Breaking news: A couple of minutes after we posted today, Judge Scott McAfee ruled that Fulton County D.A. Fani Willis can stay on the case if she fires her ex-boyfriend as lead prosecutor. More tomorrow.

Schumer: Netanyahu Should Go

Normally, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is a fairly unassuming guy who does most of his talking when the cameras are off. Not yesterday, though. Nope, yesterday he stood on the floor of the Senate and delivered a fiery (by his standards) address in which he called for an end to Benjamin Netanyahu's leadership of Israel.

Now, note that "by his standards" qualifier in the previous paragraph. Most of the reporting on Schumer's speech (and everybody had it as the lead story yesterday) gives the impression that it was very, very aggressive, along the lines of Ronald Reagan's "Tear down this wall." That is not the case. Schumer is still a cautious fellow, and what he actually said was that new elections should be held "once the war starts to wind down." The Majority Leader also said that Mahmoud Abbas, leader of the Palestinian Authority, needs to be shown the door, although this is being mentioned very rarely.

Still, cautious or not, Schumer said that Netanyahu is no longer a fit for Israel, and the Israeli people need to be given an opportunity to choose someone to lead them into their next era, at risk of that nation becoming a "pariah." That is a pretty bold statement, particularly coming from a guy who is the highest-ranking Jew in American political history, and who has previously been a staunch defender of Israel. Certainly, Haaretz thinks so, and we tend to trust their assessments of these things (Note, once again: soft paywall).

The upshot is that the Netanyahu administration's relationship with the U.S. is fraying badly, to the point that even strongly pro-Israel Democrats like Schumer and Joe Biden are being openly critical. This may well force Netanyahu's hand when it comes to a ceasefire, or to toning down his plans for an offensive in Rafah.

What it is certainly doing is giving the leaders of the Democratic Party much more room to maneuver, such that they can do things like cut off arms shipments to Israel and/or they can be much more aggressive when it comes to helping the civilian populace of Gaza. And those are the things that are going to be necessary if Biden wants to have a chance at winning back a bunch of those "uncommitted" voters in Minnesota and Michigan. (Z)

Schumer Has a Candidate for West Virginia Senate Race: Guess Who?

As long as we are on the subject of Chuck Schumer, he is working overtime to try to preserve his razor-thin majority in the Senate. And to that end, he's trying to recruit a candidate to run in West Virginia who just might be able to win there. The readers of this site have undoubtedly heard of Schumer's pick, as it is... Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV).

It is too late for Manchin to run in the state's Democratic primary, which is scheduled for May 14. So, the Democratic nominee will either be perennial candidate and even more perennial sleazeball Don Blankenship, Wheeling mayor Glenn Elliott or Marine Corps veteran Zach Shrewsbury. The first of those has more baggage than Samsonite and the other two are unknowns, while Shrewsbury is also way too liberal for West Virginia. So, it's not like the West Virginia Democratic Party is going to put up a world-beater.

If Manchin was to run, he would have to enter the race as an independent, and the deadline for doing that is August 1. We do not have our finger on the pulse of West Virginia politics to know if running as an independent would somehow make Manchin more electable than running as a Democrat. What we do know is that a 3-month campaign undoubtedly sounds a lot better to a man in his 70s than does a 9-month campaign. Manchin's response to Schumer's proposal was: "I don't anticipate running, [but] I don't know if anything in Washington, DC, is 100%." That is somewhat less than the Full Sherman, and roughly 4 months is a lot of time for Manchin to decide, and to put out feelers to see if he would be viable.

Of course, West Virginia is not the only state where the Democrats are doing whatever they can to try to hold the majority. In Ohio, there's some good old-fashioned ratfu**ing going on. As we noted yesterday, the Ohio GOP primary is down to three people: Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who isn't going to win, Trumpy car dealer Bernie Moreno, who's pretty nutty, and not-so-Trumpy baseball owner Matt Dolan, who is the most electable of the three.

