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Political Wire logo Texas May ‘Resurrect’ Case Requiring Education for All
Samuel Alito Cancels Public Appearance
Madison Cawthorn Responds to ‘Sex Tape’
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Republicans Could Rue Ending Abortion Rights

TODAY'S HEADLINES (click to jump there; use your browser's "Back" button to return here)
      •  Ohio Heads to the Polls...
      •  ...Indiana and Michigan, Too
      •  The Next Day: 10 News Stories about the Sinking of Roe
      •  The Next Day: What The Commentariat Is Saying about the Sinking of Roe
      •  New York Has a New Lieutenant Governor

Ohio Heads to the Polls...

The good people of Ohio helped launch the meaty part of primary season on Tuesday. Here are the notable results out of the Buckeye State:

  • Senate: This is the one everyone was watching, particularly the Republican side of the contest, which has been brutal and which saw Donald Trump wade in with a full-throated endorsement of John D. Varnsen. Wait, maybe it was Josh Vandelay? J.P. Mandelbaum? That's gotta be it. Mandelbaum, Mandelbaum, Mandelbaum!

    Ok, it was actually J.D. Vance. And, seemingly buoyed by Trump's support (even if Trump couldn't quite remember his name), Vance trounced his competition, taking 32.2% of the vote to 23.9% for second-place finisher and rival Josh Mandel. No poll had it that lopsided, so it's hard to know exactly how much of that came from having the former president's blessing. Certainly, Trump is going to spend much of the next week crowing, and much of the media is already running with the story that he is indeed a kingmaker. Let's tap the brakes on that a bit, however, and see what happens in the other primaries this month. The Trump candidate in the Georgia governor's race, namely David Perdue (R) is now down close to 40 points, so he's clearly going to get trounced. Results in the Pennsylvania and Alabama U.S. Senate races, however, may be illuminating. Those elections will be on May 17 and 24, respectively.

    On the Democratic side, Rep. Tim Ryan easily claimed the Party's nomination with 69.7% of the vote. He used his victory speech to start tacking to the middle, and to talk about how he wants to be a senator for all Ohioans. He is lucky in that Vance is probably the most beatable of the Republicans who were running, inasmuch as he's transparently phony and some of the Trumpers just don't trust him. The first wildcard in the race is abortion. Get used to reading that, because we'll probably end up writing that sentence 200 times in the next 6 months. Ohio generally tends to pass pretty right-wing legislation, and if the legislature decides to outlaw abortion as soon as they are able to do so, that would certainly affect the race. The second wildcard in the race is the 23.3% of Republican primary voters who cast their ballots for third-place finisher Matt Dolan, who ran an explicitly anti-Trump campaign. Will those voters hold their noses and vote for a Trumpy Republican? Or will they hold their noses and vote for a centrist Democrat? Or will they just stay home on Election Day?

  • Governor: Gov. Mike DeWine easily won the right to stand for reelection, taking 48.1% of the vote as compared to 28.0% for former representative Jim Renacci, the second-place finisher. The Democratic candidate will be Mayor Nan Whaley of Dayton. Whaley is the first woman nominated for governor of Ohio by either major party, and she says that nominating someone who is not a boring white guy will allow her to overcome the Democrats' lack of success when it comes to this particular office (there has only been one Democratic governor of Ohio, namely Ted Strickland, since 1991). DeWine is an overwhelming favorite as a popular incumbent in a state that's become quite red, but Republican man vs. Democratic woman is the kind of race that the Supreme Court's abortion decision could put in play. Don't bet on it, but don't rule it out, either.

  • House: The House race that was of most interest was the Democratic primary in OH-11, which featured a rematch of the more centrist Rep. Shontel Brown and progressive challenger Nina Turner. For the second time in a row, Brown crushed Turner; this time it was 66.3% to 33.7%.

    There's also OH-07, which has been the site of something of a soap opera. The R+18 district is currently represented by Anthony Gonzalez (R), but he voted to impeach Donald Trump, which left him high and dry and caused him to announce his retirement. Rep. Bob Gibbs (R) jumped in, but then jumped out. That cleared the field for Max Miller, who served in the Trump White House and had Trump's backing. Miller was reportedly guilty of domestic violence against his ex-girlfriend Stephanie Grisham, also of the Trump White House. However, Republican voters either didn't believe the claims or didn't care because they gave Miller 71.8% of their votes. He'll presumably defeat Matthew Diemer (D), and head to Congress to join some of the other model citizens there.

