Main page    May 20


Previous | Next | Senate races | Menu

New polls:  
Dem pickups: (None)
GOP pickups: (None)

---

The Grift of the Century Gets Griftier

It is not common that there is a significant election and it's not our lead item of the day. But these are not normal times in which we are living.

(Z), the historian on staff, is very leery of declaring things to be the worst ever, or the most extreme example in American history, or the like, because 250+ years is a long time, and one must be wary of a presentist bias. But there is just no question that the grift that the Trump administration is trying to perpetrate, with the $1,776,000,000 slush fund, is the biggest in American history. Teapot Dome, ABSCAM, Credit Mobilier, the Bush administration's too-cozy relationship with Haliburton—they all pale in comparison. The closest thing is maybe the Burr Conspiracy, wherein former VP Aaron Burr may have tried to grab a bunch of government-owned land and to secede and form an independent country. But that was never proven and besides, even if that was the plan, it was not successful.

Anyhow, the actual settlement agreement was released late Monday, and it's a doozy. On one hand, it's crafted to create a veneer of accountability, since the funds will ostensibly be awarded by a 5-person panel, and that panel will not be appointed by Donald Trump. However, the truth of the matter is that there is no accountability at all. The 5-person panel will be appointed by Acting AG Todd Blanche, whose sole concern is pleasing his boss, and any member who does not "live up" to their responsibilities can be fired by Trump. So much for them being "independent."

All of that was already known yesterday, but now that the agreement is out there, in black and white, it's clear exactly how little accountability there really is. Here are the key terms of the agreement:

• Once the money is transferred to the 5-person panel, the U.S. government no longer has any control over it.
  
  
• The panel will be allowed to make up its own procedures for awarding the funds, including decisions about who can apply, what they need to do to make a claim, and how much a "victim" will receive.
  
  
• The panel will also decide, on a case-by-case basis, how much "evidence" is needed in support of a claim. The claim itself is enough to be awarded money, the committee can decide if any additional evidence is needed.
  
  
• The decisions of the panel cannot be challenged by appeal, arbitration, or judicial review. All decisions are final.
  
  
• The panel has no duty to make its deliberations or its decisions public. The only requirement is that it submit a report, once per quarter, to Blanche. Blanche can then choose whether or not to share that report with the general public. He said he "expects" to do so. We "expect" that he'll hold off on sharing the reports until hell freezes over and pigs fly.

Let's put it this way: Imagine that the panel decides to award every single cent to Trump himself. That is a violation of the signed agreement, and would be plainly illegal. But how would anyone, other than Blanche and the five panel members, even know? And would any of the six people in the know do anything about the obviously fraudulent act? Clearly, the answer is "no."

But wait, there's more. On Tuesday morning, an addendum signed by Blanche himself was added to the agreement. The addendum states that the IRS must drop all audits of Trump's tax returns, and that the agency will be "FOREVER BARRED and PRECLUDED" from ever pursuing investigations of anything tax-related, from Trump or his family or his businesses, that predates the new agreement. That means that the Trumps would be off the hook for ANY tax shenanigans they've perpetrated since, well, the beginning of time. And since it's possible to file amended returns, it might even be possible for Trump to indemnify future shenanigans by stashing them in old returns. Let's also remember that this year's tax deadline has passed, which means Trump has presumably filed his returns. What if, knowing that this deal was brewing, he demanded a tax refund of $5 billion from the federal government? In theory, the government would have to give it to him, and would have no right to say "boo!"

There is arguably an even more troubling implication here. Trump could use the money, again without oversight, to fund a private militia. Between the pardon power and the $1,776,000,000.00, he could potentially make working for him as a Blackshirt very lucrative and potentially prosecution-proof. And actually, Trump doesn't really care if these folks are actually prosecution-proof. All he cares is that they THINK they are prosecution-proof, since that is enough to get them to do his bidding. And in case you think this is a little conspiratorial, well, it's not our conspiracy. It is courtesy of Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD).