According to polls, Moreno and Dolan are neck-and-neck for the nomination. Democrats would much prefer that Moreno come out ahead when Ohioans vote on Tuesday. So, to that end, the Democrats' Senate Majority PAC is spending nearly $3 million on pro-Moreno advertising. Because Democrats don't want Ohio Republicans to get wind of what is going on, however, the Senate Majority PAC has created, in effect, a shell PAC called Duty and Country. We would have gone with Duty and Country and Jesus, just to really sell it, but what do we know.

In short, Schumer is very much willing to roll up his sleeves and play hardball. Keep that in mind the next time you see one of those pieces, probably in The New York Times, about how the Democrats don't understand that their Senate majority is in danger, and/or they don't seem to care. (Z)

Trump to Seniors: Sorry!

Earlier this week, during an interview on CNBC, Donald Trump said he was open to cutting Social Security. This is not something that any American politician, much less one running for president, should ever say. It is like saying you are open to making it legal to kick puppies.

So, there was blowback, and lots of it. This was entirely predictable, based on both old and new political history. For example, Trump might have taken note of what happened to Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) a couple of years ago when HE hinted at the mere possibility of taking a hatchet to Social Security. Since then, Scott has been forced to hide in the shadows, and there's a chance he might even lose his U.S. Senate seat this year.

Anyhow, Trump does not actually admit errors or faults, and he certainly doesn't apologize. Nonetheless, he knows he blew it. So, the former president did an interview with Breitbart yesterday in which he emphasized that he would never, ever cut Social Security. His exact words: "I will never do anything that will jeopardize or hurt Social Security or Medicare. We'll have to do it elsewhere. But we're not going to do anything to hurt them."

Despite Trump's "apology," we are left with two questions. First, how could he make such a stupid mistake in the first place? He's a veteran politician at this point, and while everyone misspeaks on occasion, "Thou shalt not threaten Social Security and Medicare" is the First Commandment of American politics. He really might be slipping, mentally.

The second question is: Why Breitbart? That site is in serious decline, with readership only a fraction of what it was back in 2016, or even 2020. If Trump wants to reach "his people," the correct thing to do is to get on Sean Hannity's show and backtrack there. This is a pretty important mess that needs to be cleaned up, and the cleaning should be as thorough as is possible. Maybe the former president really is on the outs with Fox, and is determined to give the important stories to their competitors. Although, even then, why not OAN or Newsmax? Very strange. (Z)

Trump Legal News: What Next?

Donald Trump's various criminal cases have each served up a bunch of curveballs. Yesterday, there were two more of them, albeit small-to-medium curveballs, rather than the giant-sized ones that the Supreme Court likes to toss.

First up, in New York, Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg advised Judge Juan Merchan that he (Bragg) is open to a 30-day delay in Trump's hush-money trial. At issue is a cache of documents that federal prosecutors very recently turned over to the DA, and that he then turned over to Trump's defense team. Trump's attorneys asked for the case to be dismissed on this basis (naturally) or, failing that, for a 90-day postponement. So, Bragg's 30 day proposal is, effectively, a counteroffer. There is no indication as to whether Merchan will delay 30 days, 90 days, some amount of days in between those two, or zero days. Until the Judge says differently, the case is scheduled to go to trial in 10 days.

The second curveball came from Florida, where Judge Aileen Cannon actually made a ruling that is sort of adverse to Trump's interests. Essentially, since Team Trump thinks Cannon is in the bag for them, they're making extra-wild legal arguments to try to score a Get Out of Jail Free card. One of those arguments is that the Espionage Act, under which Trump is charged, should be struck down as unconstitutional because it is too vague. Trump's lawyers made that argument on Wednesday, and Cannon rejected it yesterday, at least temporarily, which is warp speed for her.

In court yesterday, with Trump himself looking on, his counsel tried a new argument, namely that the Presidential Records Act entitles him to declare any and all records from his administration as his own personal property. Ipso facto, what he was holding at Mar-a-Lago did not belong to the government, it belonged to him. According to people in the courtroom, Cannon did not seem amenable to this argument. So, maybe she'll reject that one today.

With all of this said, Cannon did not put an end to the first argument, anymore than Judge Scott McAfee permanently killed the half-dozen counts in the Georgia case earlier this week. What she really did is deny the motion without prejudice, calling it "premature." You can read the order here, if you wish; it's only two pages. So, this could well come up again in the future.

