Garland Is Not Going to Let It Be

Yesterday, we suggested that AG Merrick Garland had a tough choice when it came to appointing a special counsel to look into the secure documents found in Joe Biden's post-vice-presidential offices. To make an appointment would suggest an equivalence between the actions of Biden (probably not illegal) and Donald Trump (probably illegal), but to forego an appointment would open the AG and the Department of Justice up to charges of bias, witch hunting, etc.

As it turns out, Garland didn't take any time at all to decide, because less than 48 hours after the news of the documents first broke, he did indeed appoint a special counsel. It's former U.S. attorney Robert Hur. Like John Lausch, who had been leading the investigation (and who will continue to help), Hur was appointed U.S. attorney under Donald Trump. That means it will be at least a little harder for right-wing partisans to attack any conclusions that Hur might reach. After all, if he and Lausch are incompetent, corrupt, agents of the deep state, etc., then why did Trump appoint them to office?

In addition to the appointment of the special counsel, we have now learned something more about the second cache of documents discovered by Team Biden. They were found in the President's home library at his house in Delaware, and were turned over to the National Archives on December 20. That's about 7 weeks after the first group of documents was discovered and surrendered. Clearly, as soon as that first discovery was made, Biden's lawyers did a full review of all sites where documents might have been stored. Given how much searching can be done in 7 weeks, and that there have been no further revelations, we assume this is the end of the discoveries. That said, tomorrow never knows.

We also tend to assume that it won't be long until Hur completes his investigation, since there are less than two dozen documents involved, and since Team Biden is cooperating fully. Almost certainly, because the Trump situation is vastly messier and more complicated, any decision on Trump will wait until after a decision on Biden is made. That means even more pressure on special counsel Jack Smith. He knew he was putting himself in between a rock and a hard place when he took this gig, and since then, well, things aren't getting better.

The reaction on the right, meanwhile, continues to be predictable. With one notable exception, which we'll get to in a moment, they've come together to air grievances aplenty about the DoJ, the media, Biden, Garland, the deep state, etc. Never mind that the Biden and Trump situations have clear differences and that, in any event, no conclusions have been reached about either case. Consider, for example, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who appeared on Fox's airwaves to do some whining and complaining. He was not only unable to answer softball questions about the situation, but he also claimed that "you can't find this story anywhere really but on Fox."

That claim is patently false. Media Matters did a snap study and found that the Biden documents story is actually getting more coverage from the non-right-wing outlets than from the right-wing outlets. There are really two lessons here. The first is that alleged left-wing outlets are more than happy to rain on a Democrat's parade if there is the faintest whiff of scandal. As Al Franken points out in several of his books, the political bias of the mainstream media (left and right) pales in comparison to the bias in favor of scandal and gossip.

The second lesson, meanwhile, is that right-wing complaints about the media are almost entirely reflexive, and often have no actual basis in reality. Graham clearly had not even looked at the coverage of the story, and was barely familiar with even the basic details. But a Fox producer just had to say the word, and the Senator was happy to mic up and lament how unfair the non-Fox media is and how Donald Trump always gets a bum rap, and so forth.

As to the right-winger who is the notable exception to the Trump pity parade, it's... Karl Rove. He's been appearing on Fox with a whiteboard to lay out exactly how different the Biden and Trump cases are, and to argue that if anyone is at risk of ending up in chains, it's the former president and not the current one. Rove was once the GOP spin doctor par excellence, but these days, he apparently totes the water for no one, since this is not the first occasion in recent memory that Rove has gone against MAGA orthodoxy. Trump is furious, of course, but there's little he can do besides fume. It's been a long, long, long time since Rove had to be worried about his place in the Republican hierarchy. Like James Carville, he's a retired political operative and current commentator, and that's what he'll be for the remainder of his days.