    And finally, barring a major change in the district maps (certainly possible), OH-09 figures to be the swingiest district in Ohio. The Democrat in that race will be Rep. Marcy Kaptur, who was unopposed. She will face off against challenger J.R. Majewski (R), who took 35.8%, outdistancing the nearest finisher by more than 5 points. Is Majewski Trumpy? Well, here's a picture of his front lawn:

    A massive image of Trump covers
the entire lawn

    Even if OH-09 ends up EVEN, or near to it, Majewski seems a poor fit and not much a threat to Kaptur. It's also worth noting that Kaptur is the longest-serving woman in the history of the House (1983 to present) and is the second-longest-serving woman in the history of Congress (behind former senator Barbara Mikulski). She's obviously pretty good at swatting flies away, even those with frightening lawn decorations.

  • Turnout: Republican turnout last night outnumbered Democratic turnout roughly 2-to-1. There were some very heated Republican races, and no competitive Democratic races (at least, not statewide), so don't read too much into that. But it's not nothing, either. Also, Republicans sent in roughly 60% more absentee ballots than Democrats did. That may suggest that Republican dislike of voting-by-mail is abating.

And that's pretty much it, as far as Ohio goes. (Z)

...Indiana and Michigan, Too

Nearly everything of interest last night took place in Ohio. Indiana is a redder state with a thinner Democratic bench. Its statewide offices are not up this year, and the Senate race will feature candidates on both sides, namely Sen. Todd Young (R) and Thomas McDermott Jr. (D), who were unopposed. Young is obviously going to win in the general.

That said, there were a few House races in the Hoosier State worth taking notice of. To start, IN-01 is D+4, and Rep. Frank Mrvan (D) did not light the world on fire when winning his first term in 2020. He would have preferred to face off (again) against perennial candidate Mark Leyva, who is pretty wackadoodle, and who loses almost as often as the Cincinnati Reds. However, Leyva was crushed last night, winning only 13.4% of the vote. Instead, Mrvan will face off against Jennifer-Ruth Green, who got 47.1% of the vote. Green is an Air Force veteran, is heavily involved in community service, and is Black. She could certainly give Mrvan a run for his money.

In a testament to the art of the gerrymander, there's no other district in Indiana that's remotely competitive, and there's only one other one that's not ruby red. So, all the other storylines of interest involved exactly which Republican would advance to the general election and a certain victory. In IN-06, Greg Pence took 77.6% of the vote en route to a third term. So, at least one member of the family is employed. In IN-09, former state senator Erin Houchin (R) won the right to succeed Rep. Trey Hollingsworth (R), who promised he would only serve four terms and stuck to that.

Finally, Michigan had a special election last night. Carol Glanville (D) won a special election for the state House seat vacated by Republican Mark Huizenga after he won a special election for a state Senate seat. The district is fairly red (Cook doesn't do state House districts, but it would be roughly R+5 if they did), so Democrats are holding this out as a hopeful sign, and have already sent out a bunch of e-mails crowing about the win. What they are not mentioning is that Glanville's opponent was R.J. Regan (R), who said at a campaign event: "You know that's kind of like having three daughters, and I tell my daughters, well, if rape is inevitable, you should just lie back and enjoy it. That's not how we roll. That's not how I won this election." Hard to understand what point he was trying to make, but many people took offense. It also did not help Regan that at least one of those three daughters urged people to vote against her father. Anyhow, this looks like a race that Regan blew more than it looks like one that Glanville won.

Next up are Nebraska and West Virginia, on Tuesday of next week. And the big story will be whether the Trump-backed Charles Herbster can overcome accusations that he groped eight women. (Z)

The Next Day: 10 News Stories about the Sinking of Roe

There was, as you might guess, a lot of news on a lot of different fronts in response to the premature leak of the Supreme Court's decision to strike down Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood vs. Casey. We're going to run down the 10 biggest ones, with some comment on each:

  1. Polling: Since this is the mother of all political footballs, it seems appropriate to start with polling news. As chance would have it, ABC/The Washington Post had just wrapped up a poll on whether or not Americans would like to see abortion rights maintained. The poll would have been released on Tuesday anyhow; it just ended up being released right after the bombshell dropped. Anyhow, 54% would like to see abortion remain legal while just 28% want to see it outlawed. That's pretty close to a 2-to-1 margin, and is consistent with other recent polling on the issue, such as a recent CNN poll that had it 69% to 30%.

