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New polls: FL GA IL MI OH TX
Dem pickups: AK KS ME NC OH TX
GOP pickups: (None)
Wedgewood Polls has been unmasked as a fake operation. From their website, it was clear they were not a political consultant. And The New York Times used 15 of their polls, so we were in good company being fooled. We have deleted all their polls from our database.

This may have been just a prank since their polls are all in line with major pollsters and mostly show Democrats ahead in states where other pollsters also show them to be ahead—and by roughly the same margins as the others. The map and all the graphs and tables on the site are computed from scratch every day, so some of them may be different from yesterday.

Nevertheless, the fake polls have done real damage. Mallory McMorrow (D) was a rising star in Michigan who was running for the Senate. She was ideologically between Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) and Abdul El-Sayed. When a Wedgewood poll put her in single digits, her donations dried up and she was forced out of the race. If Mike Rogers wins the race, a lot of people will be wondering if McMorrow could have won had it not been for the fake Wedgewood poll. Arrrgh.

Apocalypse Now

The Republicans are in a state of advanced panic, from Donald Trump on down. They see the handwriting on the wall, and this time it wasn't signed by God, but by Robert J. Garcia (see below). There is one crazy stunt after another: $90 checks, $5,000 checks, $25 million for whistleblowers, $8 billion for farmers, and on and on. The $90 checks are real but everything else is vaporware. Trump is painting America as a hellish dystopia, like France, but 10x worse, and suggests that voting Democratic will lead to the greatest depression in all of American history, worse than 1837, 1873, 1893, or 1929.

Trump also said Democrats will "mutilate your children." At a rally in Arizona he said: "I mean, they can do whatever they want, and they do. Your son leaves as Jimmy and comes back home in 3 days as Janet, and they don't even ask you." Gee, maybe you would have preferred Jamie or Jackie. In Kansas, he said: "the Dumocrat agenda is a plan to extinguish Western civilization. They want to open the borders." In Montana, he said that Democrats will take away your guns: "You know who would love that to happen? Some of the wild animals you have up here that like eating you. They would gain a lot of weight." In Ohio, during a rally for Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH), Trump said: "I started examining his body... I looked and I watched up and down, and I looked at his ass. Look at that jawline." Wow. With that recommendation, Husted sure has the straight-but-curious vote locked down now.

All this reeks of desperation. He is acting like a cornered animal with nowhere to go and fighting for its life. We have no doubt some voters will be scared witless by this nonsense, but these will be people who were already planning to vote Republican anyway.

And it is not going to get better before Nov. 3. The final NYT/Siena University poll was released yesterday. Trump's approval is 36%, his lowest ever in this poll, and his disapproval is 59%, with two-thirds of independents disapproving. Also, the generic House poll is now D+11, which, if true, will translate into dozens of new House seats for the Democrats. When Trump hears about this and realizes the trend is down, he is going to go bonkers. It's going to be quite a fireworks show on his ass-loving social media platform this weekend.

It is not only Trump who is throwing all the dirt he can find at the wall and hoping it will stick. Yesterday, we discussed the despicable ad Vivek Ramaswamy is running in Ohio in which Amy Acton's estranged mother, who did nothing to stop her husband from molesting Acton when she was 12, condemns Acton as a liar. Acton's brother confirmed the candidate's story, not the mother's. A grand jury apparently agreed and Acton's stepfather was indicted, ran away, and lived as a fugitive until he died in 2004. The ad has caused a furor because some people consider using the rape of a 12-year-old girl as political fodder not to be cool. Ramaswamy's response was to announce that he will spend $4 million running the ad. J.D. Vance told Republicans to stop whining about the ad. And remember, Republicans have traditionally considered a candidate's character more important than the candidate's policy positions. (V)

Three Election Raters Move Races Mostly Toward the Democrats

Three of the best known election raters are the Cook Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. All three have moved a number of races in the past 24 hours. They use polling data, of course, but also fundraising data, presidential approval ratings, and other data. And they also use their long experience to take into account qualitative factors that are hard to quantify, such as candidate quality and blunders a candidate recently made. Here is a brief rundown:

As you can see, Sabato has moved eight Republican seats that were "Toss-up" to "Lean Democratic." Also, six "Lean Democratic" seats moved to "Likely Democratic," which means they will most likely go blue unless something unexpected happens in the next 2 weeks.

All in all, the picture is increasingly positive for the Democrats. (V)

Dummymander Time?

Republicans redrew the maps in a number of states, expecting to pick up a dozen or more seats. A new analysis by Reuters shows that nine of the redrawn districts are either leaning Democratic or too close to call. That wasn't the game plan. Some of that is due to Trump's unpopularity and some of it is due to incorrect assumptions about how specific demographic groups would vote.