And the count, for those who are wondering, is 17 (if you include the headline). The full list appears below. (Z)

Biden Administration Frees Another American Held by Russia

When Brittney Griner was detained by the Russian government, it got a lot of attention. This is understandable (which, take note, is not necessarily the same thing as justifiable) since she's a celebrity, and since she was pretty clearly popped under questionable pretenses. And when she was freed, Paul Whelan quite suddenly joined her in getting a lot of attention, primarily from the right-wing media. This is understandable (again, not necessarily justifiable), since he has been in custody longer, and since he's white, straight, male and a veteran. Those who held Whelan up as a symbol of how out-of-whack the Biden administration's priorities are did not generally mention that Whelan was dishonorably discharged, or that Russia was not willing to give him up. After all, we must have our narratives.

Yesterday, it was announced that the Biden administration has secured the release of Taylor Dudley, who has been in custody over a year. The heavy lifting here was done by former governor of New Mexico and current director of The Richardson Center for Global Engagement, Bill Richardson, who managed to extricate Dudley without having to trade anyone for him.

In theory, this should be a perfect ending from the vantage point of the right-wing media. After all, Dudley is a straight, white, male veteran and he was retrieved without having to give up, say, a spy or a terrorist or an arms dealer. This is exactly what Tucker Carlson, et al. said the Biden administration should be focusing on back when there was so much whining and groaning about Whelan. However, covering the Dudley release would mean giving credit to a Democratic president, which would be considerably worse than death by Scaphism as far as the Foxes and Breitbarts and RedStates of the world are concerned. And so, there was little to no coverage from that part of the media spectrum (and we checked multiple times throughout the day yesterday). This might just say something about the true priorities of those outlets.

Meanwhile, the non-right-wing media covered the story, but we doubt it's going to get attention for more than one cycle. After all, Dudley is not a celebrity Black lesbian. Nor is he a cute blonde female college student (you should strongly consider clicking on that link). There's little to no controversy here, and, in contrast to the Griner release, no right-wing kvetching. So, there's no basis for thought pieces about the standard thought-piece subjects. Too bad, because Richardson in particular deserves a lot more praise and attention than he's actually going to get. Although, if he keeps doing good work through his organization, there could be a Nobel Peace Prize in his future, per the Jimmy Carter playbook. (Z)

Nebraska Has a New Senator

This was expected by anyone who follows politics, and now it has officially come to pass: Yesterday, Gov. Jim Pillen (R-NE) tapped former governor Pete Ricketts (R) to assume the U.S. Senate seat that was just vacated by Ben Sasse (R).

Announcing the pick, Pillen said he evaluated Ricketts' chances of winning reelection and his commitment to staying in the Senate long term so that he can develop some seniority and bring home the bacon (or, really, the corn subsidies). That sounds good, but what Pillen really evaluated was Ricketts' help in helping secure the GOP nomination for governor in 2022, and the six-figure check Ricketts then wrote to Pillen's super PAC. The Governor knows that, in politics, when someone scratches your back, you damn well better scratch theirs.

That said, Ricketts does indeed have an excellent chance of being reelected in 2024 (when a special election will have to be held, per Nebraska law) and in 2026 (when Sasse's term expires). Appointed senators are a hit-and-miss proposition, but as a former governor (he left office a week ago), Ricketts has universal name recognition, and can obviously win statewide in Nebraska. He also has more money than Croesus, as the son of the man who founded TD Ameritrade. The only risk to the new senator, in a state as red as Nebraska, is a primary challenge from the right. So, he's likely to err a little (or a lot) on the side of extremism, and is not terribly likely to be a vote to, say, overcome a filibuster. (Z)

Looking Forward: Our Predictions for 2023

And now, the time has come to unveil our predictions for 2023. Let's roll:

• After 2 years of stability in the cabinet, Joe Biden will have to replace two secretaries this year.
  
  Boldness: ?/5. ???.
  
  
• Donald Trump will not only be indicted twice, but the two indictments will come within 60 days of each other.
  
  Boldness: ?/5. ???.
  
  
• In the final 2023 poll of the Republican primaries, Trump will have the support of no more than one-third of Republican voters
  
  Boldness: ?/5. ???.
  
  
• By the time the Fourth of July holiday arrives, Rep. "George Santos" (R-NY) will not be a member of the House anymore.
  
  Boldness: ?/5. ???.
  
  
• Speaking of Santos, he is currently the only openly-LGBTQ+ Republican member of Congress. By the end of 2023, there will be at least one more Republican member who is out of the closet.
  