    You presumably don't need us to tell you that this suggests that the Democrats have a golden opportunity to snatch victory from the jaws of midterm defeat. And our guess is that the numbers will skew even further in favor of keeping abortion legal now that the Supreme Court has made its move. You know, you don't know what you have until you lose it, and all that. With that said, there has been much polling along the lines of "60% of Americans want to see harsh sanctions on Russia, but not a war, which is exactly what the Biden administration is doing, and yet only 38% approve of the administration's Ukraine policy." So, you never know about these issue-based polls.

  2. Biden's Response: As is his style, Biden is taking things cautiously. He condemned the Supreme Court's decision, and he called on Congress to codify the right to an abortion, but he said he isn't yet willing to push for the filibuster to be overturned in order to achieve that end.

    At the moment, it's fine for Biden to be a little mealy-mouthed. This is not going to be a one-news-cycle, or one-week-of-news-cycles thing. It's going to be a rest-of-this-midterm-cycle issue. Another 24 hours in, and we stand by our view that this will be the dominant issue of 2022 (and possibly 2024). Anyhow, there is no need for the President to commit to a particular course of action right now. However, if he doesn't eventually show some real leadership here, he will make permanent a reputation for not being able to get things done, and will alienate vast swaths of the Democratic base. In particular, there is zero chance that legislation of this sort gets passed without killing the filibuster, and so Biden has no real option but to eventually climb on board that train and to call for that to happen (even if it ultimately doesn't).

  3. Schumer's Response: For the moment, it is entirely correct for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) to take the lead on this. After all, if there is going to be legislation, it's the Senate where the logjam exists. Schumer has promised to take the fight to the floor of the Senate, but it's hard to see how he can make any progress there. Friend-of-the-filibuster Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) is also anti-abortion. So, his vote to kill the filibuster is not going to be available. Other-friend-of-the-filibuster Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) issued a fairly milquetoast statement yesterday: "Protections in the Senate safeguarding against the erosion of women's access to health care have been used half-a-dozen times in the past ten years, and are more important now than ever." That doesn't seem like someone who's ready to make a move, and even if she is, where's the 50th vote? Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)? Maybe, but that's a longshot.

    Stranger things have happened, of course, like Obamacare surviving two near-death experiences thanks to Sen. John McCain and Chief Justice John Roberts. But it is probably the case that all the Democrats can do here is bring abortion-rights legislation to the precipice, and then try to convince voters in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and maybe Ohio that the party needs a couple more senators to make that happen. Of course, they would also need to hold the House, which might just have gotten a bit easier.

  4. Collins' Response: Besides the Majority Leader, the senator with the most eyes on them yesterday was Susan Collins (R-ME), who said she only voted to confirm Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh after she was confident they would not vote to overturn Roe. Boy, does she have egg on her face now, amirite? Yesterday, she expressed her shock and dismay and said that the two justices' votes were "completely inconsistent" with what they "said in their hearings and in our meetings in my office."

    We could make a joke about "being concerned" here, but let's lay our cards on the table, instead. Collins has been elected to the U.S. Senate five times, and she's not from a Southern state, nor is she a former football coach. That means you can be 100% certain she's plenty smart. Certainly smart enough to know that two Roman Catholics who were vetted by the Federalist Society were near-slam-dunks to vote to strike down Roe. She also thinks that the voters of Maine, the only ones she cares one whit about, are stupid. So stupid that they won't see through her crocodile tears. Collins cast the votes she did because she knew that she was facing a tough reelection bid, and that being the one to torpedo a Republican nomination to the Court would likely mean the end of her career. Any pretensions otherwise are just moose crap, to use a term suited to the state she serves.