We'll give a couple of concrete examples that speak to how very bad this smells. First, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) came out publicly against the compensation fund yesterday, telling reporters he's "not a big fan." Thune usually plays things close to the vest, and can usually be counted upon to back Trump, so his apostasy is notable. Further, he's not just any senator, he's the majority leader. Generally, when the majority leader says something like this publicly, the subtext is "You better drop this, or you could have trouble in the Senate."

Second, Brian Morrissey is the Treasury Department's chief legal officer. Well, actually, he was the chief legal officer until yesterday, when he resigned. It is possible that the timing is just a coincidence, but that stretches credulity. And Morrissey did not blast the White House on the way out the door, so this wasn't an act of protest. That leaves us with the most plausible explanation, which is that laws and legal ethics are about to take a beating, and he doesn't want to be around for it. Going to prison and/or losing your law license is not a great outcome for someone who still has multiple decades left in their legal career.

We do not know what is going to happen next. Certainly, there will be many lawsuits, though we have no idea who will be able to establish standing. Congress could well get involved; this grift is so brazen, and the GOP would take so much punishment, that the whole thing might be a bridge too far. Whatever is going to happen, the rubber is likely to hit the road soon. Former Trump advisor/henchman Michael Caputo has already filed the first claim, and many others are sure to come rolling in soon.

Trump is betting the farm on this stunt. If it works, he will get maybe $1-2 billion and a bunch of allies. However, if the Democrats are able to tie voters' financial pain to Trump's grift, it could be a bloodbath in the Senate in November. Campaigns based on "The $2 billion Trump stole from you could have provided subsidies to make your healthcare affordable" could take off if done right. Despite all the gerrymandering, the Democrats are still favored to win the House. On account of the unforced error Trump made in the Texas Senate race yesterday (see below), the Senate is probably now 50-50. A Democratic Senate means no more judges or justices and most important, when the House impeaches Trump in 2027, there will be an extensive and well-publicized trial in the Senate with a real possibility that under public pressure, enough Republican senators will finally have had their fill of Trump and vote for conviction and banning him from ever being president again (thus ending all "third term" speculation). (Z)

Massie-cre

Donald Trump has claimed another victim, another corpse to toss on the pile of "Republican politicians who displeased me." Following the demise of Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), as well as those state senators in Indiana, the Kentucky votes are in, and relative unknown Ed Gallrein (R) has primaried Trump nemesis Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), 54.8% to 45.2%. In other words, it wasn't even close.

Consequently, Massie is a free agent (and see below for more). He wasn't exactly being constrained by Trump's demands before; we'll see what the Representative does now that he's got nothing to lose. In his concession speech last night, Massie decreed: "What happened today, what happened tonight, was God's will. And we have to figure out what was the purpose of having the biggest fight ever." Hard to know what that means... if anything. The result was certainly Trump's will. Maybe Massie is equating Trump with God to try to get back in his good graces.

There were quite a few meaningful contests last night, over and above the Massie race, so let's organize this by office:

• Governor, Alabama: Gov. Kay Ivey (R) is term-limited, and yesterday Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) easily won his party's nomination to replace her, taking 84.4% of the GOP vote. The Democrat will be former senator Doug Jones, who took 78.6% of the vote in his primary. Tuberville is the dumbest man in the Senate, but that clearly does not bother Alabamians. Nor does the fact that he's a carpetbagger who actually lives in Florida. Jones' only hope is that Tuberville gets involved in a sex scandal, à la Roy Moore. The problem is that if a skeleton like that exists in Tuberville's closet, it surely would have been discovered by now. The second problem is that, after a decade-plus of Donald Trump and his shenanigans, even a history of perverse sex acts might not be enough to derail a Republican candidate. This is 2026; Moore was 2017.
  
  
• Governor, Georgia: As expected, Keisha Lance Bottoms will be the Democratic nominee; she'll avoid a runoff by virtue of having claimed 56.2% of the vote. Some Democratic pooh-bahs did not want her as their standard-bearer, but she's the standard-bearer they've got. The Republican primary will produce a runoff, with Lt. Gov Burt Jones and billionaire Rick Jackson taking 38.4% and 32.5% of the vote, respectively. Secretary of State and Trump nemesis Brad Raffensperger is out of the running, having claimed just 15% of the vote. For what it is worth, nearly 1.1 million Democrats showed up to vote in that party's less competitive primary, whereas fewer than 950,000 Republicans showed up to vote in that party's more competitive primary. Perhaps the U.S. will get its first-ever elected Black, female governor.
  