  Boldness: ?/5. ???.
  
  
• At least one more member of Congress (in addition to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema) will leave their party to become an independent.
  
  Boldness: ?/5. ???.
  
  
• Speaking of Sinema, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) will not only announce that he's challenging her, he'll lead her in the final 2023 poll of the race by at least 10 points.
  
  Boldness: ?/5. ???.
  
  
• By the end of 2023, there will be at least one 2024 Republican U.S. Senate candidate whose sole credential is "I'm a celebrity," and who has no experience in political office.
  
  Boldness: ?/5. ???.
  
  
• Three of America's ten largest cities will have a new mayor by the end of 2023.
  
  Boldness: ?/5. ???.
  
  
• At least one of the right-wing social media platforms (Truth, Parler, Gab, Gettr, Rumble) will go out of business.
  
  Boldness: ?/5. ???.
  
  
• Vladimir Putin will be out of power by year's end.
  
  Boldness: ?/5. ???.
  
  
• In the wake of Trevor Noah's departure last December, Al Franken will take over as permanent host of The Daily Show
  
  Boldness: ?/5. ???.

We self-evaluated in terms of both boldness and accuracy for 2022, but we don't enjoy doing that. So, we're going to switch this year, and let readers make the judgments. If you care to help out, click here to rate our predictions on a scale of 0 (as conservative as Mitch McConnell's ties) to 5 (as far out there than Marjorie Taylor Greene's views on Jewish space lasers). We'll revisit this next week.

Also, the mailbox is now open for reader predictions. We'll be organizing them into the following categories:

• The Biden Administration
• The Congress
• The Supreme Court
• U.S. Domestic Affairs
• Foreign Affairs
• Republican Politicians and Media
• Democratic Politicians and Media
• The Economy
• Other

We look forward to seeing what you come up with! (V & Z)

And Speaking of Predictions...

Last week, we gave readers the chance to make their best guess as to how many days before Kevin McCarthy is subject to a motion to vacate the chair, and said we would report the results today. Here they are, along with the actual date that the various numbers translate to:

	Guess	Date
Lowest guess	1 day	Jan. 8, 2023
Highest guess	725 days	Jan. 3, 2025
Mean (average guess)	165 days	June 20, 2023
Median (middle guess)	100 days	Apr. 16, 2023
Mode (most common guess)	725 days	Jan. 3, 2025
(V)'s guess	90 days	Apr. 6, 2023
(Z)'s guess	185 days	July 12, 2023

A little over 5% of respondents thought McCarthy would make it all the way to the end of the term (725 days) without a motion to vacate being filed. Of course, that means that almost 95% think he won't make it through that time. Meanwhile, the mean guess of 165 days will arrive right as the discussion over raising the debt ceiling will (presumably) start to heat up. The government is expected to hit the limit sometime in early July, at which point Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen can use smoke, mirrors and black magick to keep things going for 2-8 more weeks.

And now, we wait... (Z)

This Week in Schadenfreude: Bigotry of Bigotries Saith the Preacher, All Is Bigotry

For those who don't know it, allow us to present what is probably the most famous joke in the repertoire of the comedian Emo Phillips:

Once I saw this guy on a bridge about to jump. I said, "Don't do it!"
He said, "Nobody loves me."
I said, "God loves you. Do you believe in God?"
He said, "Yes."
I said, "Are you a Christian or a Jew?"
He said, "A Christian."
I said, "Me, too! Protestant or Catholic?"
He said, "Protestant."
I said, "Me, too! What franchise?"
He said, "Baptist."
I said, "Me, too! Northern Baptist or Southern Baptist?"
He said, "Northern Baptist."
I said, "Me, too! Northern Conservative Baptist or Northern Liberal Baptist?"
He said, "Northern Conservative Baptist."
I said, "Me, too! Northern Conservative Baptist Great Lakes Region, or Northern Conservative Baptist Eastern Region?"
He said, "Northern Conservative Baptist Great Lakes Region."
I said, "Me, too! Northern Conservative Baptist Great Lakes Region Council of 1879, or Northern Conservative Baptist Great Lakes Region Council of 1912?"
He said, "Northern Conservative Baptist Great Lakes Region Council of 1912.
I said, "Die, heretic!" And I pushed him over.