  5. McConnell's Response: McConnell, like all prominent Republicans, spent the 24 hours after the leak indignantly talking about his outrage over the leak. He described it as "an attack" on the independence of the Court, and said: "By every indication, this was yet another escalation in the radical left's ongoing campaign to bully and intimidate federal judges and substitute mob rule for the rule of law." Please. This is nearly as large a pile of muskrat crap, to use a term suited to the state he serves, as the pile of moose crap that Collins is peddling. McConnell has never once shown concern for the independence or the integrity of the Court, and he's not going to start this week. No, what he knows is that the actual decision is going to be wildly unpopular, and that the best chance he and the Republicans have is to focus outrage on the leak rather than the ruling. We don't even have to guess about this; Axios has laid hands on a memo hastily written and circulated by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) that instructs members to do just that. It contains this suggested statement:
    The leak of this document is troubling and is indicative of the Radical Left's mission to undermine the institution of the Supreme Court and ultimately pack the Court with liberal judges who will rubber stamp the Democrats' radical agenda. It's wrong and the leaker should be found, fired and potentially prosecuted.
    Sound vaguely familiar? Don't forget that the NRSC takes its marching orders from... Mitch McConnell.

    In any case, this "focus on the leak" stuff might be a viable strategy in the short term. But in a month or two, is anyone going to care exactly how the news was made public? We doubt it.

  6. Leak Detectives: Republicans, both the politicians and their close allies in the media, are behaving as if it's a slam dunk that the leaker was a Democrat/liberal. And, as we wrote yesterday, we think that a Democrat, specifically a Democratic clerk, is the likeliest possibility. But that is far from a certainty, no matter what McConnell and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and Ben Shapiro and Tucker Carlson say. There are/were potential benefits for conservatives in the leak. And many folks who are not in the bag for one partisan faction or another had some fun yesterday working through the various scenarios. And just about everyone agrees that while a Democratic/liberal partisan is the most likely culprit, there is a significant chance it was a Republican/conservative.

    We may never find out unless the person outs themselves, or their contact at Politico does so. The draft opinion is old enough that there is little possibility of re-creating a nearly three-month chain of custody. And it looks to be a photocopy. That means no record on a printer server, or telltale marks from the printer itself.

  7. Leak Historians: In addition to those who are playing Sherlock Holmes right now (too bad there wasn't a dog who didn't bark when the opinion was leaked), there are also those who are cranking out extensive histories of past Supreme Court leaks. See here and here for examples. The upshot is that this sort of thing has certainly happened before, including a partial leak of the initial Roe decision (including the correct vote tally). However, there has never been a leak of an entire draft opinion. This is a huge, huge black eye for the Court.

  8. John Roberts: The Chief Justice was also full of bluster yesterday. He described the leak as a "singular and egregious breach" of trust, and ordered an investigation... while also conceding the document is authentic.

    If you thought our assessment of Collins, or possibly McConnell was... frank, you might want to buckle your seatbelt before you keep reading. John Roberts has made a farce of his high position, and can now be safely ranked among the 2-3 worst Chief Justices in history. Mind you, this assessment has nothing to do with our feelings about his personal political leanings. In part, our judgment is about the leak itself, which speaks to the low regard that one or more members of the Court's inner circle have for his leadership. In part, it is about the Chief's carefully-cultivated reputation for allegedly calling balls and strikes. Is there anyone in the entire country who thinks that Roberts' decisions are governed, first and foremost, by the law? From where we sit, it looks like "protecting the reputation of the Court" is foremost, and "my own personal political agenda" is second, with the law a distant third. Maybe those first two are reversed; we're open to being persuaded on that point. In any event, in trying so hard to demonstrate to everyone that he's about the balls and strikes, Roberts has caused everyone to notice that he is most certainly not about the balls and strikes at all. So, he's utterly failed in his primary objective. When he's all done, they're going to have to make sure to hang his memorial portrait right next to that of Roger Taney.

  9. Don't Fence Me In: Shortly after the decision leaked, police put up barricades around the Supreme Court building. It's a testament to the state of modern American politics, and also of the fact that the Court is no longer held out as being above the fray. You can add that to John Roberts' ledger as well.

  10. Impatience: We guessed yesterday that red states, rather than showing restraint in hopes of taming the backlash, would seize the opportunity to press the advantage. Oklahoma took about 12 hours to prove us right, with Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) signing into law the bill that bans abortion at 6 weeks, and that implements a Texas-style enforcement scheme. It's true that wheels were in motion here before the SCOTUS leak. But it's also true that Stitt made a point of expressing his delight that he could be the first to capitalize on the new state of affairs.