  
• Governor, Oregon: Gov. Tina Kotek (D), who is not wildly popular, will have a rematch with state Sen. Christine Drazan (R). Against a moderate Republican, in a GOP-friendly year, Kotek might be vulnerable, having won the first time by about 5 points. Against a not-so-moderate Republican, in a Democratic-friendly year, we suspect Kotek will keep her job. That said, the two polls of the Kotek vs. Drazan matchup gave Kotek an average lead of 2.5 points. So, this one may be worth watching.
  
  
• Governor, Pennsylvania: Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) will face off in the general against former state treasurer Stacy Garrity (R). This is not a surprise, since both candidates were unopposed. The polls of the race give Shapiro an average lead of 20 points. So, this one is not worth watching, unless you're scouting potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidates.
  
  
• U.S. Senator, Alabama: The only question here is which Republican will replace Tuberville in the Senate. Rep. Barry Moore, who has Donald Trump's endorsement, has advanced to a runoff, with 39.2% of the vote. His opponent will be either former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson, who sits at 25.6% with 95%+ reporting, or state AG Steve Marshall, who sits at 24.5%. The ultimate nominee will very likely be Moore, who will very likely face off against and defeat Hudson on June 16. Then, Moore (or some other Republican, if he loses) will defeat either attorney Everett Wess or entrepreneur Dakarai Larriett, both of whom are Black, both of whom advanced to the Democratic runoff, and both of whom have no chance of being elected.
  
  
• U.S. Senator, Georgia: Rep. Mike Collins (R) claimed 40.5% of the vote, while former football coach Derek Dooley got 30.2%. They will advance to the runoff on June 16. Rep. Buddy Carter (R), with just 25% of the vote, is on the outside looking in. The winner of Collins-Dooley will face Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), who had no opposition yesterday. The pollsters all think it's going to be Collins in the general, and so have only been polling Collins vs. Ossoff. They have Ossoff as about a 5-point favorite. Donald Trump hasn't endorsed here, but he has said kind things about the very Trumpy Collins. Dooley is backed by Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA). If Collins wins big, that could cloud Kemp's 2028 presidential chances.
  
  
• U.S. Senator, Idaho: Given that Sen. Jim Risch (R) is incumbent, and is a loyal Trump cultist, he performed surprisingly poorly. He still got two-thirds of the vote, though, and so will once again advance to the general and will once again be elected. His Democratic victim is consultant and perennial candidate David Roth, who is 0-for-3 in his previous runs for office, and will soon up that to 0-for-4.
  
  
• U.S. Senator, Kentucky: Rep. Andy Barr (R) had two things going for him, namely Donald Trump's endorsement and white skin. It is therefore no surprise that he defeated former state AG Daniel Cameron, who had neither the endorsement nor the white skin, in a laugher, 60.5% to 30.8%. Barr will face off against former state Rep. Charles Booker (D), who has run for the Senate and lost once before this (in 2022). By virtue of taking 46.8% of the vote, Booker outpaced the 35.9% collected by Marine Corps veteran Amy McGrath, who has also run for the Senate and lost once before this (in 2020). Booker is young, charismatic, Black, and running in a blue-wave-y type year, in a state that does have a Democratic governor. However, he starts out as a heavy underdog; the one poll of the general election matchup has Barr up by 10 points.
  
  
• AL-02, etc.: AL-02 is currently a swing district that leans Democratic, at D+5. That will cease to be true once the state legislature redraws its maps, leaving one very blue district and six very red districts. Indeed, there wasn't even a primary in AL-02 yesterday, as four of the seven districts had their primaries put on hold until the maps are done. We just wanted to remind readers what is going on.
  