Things are moving rapidly. Back in June, Republicans had increased their advantage in 16 redrawn districts studied. Nine are now in doubt. The message here is that you can be too smart for your own good. Or maybe too stupid. Erin Covey of the Cook Political Report said: "There is absolutely a world where the Republicans don't flip any of the four seats they redrew in Florida." She thinks that Republicans might net +3 seats from the map exercise, but in a blue tsunami, the net effect could actually be negative for the Republicans. Jacob Rubashkin, who works for Inside Elections, said the redistricting will almost surely be a net gain for the Republicans, but maybe not a big one.

Most of the Republican gains were supposed to come from Texas and Florida. There, new maps reshaped nine districts held by Democrats. They were redrawn to be districts that Trump won from 9 to 20 points, based on the assumptions that Latinos would vote the same way in 2026 that they did in 2024. And both states have a lot of Latinos. It apparently didn't occur to the mapmakers that Latinos might react to the hundreds of thousands of Latinos being swept off the streets and deported. Who could have known?

One factor that needs to be taken into account is that because candidates running in new districts are not well known in their new districts, a large amount of money has been pumped into the new districts, and that could influence the results. Four of the six districts that have gotten the most outside Republican spending are new districts; these districts are averaging $12 million each.

In Texas, there are different problems. For example, the seat of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-TX) was redrawn as R+18, but almost all of it is new for her. She doesn't know the voters there and they don't know her. Her opponent is a Tejano music star, Bobby Pulido, who is very widely known in the district, even though he has never run for office before. In general, when districts are redrawn, it matters why it has been redrawn. If it has been redrawn to unseat a Democrat, the Republican won't be well-known but the Republican wouldn't have been well-known in the old district either. But if a district is redrawn to strengthen a Republican incumbent, one effect of doing this is saddling the incumbent up with many voters who don't know him or her, as in the case of De La Cruz. That may not always work so well.

The redistricting cuts both ways. California also drew a new map targeting five Republican-held seats. In at least two of them, it looks to be a tight race and the map may not produce the desired results. Voters hate this kind of gamesmanship. If Democrats are smart, they will try to pass a bill banning gerrymandering (e.g., by mandating truly independent redistricting commissions). If Republicans kill the bill, that becomes a campaign issue for 2028. (V)

Mike Bloomberg Has Donated $80 Million to the Democrats

Elon Musk is spending hundreds of millions of dollars to help Republicans, so Mike Bloomberg reluctantly decided he had better get into the act to balance this out a bit, although we have surely already reached the point where advertising doesn't matter much anymore (well, unless it's an offensive ad that triggers a backlash, like what's going on in Ohio). Having a voter see some ad 130 times really doesn't work much better than having the voter see the ad 60 times. In fact, it may annoy some people to the point of deciding not to support the candidate just on account of the ads.

In any event, Bloomberg jumped in to the tune of $80 million, to be spent largely on House races. He gave $24 million to the House Majority PAC, which uses it on House races as it sees fit. He also gave $24 million to a group, Everytown for Gun Safety, that supports candidates who want to tighten up gun laws. Spending late in the cycle is a hallmark of Bloomberg's giving. He always does it like that.

Much of Bloomberg's money is going to expand the field—that is, to candidates in red districts that would normally not be on the agenda due to financial limitations. The goal is to build a large Democratic majority because there is a huge difference between having 218 seats and having 230. In the former case, every member can hold the caucus as a hostage. In the latter case, no one member has that power.

Although Bloomberg is not micromanaging the spending, he does have a few specific concerns. He is a strong supporter of Israel and does not want to spend money on DSA candidates because the DSA is strongly pro-Palestinian and anti-Israel. However, all the DSA candidates are in such deep blue districts that they need not spend a penny nickel on the race. All they have to do to win is make sure they don't die before Election Day.

The only Senate candidate Bloomberg has donated to is James Talarico. He gave the Texan's campaign $2.5 million. (V)

Could 2026 Be a Harbinger?

Political eras are usually defined by presidential elections. Think 1876 (end of Reconstruction and civil rights, start of a mostly Republican era with Hayes, Garfield, Arthur, B. Harrison, T. Roosevelt, Taft); 1932 (FDR and Democratic dominance for 20 years) and 1980 (Ronald Reagan and the rise of conservative Republicans). Nevertheless, midterms often set the stage for what is to come and give a big hint which way the wind is blowing. In 2010, for example, the Republicans flipped six Senate seats, 63 House seats, and six governorships. Over the next 16 years, despite Barack Obama's reelection, the Republicans controlled the House for 12 years and the Senate for 10. Also, the Tea Party movement of 2010 was a harbinger for MAGA and Trump 6 years later.