That's the rundown. Forgive our strong words, but we have a low tolerance for B.S. Or Maine M.S. Or Kentucky M.S. (Z)

The Next Day: What The Commentariat Is Saying about the Sinking of Roe

All righty, then, you've got some of our thoughts about the big news of the week. Now, how about a rundown of what other outlets are saying?

Left-leaning Commentators

  • Ruth Marcus, The Washington Post, The leaked draft Roe opinion is a disaster for the Supreme Court: "Sorry, but whoever the source, leaking a draft opinion isn't bravery—it's betrayal. I love a leak as much as the next reporter, and kudos to Politico for its scoop, but unlike Congress and the White House, the court can't function this way. It's one thing for information to dribble out after the fact about switched votes, but something else entirely for a draft judicial work product to make its way into breaking-news alerts."

  • Monica Hesse, The Washington Post, The unmerciful ending of Roe v. Wade: "[Samuel] Alito's opinion is barbarous and cruel. It is broad where it could have been narrow. It is scathing where it could have been compassionate. It is, as discussions about abortion often are, so preoccupied with scrambling for the moral high ground that it pays no attention to the women being trampled underfoot."

  • Mark Joseph Stern, Slate, Alito's Leaked Draft Fully Overruling Roe Is Jaw-Dropping and Unprecedented: "Alito's Dobbs opinion does not seek out any middle path. He disparages Roe and its successors as dishonest, illegitimate, and destructive to the court, the country, and the Constitution. He quotes a wide range of anti-abortion activists, scholars, and judges who view abortion as immoral and barbaric; there's even a footnote that approvingly cites Justice Clarence Thomas' debunked theory that abortion is a tool of eugenics against Black Americans."

  • Dahlia Lithwick, Slate, The Supreme Court's Legitimacy Is Already Lost: "The court will surely suffer for this shattering self-own to its own legitimacy. But the rule of law and the public will suffer as well. The three Republican-appointed justices who authored the plurality opinion in Casey knew very well what would happen to the court if it disregarded and disparaged the American public, the Constitution, and itself. Be afraid for what's coming next in terms of personal autonomy and liberty, for LGBTQ protections and the right to contraception, yes. But be equally afraid for the abstraction of an independent and principled judiciary. No matter what happens next, that's already lost."

  • Jesse Wegman, The New York Times, This Supreme Court Is Out of Step With Most Americans: "A breach of such magnitude suggests a breakdown of internal norms that tracks with the broader erosion of American institutions in recent years and the further conversion of the court into a hyperpartisan political body not meaningfully different from Congress. It's not hard to see how that could have happened. Senate Republicans have worked overtime to politicize and polarize the justices, first by stealing a seat from President Barack Obama with nearly a year left in his term and then hustling Justice Barrett through confirmation even as millions of Americans had already cast ballots in the election that would oust her disgraced patron, Mr. Trump. If presidents, senators and nominees act as if anything is fair game in the quest for power, why shouldn't others involved with the institution?"

  • Jill Filipovic, CNN, Conservatives aren't going to stop with abortion, and this draft opinion proves it: "Already, anti-abortion groups and activists have made clear they believe many forms of contraception, from the IUD to the birth control pill, are tantamount to abortion. Many large networks of anti-abortion 'crisis pregnancy centers,' which largely exist to talk women out of abortion and virtually none of which even provide basic prenatal care, formally bar their centers from giving women contraception. Abortion opponents have taken cases all the way to the Supreme Court (and won) on their false claims that the IUD is a form of abortion. Make no mistake: These groups are coming for contraception, too."

International Commentators

  • Vinay Menon, The Toronto Star, With Roe v. Wade in danger of being overturned, it's time for Canada to offer gender asylum to American women: "Apparently, stare decisis is optional in the polarized culture wars. If you are in a same-sex relationship in America, I would strongly urge you to get hitched before gay marriage gets overturned next. That's where this is going. Somehow, American conservatives went from the party of Lincoln and Reagan to the party of QAnon and Marjorie Taylor Greene. The GOP writ large embraces conspiracy theories and old-timey bugaboos that no longer dovetail with majority consensus. It exists in a parallel universe where reality takes a back seat to seething rage over any threat of social change. Tucker Carlson's audience is made up of viewers shaking their fists at clouds."