  
• GA-02: At D+4, this is nominally Georgia's only swingy district. However, the PVI actually tells a false tale. The district has been represented by Rep. Sanford Bishop (D) for 17 terms. You don't become dean of your state's House delegation without learning a few tricks about getting reelected. He will make that 18 at the expense of entrepreneur Matt Day (R), a white fellow who thinks he knows better what Black Georgians need than the Black man who's been representing the district since the 1990s. Did we mention that the district is 49% Black? We suspect that most of those folks will not find Day's argument persuasive.
  
  
• OR-05: Also D+4, this is Oregon's only swingy district. Unlike Sanford Bishop on the other side of the country, Rep. Janelle Bynum (D) is in the midst of her first term in the House. She will face off against Deschutes County Commissioner Patti Adair (R), who took 59.7% of the vote in a 2-person race. Bynum appears to be fairly popular, and between incumbency and the general political climate, she's the clear favorite here.
  
  
• PA-01: In contrast to Kentucky and Idaho (and soon Alabama), which have no swing districts, and Georgia and Oregon, which have just one, Pennsylvania has many seats that could change hands in November. Way near the top of the list is the D+1 PA-01. It's one of three House districts that Kamala Harris won that is represented by a Republican. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick has spent the last 1½ years walking a careful line between MAGA and sanity. Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie (D) easily won the right yesterday to try to knock Fitzpatrick off, taking 65.1% of the vote. We suspect that the national political climate, plus the increasingly blue hue of the Philly suburbs, will be more than Fitzpatrick can handle.
  
  
• PA-07: This R+1 district is awfully similar to PA-01, excepting that it's Philly exurbs rather than suburbs, and the Republican who currently represents the district is Ryan Mackenzie, who is more MAGA than Brian Fitzpatrick is. The frontrunner for the Democratic nomination was initially former county executive Lamont McClure, but he was overtaken by progressive former firefighter Bob Brooks, who took 40.1% of the vote yesterday, to 20.6% for McClure and 20.5% for former DoJ prosecutor Ryan Crosswell. If you're thinking "shades of Graham Platner," well, you're not the only one. Certainly, voters in PA-07 will have a very clear choice to make.
  
  
• PA-08: This district is R+4, and its Republican representative, Rob Bresnahan, is also at risk. He's very wealthy, however, so he can self-fund in his effort to keep his job. He will face off against Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti (D); it's hard to think of a political office that says "blue collar" more loudly than "Mayor of Scranton." It wouldn't be too much of a surprise to see "Scranton Joe" show up to campaign for Cognetti, since the DCCC has made this district—held for more than a decade by the blue team before Bresnahan won the term he's now serving—a top target.
  
  
• PA-10: This one is R+3, and is yet another Republican-held district being targeted by Democrats. Rep. Scott Perry, who was unopposed yesterday, will face former news anchor Janelle Stelson (D), who easily dispatched her sole opponent with 67.5% of the vote. She is running a very centrist campaign.
  
  
• PA-17: And finally, at D+3, this is the only swingy Pennsylvania district currently held by a Democrat. That would be Rep. Chris Deluzio, who was unopposed yesterday. He will be challenged by Beaver County Sheriff Tony Guy (R), who appears to be, well, just a guy. He's running a pretty MAGA campaign, focused on scapegoating immigrants and "protecting" women's sports, which seems a poor fit for a blue-leaning district.

That's the news for now. Next week is the big election in Texas, aka the "Requiem for Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX)." Keep reading if you don't know what we mean. (Z)

Trump Foolishly Endorses Paxton

AG Ken Paxton (R-TX) entered the race for the U.S. Senate seat currently occupied by John Cornyn on November 12 of last year. There was no doubt that Cornyn would run for reelection, so Donald Trump has had 189 days to make an endorsement. He finally did so yesterday, bestowing his blessing on Paxton.

Let us explain why Trump did this before we get into the discussion of why it was all kinds of stupid. The primary driver of this hasty and impetuous act was... John Thune. Trump is very angry at Thune, because: (1) Thune refuses to fire (or get the Senate to overrule) Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough, so that the Senate can pass the $1 billion for Trump's balls, and (2) Thune dared to be critical of the slush fund (see above). Thune is not up this year, but he's backing Cornyn, and so poking Cornyn in the eye is a way to poke Thune in the eye, by proxy.