A disastrous midterm for the Republicans (not just a mediocre one), could signal the end of MAGA and the Trump era. Voters would see it didn't deliver much of value to them. It also could presage a strong Democratic victory for the White House in 2028. Weak incumbent presidents often weigh their party down, as in 1932 (Herbert Hoover), 1980 (Jimmy Carter) and 1992 (George H.W. Bush).

Also, if the Democrats capture the House and Senate this year, they are likely to hold them in 2028, especially if a Democrat is elected president with a weak, very unpopular Republican in the White House. That would mean a Democratic trifecta in 2028 and possibly a major shift in the direction of the government.

This year may be important in another respect. It could be the last hurrah for Boomer presidents in the Clinton-Bush-Obama-Trump-Biden-Trump era (and, yes, we know Biden is not technically a Boomer). We are already seeing signs this year of younger candidates replacing older candidates. That trickle is likely to be a torrent in 2028, starting at the top. Most of the likely presidential candidates are much, much younger than Biden and Trump. J.D. Vance is 42. Marco Rubio is 55. On the Democratic side, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is 37, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is 39, Pete Buttigieg is 44, Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) is 46, Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) is 48, Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD) is 48, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) is 50, Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) is 53, Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) is 57 and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) is an elderly 59. Their formative experiences are very different from the Boomers. (V)

Some Data on North Carolina Early Voting

Some interesting demographic data is available about the early voters in North Carolina. For example, so far 405,000 Democrats, 317,000 independents and 201,000 Republicans have voted. 496,000 women, 393,000 men, and 45,000 undesignateds (their term) have voted. About 67% of the early voters are white and 23% are Black. The rest are Asian, Native American, mixed or unspecified. The overwhelming majority of the early votes (95%) were in person. But the graph that we found most interesting was the age distribution, shown below:

Age distribution of early NC voters

The top ages are 69-73. We find this a bit surprising. Yes, these seniors are probably retired and have time to vote (in person) early. Are the younger voters, who have less free time, all going to vote on Election Day, with its long lines? Maybe they will vote by mail, although given the early voting statistics, few have done so already. Thanks to reader H.W. in Wake County, NC for the heads-up. (V)

Dems on House Oversight Committee Are Making Their Lists and Checking Them Twice

Finally we get to Rep. Robert J. Garcia (D-CA), the chap referred to above. Here's his picture; you will probably see a great deal of him starting Jan. 3, 2027:

Rep. Robert Garcia

What's the deal with Garcia, a former mayor of Long Beach, CA, and now a Democratic congressman from Long Beach? He is the ranking member of the House Oversight Committee and is slated to become chair if the Democrats take the House. The Oversight Committee has very broad powers to investigate anyone and anything the chair wants to investigate and has subpoena power to encourage recalcitrant witnesses to show up.

Garcia is champing at the bit and can't wait to start investigating. Count on him starting on Jan. 3, 2027, if he gets the gavel, which is likely. When a reporter asked him what he would investigate, he said: "There's so much to look at." Here are the five initial areas he is thinking about starting with (but he could add more later, of course):

Garcia, Subramanyam, Khanna and some others are probably not going to get a lot of sleep the next couple of years. The Oversight Committee will not be the only game in town. Many of the other committees will investigate areas within their specific jurisdictions. It could be a three-ring circus. Actually the House has 20 standing committees, so it could be a 20-ring circus. For example, the House Financial Services Committee and Ways and Means Committee are gearing up to investigate Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent nine ways to Sunday, and there are others. But Oversight and Garcia will lead the way. (V)

Today's Senate Polls

Angie Nixon is doing well (well, better) in today's poll, but this is probably an outlier as other polls show her way behind. Texas is going to be very close, maybe the closest of the states whose Senate seat is in play. Maybe Elon Musk's $150 million is having an effect.

State Democrat D % Republican R % Start End Pollster
Florida Angie Nixon 45% Ashley Moody* 49% Oct 12 Oct 19 U. of North Florida
Georgia Jon Ossoff* 48% Mike Collins 40% Oct 07 Oct 15 Atlanta Journal
Illinois Juliana Stratton 58% Don Tracy 41% Sep 26 Oct 20 Activote
Michigan Abdul El-Sayed 50% Mike Rogers 48% Oct 15 Oct 18 Marist Coll.
Ohio Sherrod Brown 52% Jon Husted* 47% Oct 15 Oct 19 Beacon + Shaw
Texas James Talarico 49% Ken Paxton 49% Oct 15 Oct 19 Beacon + Shaw

* Denotes incumbent


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