  • Fr. Michael Coren, The Toronto Star, Nothing Christian about war on women's reproductive rights: "What does run through scripture, if we read it through the light-filled prism of Gospel love and empathy, is care for the marginalized and powerless. And it's poor and racialized women in particular who will suffer if the extremists have their way. This isn't about life and never has been. It's about control. Of women, freedom, and progress. As a Christian I know where I have to stand."

  • Moira Donegan, The Guardian, As the US supreme court moves to end abortion, is America still a free country?: "The question at hand is whether half of the country will have control over their own insides, or whether the government can be so intimately evil that it can enforce its vision of gender conformity even within its citizens' own organs. It is a question of whether an individual American can have the dignity and the freedom to choose her own family, to maintain her own health, and to shape the course of her own life—or whether that freedom is withheld based on her sex."

  • Anthony Zurcher, BBC News, A Supreme Court in crisis: "The veil of secrecy that has protected the court, carefully maintained even around the most significant and controversial decisions, has been shredded."

Right-leaning Commentators

  • Editorial Board, The New York Post, The left's hypocrisy exposed in leaked Roe v. Wade decision: "For decades the left was perfectly happy for the court to invent law, like Roe, that it couldn't pass through Congress. But then the balance shifted to conservatives, and suddenly progressives were calling the Supremes illegitimate. They threatened to pack the court. They enlisted the press to slander Justice Clarence Thomas. And now they've leaked inside drafts of a confidential deliberating process."

  • George Will, The Washington Post, Alito's argument is less a refutation of Roe than a starting over: "Hysteria is the default mode of many Americans of all persuasions who engage in civic arguments. So, by late June, when the court would normally be expected to issue a momentous opinion, such people will have worked themselves into an apocalyptic frenzy. If the court overturns the postulated constitutional requirement for America's almost uniquely radical abortion regime, there will still be a frenzy, but two months of emotions will have been vented."

  • Dick Morris, Newsmax, If Roe is Overturned, 90 Percent of Abortions Will Still Be Legal: "The Mississippi law under review only bans abortions after 15 weeks, almost up to the start of the second trimester. It does nothing to limit them before 15 weeks—four months! If you don't know you are pregnant after four months, you need more than a pregnancy test. You need to have your head examined."

  • Jim Trusty, Fox, Roe v Wade Supreme Court opinion leak is historic act of judicial destruction: "Those who believe in the concept that the ends justify the means will accelerate the national conversation right to the substance of the so-called draft opinion. Worse, the leaker or leakers will likely, in my estimation, be celebrated by many as having engaged in some form of 'heroic resistance,' a Rosa Parks who refused to watch evil old judges change the state of federal law on abortion. This mindless approval will compound a historic act of malfeasance."

  • Jennifer Oliver O'Connell,, With Roe v. Wade in the Balance, the Left Is Changing Its Tune From 'What Are Women?' to 'We Are Protectors of Women': "Americans, and especially women, are struggling and starving under Bidenflation. If my neighborhood feed is a barometer, mothers are crying for help as they experience the diminishing returns of high gas and food prices. The Democratic Left sees no problem using children for medical and social experiments without parental consent, and any mention of the uniqueness and exclusivity of the female gender is couched as 'hatred' and an offense to the transgender agenda. Our newest Supreme Court Justice cannot even define what a woman is, because in her own words, 'she's not a biologist.' But now that Roe v. Wade hangs in the balance, suddenly protecting 'women' and their reproductive rights is at the forefront again. Hypocrisy much? Riddle me this: How can Congress protect a woman's right to choose when they are incapable of defining what a woman is?"

  • Charlie Sykes, The Bulwark, The End of Roe?: "Prepare to dust off all of the clichés about the dog who catches the car, because that's exactly what's happened here. For years the GOP has campaigned against Roe, but without any realistic expectation that it would actually be overturned. Republicans are keenly aware that polls have consistently shown that while opinion on abortion itself is mixed, a strong majority of voters opposes overturning Roe. So short-term, advantage Democrats? But only if they focus on abortion rights, and not chase the bright shiny object of court-packing."