The other reason Trump did this is that he wants the "win." He likes to brag about his shiny batting average. Further, if Trump can take down two sitting senators in 2 weeks, not to mention Thomas Massie, then he hopes and believes the remaining senators will tremble at the mere mention of his name. Controlling the House is not such a problem for the Donald, since Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is an obedient lapdog, and since most House Republicans are too scared to break ranks. Getting the Senate to do Trump's bidding is much harder, because of arcana like the filibuster.

And now we move on to the "What a moron!" part of the discussion. Here is a list of the most obvious ways in which this was a very foolish move by Trump:

• Texas in Play: If we were going to build the ideal Democratic candidate for Texas from scratch, then a mild-mannered, easygoing, elected official with some experience but not too much who is studying to become a Protestant minister would be the way to go. And the ideal Republican opponent would be an adulterous, corrupt, long-time politician who has been both indicted for crimes and impeached. That is now almost certainly going to be the matchup in the general election.
  
  Meanwhile, Trump's endorsement, at this point, did... nothing. Paxton was almost certainly going to win anyhow. And he's not going to get more votes in November because he has Trump's backing. On the other hand, "this is the candidate that Trump wanted," which is substantively different than "this is the candidate Trump backed when there were no options remaining," most certainly will get more Democrats and independents to the polls in November. We could be looking at a Roy Moore-like extinction event.
  
  If the Democrats do take the Texas seat, then North Carolina and Maine will likely flip, too. And if the Democrats can hold on to Georgia and Michigan, then they will only need one among Alaska, Iowa, Montana, Nebraska and Ohio. The blue team would prefer Ohio among those, since Sherrod Brown can actually vote like a Democrat most of the time, whereas the other four would have to act like "independents" to a greater or lesser extent, but beggars can't be choosers.
  
  
• Money: Once again, the "author" of The Art of the Deal has demonstrated that when it comes to money matters, he is basically lost. The GOP establishment spent north of $100 million trying to save Cornyn's bacon (well, it's Texas, so trying to save his burnt end). If Trump had endorsed 6 months ago, most of that money could have been saved for other races. Now, it's gone with the wind. Further, if the Republicans hope to save Texas, they will have to throw buckets of money at Paxton. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who is as much a Trump bootlicker as anyone, guessed that it will take $300 million.
  
  If Trump had backed Cornyn, that probably would have saved the Senator. Big-time cash outlays would still have been needed, but maybe just $30 million for the primary, and around $100 million for the general. Instead, the GOP might spend that $130 million, and then a quarter-billion dollars MORE, on Paxton. That's money that won't be available for all the other Senate seats that need to be defended. And if Paxton loses, it will be an even more bitter pill. Plus, once one Democrat gets a statewide foothold, many moderate Texans will see that the Democrats aren't the boogeymen that Fox said they were. Look at what happened once Arizona and North Carolina managed to elect a Democrat or two to high office.
  
  
• Another Free Agent: If Cornyn loses, he will join Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and Thom Tillis (R-NC) as members of the upper chamber who can now vote their conscience. Or their desire for revenge. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is also a potential wild card since he is retiring, albeit for health reasons. See below for one of the implications therein that has already presented itself. At least in the short and medium term, it's not going to get easier for Trump to bend the Senate to his will, it's going to get harder. And by the way, the various Senate Republicans who were asked about the Paxton endorsement yesterday were either hopping mad, or refused to comment.
  
  
• Thune: Cassidy, and Tillis, and very likely Cornyn and Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) are all folks who will have some meaningful power for the next 6 months, and then will leave Washington for the Old Senators' Home. Thune, by contrast, has a fair bit more power, and will not be gone in 6 months. If Trump is going to egregiously undermine the Senate Republican Conference, and is going to indulge in vendettas against Thune himself, the Majority Leader might become far less willing to support the things Trump wants. And he might become far more willing to support the things that Trump does not want. For example, if the Democrats take the House and impeach Trump, it's hard to imagine the votes are there for conviction in the Senate. However, Thune could say, "Well, it is our duty to have a proper trial, and so that is what we will do." Thune doesn't actually have to hold a trial, of course. Remember that the impeachment articles for then-DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas hit the circular file about 2 minutes after they were delivered to the desk of then-Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY).
  