We offer this as prelude to discussing the nastiness that has developed around the competition to be the RNC Chair.

As readers will recall, Ronna Romney McDaniel would very much like to keep her job for a third term. However, some members of the Republican Party don't support that, either because they think she is not sufficiently fanatical enough, or because they are unhappy she has overseen three straight poor elections for the Party, or both. Consequently, she has drawn two "name" contenders: MyPillow guy Mike Lindell (who is now also selling poor-quality slippers, incidentally) and Donald Trump lawyer and adviser Harmeet Dhillon.

McDaniel remains the frontrunner, and the only real hope that the challengers have is if they can consolidate the entire anti-McDaniel vote. So, advocates for both Lindell and Dhillon have taken to arguing that the opposition is not sufficiently committed to Republican Party values. Team Dhillon is pointing out that Lindell is a nutter (which is true) and that he has some very un-American and unconstitutional ideas (which is also true). Team Lindell is pointing out that Dhillon is a Sikh (which is true) and that "Sikh values" are not American values (which is narrow-minded prattle).

We are not fans of bigotry around here, of course. However, this is a party that has spent much of its energy in the past decade (or two, or three) talking loudly about all the people they hate (LGBTQ+, Antifa, Black Lives Matter, RINOs, most/all Democrats, the Clintons, Nancy Pelosi, AOC, etc.). And both Lindell and Dhillon have been enthusiastic participants in that process. The problem with movements that are obsessed with figuring out who the "other" is, and consequently with increasingly narrow "purity" tests to decide who is still acceptable, is that the various factions eventually turn on each other, deeming one another to be insufficiently loyal/authentic/committed, etc. See, for example, the Jacobins in late 18th century France, Russian communists after the revolution, or the current House Republican Conference.

Now, the finger-pointing is taking place not only in the House, but at the highest levels of what was once the Party of Lincoln. And the leadership, which has done its best impression of two-thirds of the proverbial monkeys (See No Evil, Hear No Evil) really has nobody to blame but themselves. As ye sow, so shall ye reap. (Z)

This Week in Freudenfreude: This Bugs Me

Following the item above about Taylor Dudley, this is our second navy veteran item of the day. In this case, the veteran is Warren Marion, who concluded his service many years ago. Unfortunately for him, as he reached his golden years, he did not have enough money to retire on. So, he took a job as a Walmart greeter, working a full-time schedule through the age of 82.

Enter, stage right, one Rory McCarty. McCarty shops often at Walmart, primarily for supplies for his work as an exterminator. And so, he came to know Marion, and eventually learned about his age and his veteran status. McCarty did not much care for the notion that someone, particularly someone who had served in the military, was still grinding away in his eighties.

Fortunately, McCarty is famous. Well, Internet famous. Whenever he encounters a particularly unusual critter in his work, he takes video and posts it to his TikTok. And he's gained a sizable following; more than a quarter-million people. So, he took advantage of that to post a GoFundMe on Marion's behalf. And, nearly overnight, the donations had topped $100,000 (now they are north of $150,000). A couple of weeks ago, Marion arrived for work to find a retirement party and a six-figure cashier's check awaiting him. It would seem that, now that he has money and no need to work, he will sail the seven seas once again (albeit in a cruise ship this time).

We pass this along because there is much criticism of social media in general, and of TikTok in particular (since it is owned by a Chinese company, which may be beholden to the Chinese government). Some of that criticism even comes from us. But we must concede that, in the right hands, social media can also do a great deal of good. If only we could have that, without the conspiracy propagating and the bigotry enabling and the privacy violating.

And on that note, have a good weekend, all! (Z)

The Beatles song titles that appear in the first item, in order of appearance, are: "Let It Be," "Because," "Yesterday," "Any Time at All," "Help," "Something," "The End," "Tomorrow Never Knows," "It Won't Be Long," "Wait," "Getting Better," "Come Together," "Rain," "The Word," "Chains," "For No One," and "Long, Long, Long."

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