And there you have it. (Z)

New York Has a New Lieutenant Governor

Given that the last guy she picked appears to be a crook, maybe Gov. Kathy Hochul was trying to sneak this one in under the radar, knowing that the primaries and the fallout from the Supreme Court leak would be sucking up most of the oxygen. In any event, she announced her (latest?) pick to be her right-hand man: Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-NY).

It would seem that the Governor decided that the state legislature is a wretched hive of scum and villainy, and so decided to skip it altogether in favor of a member of New York's congressional delegation. As to Delgado, his district is NY-19, and is one of those that is in dispute as a result of the court fight over gerrymandering. He must have decided he doesn't want to hang around to see how it turns out. Given that the ballot for this year's elections is already set, Delgado won't keep his new job beyond January of next year, but maybe he's positioning himself for some future run for office, or for a few cushy corporate board gigs.

In any event, it's yet another Democratic retirement, and in a district where the Party could likely really use an incumbent. This choice could easily cost the Democrats a House seat. If the Republicans capture the House 218 to 217, then Hochul's unforced error will be to blame. Delgado's current district is R+2 but the New York Court of Appeals has ordered a new map to be drawn by a special master so we don't know what it will look like. Still, with all the Democratic politicians in a large state to choose from, Hochul has chosen one of the few who might well cost the Democrats a crucial House seat they could have won if he were the candidate. (Z)

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---The Votemaster and Zenger
May03 Supreme Court to Sink Roe
May03 The 1/6 Committee Is Humming Along
May03 Trump Forgets Vance's Name
May03 A Second Herbster Accuser Identifies Herself
May03 Columbia Dumps Oz
May03 Is There a Semi-Trumpy Lane?
May03 It's a Funny Thing...
May02 Nancy Pelosi Visits Kyiv
May02 Biden Kills It at White House Correspondents' Dinner
May02 The Primaries Are Starting in Earnest
May02 Biden May Wipe Out Some Student Debt
May02 What Will Twitter Contain If Musk Stops Censorship?
May02 A Handful of Billionaires Control the News
May02 Mayorkas Is Working on His Defense Already
May02 Tucker Carlson's Audience Just Loves White Nationalism
May01 Sunday Mailbag
Apr30 Saturday Q&A
Apr29 Oklahoma One-Ups Texas
Apr29 Mayorkas Gets a Preview of Life Under a Republican-led House
Apr29 Trump Grand Jury Expires
Apr29 Governors Up in 2022 Look to Be in Good Shape
Apr29 Trump Endorses in Nevada
Apr29 Rep. Kai Kahele to Retire from the House
Apr29 Democrats Gunning for Cawthorn
Apr29 This Week in Schadenfreude
Apr28 McCarthy Got a Standing Ovation from the House GOP Caucus Yesterday
Apr28 New York Court of Appeals Throws Out Gerrymandered Map
Apr28 Trump Appeals Contempt Ruling
Apr28 New Hampshire May Go First in 2024
Apr28 Harris Has COVID-19 and Is Taking Paxlovid
Apr28 Microsoft Has Detected Hundreds of Russian Cyberattacks in Ukraine
Apr28 Black Voters Are Stuck
Apr28 Cawthorn Caught at Airport with Loaded Gun
Apr27 What about the Leprechaun Police?
Apr27 Perdue's a Dead Man Walking
Apr27 Judge Gives Democrats Immigration Reprieve...
Apr27 ...Though That Doesn't Stop Maggie Hassan from Making an Unforced Error
Apr27 House Republicans Are Shredding Each Other in Public
Apr27 March... Sadness, Part XIX (The Write-Ins)
Apr26 Twitsla
Apr26 Trump Is Contemptible
Apr26 Oz, Rest of Republican Field, All-In on Trumpism During Debate
Apr26 House Republicans Are Working on Their Impeachment Strategy
Apr26 Meadows Texts Made Public
Apr26 Hold the Presses: White House Is Running Short on Crystal
Apr26 March... Sadness, Part XVIII (This One's For All the Marbles)
Apr25 Numerous Republican Politicians Worked with Trump to Overturn the Election
Apr25 Marjorie Taylor Greene Has Alzheimer's Disease
Apr25 Is McCarthy Toast?
Apr25 Right-Wing Billionaire Guns for Conservative Senator