  
• "The Lesson": The moral of the Cassidy story, and of the Massie story, is "Mess with Trump, and your career ends." That is not actually the moral of the Cornyn story, though, as he didn't really mess with Trump in any significant way. Sure, Cornyn was not always fire-breathing in his MAGA-ness, but he always fell into line, and when it was his turn to engage in some performative nonsense, such as sponsoring a bill to rename a Texas freeway after Trump, Cornyn swallowed hard and did his "duty."
  
  What brought Cornyn down was that one of his allies (Thune) angered Trump, and that Cornyn was challenged by someone more MAGA (and more corrupt, and thus more likely to do Trump's shady bidding). The Senator's doom was almost entirely out of his hands. And so the lesson here is: Kowtowing to Trump isn't all that useful, because that is not enough to save your career. One wonders if, particularly as Trump gets lame duckier, other members will start to conclude that there's no real purpose in pandering to the President, since he will eventually turn on you anyhow.

The polling of the Republican primary has been inconsistent, but there have basically been two types of results: (1) Paxton and Cornyn are neck-and-neck (4 of the 6 recent polls of the race), or (2) Paxton has a double-digit lead (the other 2 recent polls of the race, and the 2 most recent polls overall). With Trump on board, Paxton is now the overwhelming favorite to finish Cornyn off next Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Democratic nominee James Talarico (there was no runoff needed in his primary) has been cooling his jets and collecting lots of money. He has almost five times as much cash on hand as Paxton (about $10 million as compared to $2 million), and he's led in four of the last five polls of the hypothetical general election matchup with Paxton (and was tied in the fifth). So, Democrats have reason to be cautiously optimistic that this is finally the year the blue team breaks through in the Lone Star State. (Z & V)

Platner Has a New "Scandal"

We've already talked a lot about Senate races; let's talk about one more before we wrap it up for the day. Graham Platner, the would-be U.S. Senator from Maine, has another social-media-related scandal on his hands. Fox, that bastion of quality journalism, managed to lay hands on some Reddit posts that Platner wrote in the r/USMC forum several years back, Reddit posts that the Fox headline describes as "crude."

We certainly do not dispute that characterization. For example, while deployed to Afghanistan, Platner saw a phallic drawing on the inside of a porta-potty. And in 2021, he gave his ribald "review" of the "art" in an r/USMC subreddit specifically set up for this particular subject, namely GWOT Di** Art. In case you are wondering what the "GWOT" means, it stands for "Global War on Terror."

It would be very hard to convey how very little we care about this revelation. First of all, the whole point of Reddit, pretty much, is that it's edgy. Everyone on there is trying to impress everyone else on there with how edgy they are. Plus, Platner is a U.S. Marine. And he was deployed in a combat zone. If anyone is surprised that the conversation wasn't exactly G-rated, then that person clearly hasn't known many Marines. Or combat veterans. Indeed, what Platner wrote was actually on the tame end of the scale by jarhead standards.

So, if we are utterly unimpressed, why are we passing this news along? Because we assume that there are many folks out there—right-wing media, the oppo research staff of Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), the DSCC (until recently), the general media—looking under every rock for dirt on Platner. If this is the best that any of them can come up with, then it suggests to us that there aren't many skeletons left out there. Platner has already overcome the Nazi tattoo, by all indications, and the edgy Twitter posts, and we are confident he will quickly overcome the edgy Reddit posts, too. That means that the Maine U.S. Senate election will be decided primarily on the merits of the two candidates. Which, we would say, is not good news for Collins. (Z)

Commander-in-Chicken

TACO—Trump Always Chickens Out—is particularly apt these days, when it comes to the Iran war. It's accurate as metaphor, because Donald Trump wilted once again this week after threatening to unleash armageddon on Iran. And it's very nearly accurate in a literal sense, because he's running around like a chicken with its head cut off.

