 46% David Perdue 46%     Oct 30 Oct 31 PPP
Georgia Michelle Nunn 46% David Perdue 50%     Nov 02 Nov 02 Landmark Comm.
Iowa Bruce Braley 45% Joni Ernst 48%     Nov 01 Nov 03 PPP
Iowa Bruce Braley 47% Joni Ernst 47%     Oct 28 Nov 02 Quinnipiac U.
Iowa Bruce Braley 47% Joni Ernst 48%     Oct 30 Oct 31 PPP
Kansas     Pat Roberts* 46% Greg Orman 47% Nov 01 Nov 03 PPP
Kansas     Pat Roberts* 47% Greg Orman 46% Oct 30 Oct 31 PPP
Maine Shenna Bellows 37% Susan Collins* 57%     Oct 31 Nov 02 Maine Res. Ctr.
North Carolina Kay Hagan* 46% Thom Tillis 44% Sean Haugh (L) 5% Nov 01 Nov 03 PPP
North Carolina Kay Hagan* 46% Thom Tillis 45% Sean Haugh (L) 4% Oct 30 Oct 31 PPP
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen* 49% Scott Brown 47%     Oct 30 Oct 31 PPP
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen* 50% Scott Brown 48%     Nov 01 Nov 03 PPP
New Jersey Cory Booker* 54% Jeff Bell 40%     Oct 30 Nov 02 Monmouth U.

* Denotes incumbent

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---The Votemaster
Nov03 Both Parties See Campaign Looking Favorable for the Republicans
Nov03 Republicans Are Bragging about Their Chances
Nov03 Early Ballots in Colorado Now Favor Democrats, But Possibly Too Little Too Late
Nov03 Nate Silver Gives Republicans a 73 Percent Chance of Capturing the Senate
Nov03 Most Voters Will Use Paper Ballots Tomorrow
Nov03 Romney Says He is Not Running in 2016
Nov03 Cruz Wants to Make the Senate Like the House
Nov02 Many Undecided Voters May Not Vote
Nov02 Good Weather Equals Bad News for Republicans
Nov02 McConnell Campaign Sends Election Violation Notice Mailer to Voters
Nov02 Reid Says Control of the Senate Depends on Iowa
Nov02 No Matter the Outcome, Neither Party Will Have a Mandate
Nov02 Conservatives Freaking Out at a Possible Bush Run in 2016
Nov01 GOP Takeover of the Senate May Be Short Lived
Nov01 The Trend is Towards Single-Party Control of the States
Nov01 Fighting for the Last 1000 Votes in Alaska
Nov01 Landrieu Tells the Truth and Gets Attacked for It
Nov01 Iowa Could Be the Key to Control of the Senate
Nov01 In 2016, the Focus Will Be Blue-state Republicans
Nov01 Biased News Coverage Flourishes as Election Day Approaches
Oct31 Larry Sabato Calls Senate for Republican
Oct31 Democrats Playing the Race Card in the South
Oct31 Legal Battles in Georgia Very Likely
Oct31 Republican Governors Association Donors Get Special Access
Oct30 New Senate Could Have As Many as 27 Women
Oct30 Colorado Senate Race Is All about Birth Control
Oct30 Are There Really Many Moderate Voters?
Oct30 Sometimes Sure-Thing Candidates Fizzle Out
Oct30 Republicans Poised to Make Gains in State Legislatures
Oct30 Obama Hides, Hillary Soars
Oct29 Georgia Judge Rules against Registering Voters
Oct29 Five States That Might Hold Surprises
Oct29 Republicans Close Polling Place To Suppress Student Vote
Oct29 McConnell May Get His Wish--and Regret It
Oct29 Obama Made a Rare Campaign Appearance for Mary Burke
Oct29 Dance for DCCC Chair is in Full Swing
Oct28 Do You Need an ID to Vote?
Oct28 What Name Should a Married Female Candidate Use?
Oct28 Everybody Wants To Be DSCC Chairman in 2016
Oct28 Cheapskate Senators Could Be Hurting the Republicans
Oct28 If Pat Roberts Loses, It is His Own Fault
Oct28 Begich and Murkowski in Fight over Photo
Oct28 Larry Flynt Spices Up the Kentucky Senate Race
Oct27 Voters Expect Republicans to Win the Senate
Oct27 People Really Dislike Congress
Oct27 Kentucky Newspapers Endorse Alison Lundergan Grimes
Oct27 Unusually Many Senate Races Are Up for Grabs
Oct27 Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee Are on a Collision Course
Oct27 Jeb Bush More Than Likely to Run According to His Son
Oct27 Tech Companies Learning about Politics the Hard Way