To start with, on Sunday night, the Commander-in-Chief posted this to his gallinaceous social media platform:

For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won't be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE! President DJT

This has to be what, the fifth or sixth time that Trump has hinted at either a nuclear strike, or a genocide of the Iranian people, or both?

We do not know who these messages are intended for. It can't be the Iranians, can it? They're not going to surrender just because Trump shook his fist at some clouds. Whoever the intended audience is, whether the Ayatollahs or someone else, nobody takes such verbiage from Trump seriously anymore. After all, TACO. And indeed, it took less than half a day before he backed off, at the "request" of Middle Eastern leaders. Trump said that he'll probably order the attack next week. Yeah, sure. And he'll also gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.

This is not to say that Trump won't order an attack on Iran. He might, since he's got few other options, beyond running from Iran as fast as he can with his tail between his legs. Our point is that Trump is the world's worst poker player. Whenever he shows strength, he's bluffing. When he's quiet, THAT is when he might have something. Ipso facto, Trump bluster not only doesn't impress anyone, it pretty much makes clear that he's got 2-7 offsuit, and that he has no intention of pushing all-in.

That said, if Trump does try to attack Iran, he's got some pretty serious issues to be worried about. Such an attack would be very unpopular politically, and would commit him even more fully to the Iran War than is already the case. Further, the Pentagon is running out of smart missiles, and has awarded no new munitions contracts. So, Trump might not have the firepower to hit Iran again, unless he's willing to go nuclear, which would open up several additional unpleasant kettles of fish.

On the other hand, idling in neutral is not working so well for Trump right now, either. The first problem is that Congress is getting rambunctious. They know the deadline established by the War Powers Act has long been exceeded, and they are increasingly inclined to do something about it. Late last week, a bill that would rein Trump in failed to clear the House by the narrowest of margins, 212-212, with three Republicans (all in swingy districts) crossing the aisle to vote with the Democrats.

Yesterday, meanwhile, the Senate voted 50-47 to bring a similar measure to the floor of that chamber. This is far from the first time that this has been attempted, but now there are four Republican senators voting for the measure, up from three in previous weeks. The three GOP stalwarts are Susan Collins (ME), Lisa Murkowski (AK) and Rand Paul (KY). The new arrival at the party is... Bill Cassidy (LA). With John Fetterman (PA) crossing the aisle to vote with the Republicans, it means that just one more Republican defector is needed once the bill comes up for a vote. John Cornyn, perhaps?

On top of that, Trump says he does not care about Americans' pocketbooks. We don't know if that's true, but we do know that Americans care about their own pocketbooks, and that they will punish Republicans at the polls if the economy remains topsy-turvy over the next few months. Consequently, non-Trump Republicans, at least the ones up this year, also care about Americans' pocketbooks.

And the news on the economic front is... troubling. Starting with gas, because it's an obvious indicator that nearly everyone notices, the national price per gallon, on average, is $4.55/gal. This is up about a nickel from a week ago, and is up about 50 cents from a month ago. And the experts say that $5/gallon is likely just a matter of time.

And the gasbag's gas-bag-of-tricks is effectively empty. Trump ordered the largest one-week release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in U.S. history last week, and... it did not make a dent. Trump and Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) are pushing to suspend the federal gas tax, but even if they are successful (far from a sure thing), the average driver would save about $9 a month. Hardly something to write home about.

But while gas is most noticeable to the average Joe and Jill, the more important indicator is certainly 30-year US Treasury yields, since those affect the entire economy, including interest rates, inflation, the stock market, etc. Right now, yields are at a 19-year high—in other words, the highest they have been since the Great Recession. This means it is more expensive for the government to borrow money, and thus more expensive for the government to pay its bills.

The executive summary is this: Trump can't back down because of his ego, and because of questions like "So, what exactly did we waste all that money and all those soldiers' lives for?" He can't move forward because it's not likely to work, and he doesn't have the munitions. And he can't keep doing nothing, because Congress is getting antsy and the economy is going off the rails. He's created quite a Gordian knot for himself, despite the fact that he undoubtedly has no idea what a Gordian knot even is. (Z)

Previous | Next

Main page for smartphones