In other words, we still believe Cannon is not fair and impartial, and that she leans strongly in Trump's direction. That said, there's only so far she can bend, at risk of having the case taken away from her and/or at risk of having sanctions imposed on her. And in making their arguments, Team Trump is effectively conceding the core elements of the government's case (i.e., Trump definitely had the documents in his possession, and definitely knew what they were). This does not seem the wisest approach to us, but we guess desperate times call for desperate measures, especially when you think the judge is in your pocket. (Z)

Venue Shopping: Judicial Conference Ends Kacsmaryk's Monopoly

Continuing on with matters legal, the Judicial Conference of the United States announced a pretty important decision earlier this week. Henceforth, when federal cases involving "state or federal laws, rules, regulations, policies, or executive branch orders" are filed, they will be assigned at random to any judge in the district where the case was filed. Previously, they were assigned to any judge in the division where the case was filed. Districts have anywhere from 10 to 20 judges, while divisions sometimes have just one or two. Thus, under the old policy, it was much easier to steer a case to a judge deemed to be friendly to the plaintiffs.

"Judge shopping," as it is known, is a trick used by both Democrats and Republicans. That said, the nature of the system is such that it's disproportionately a Republican technique. The Senate's blue-slip system produces, more often than not, judges that "match" their division politically. Since sparsely populated rural areas are more likely to be red, one-judge (or two-judge) divisions are more likely to have a single Republican judge (or two Republican judges) sitting.

The poster boy for judge shopping is Matthew Kacsmaryk, who is: (1) the only judge sitting in the Amarillo division of the United States District Court for the Northern District of Texas, (2) very right-wing and (3) quite willing to issue orders that not only cover his division/district, but that apply to the whole country. Kacsmaryk is the one who unilaterally tried to halt the use of mifepristone (although the decision was stayed), one of two drugs used in concert for medication abortions and other medical treatments.

The runner-up poster boy, meanwhile, is Drew Tipton, who is: (1) the only judge sitting in the Corpus Christi division of the United States District Court for the Southern District of Texas, (2) also very right-wing and (3) also willing to issue orders that apply to the whole country. Tipton is particularly known for striking down Joe Biden's executive orders (although the rulings are often reversed on appeal).

Texas AG Ken Paxton, who knows how to work the system, has filed 28 lawsuits against the Biden administration since 2021. Of those 28, a staggering 18 were filed either in Kacsmaryk's division or in Tipton's. Now, that strategy will be much less effective. Paxton (and other partisan actors) will be able to select a district/circuit with a well-known political lean (Kacsmaryk and Tipton are both part of the famously conservative Fifth Circuit, for example), but picking the perfect judge isn't going to be doable in these cases anymore. (Z)

Looking Forward to 2024, Part VI: Reader Predictions, Economy and Finance Edition

We did not get to run predictions yesterday, but we have some today. Here is the list of the ones we've already run:

• Looking Forward to 2024, Part I: Pundit Predictions
• Looking Forward to 2024, Part II: Our Predictions
• Looking Forward to 2024, Part III: Reader Predictions, Joe Biden Edition
• Looking Forward to 2024, Part IV: Reader Predictions, Donald Trump Edition
• Looking Forward to 2024, Part V: Reader Predictions, Elections Edition

And now, 10 reader predictions about the economy and/or finance:

1. S.H. in Broken Arrow, OK: Gas prices near election day will be $2.40/gal due to multiple Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases. (Potential Bonus Points: 70)
   
   
2. C.P. in Malden, MA: The S&P 500 and NASDAQ will both be at least 7% higher on December 31, 2024, than they were on January 1, 2024. (Potential Bonus Points: 34)
   
   
3. D.C. in Delray Beach, FL: The NASDAQ will be at or near 17,047 on December 31, 2024 (it is currently at 16,128). (Potential Bonus Points: 35)
   
   
4. M.M. in Alexandria, MN: At some point in 2024, the SPX will have dropped to at least 1,000 points below its 2023 closing price. And, the price of gold will rise to $2,500 per ounce. (Potential Bonus Points: 67)
   
   
5. The Great Bombini in Cincinnati, OH: The Great Bombini wanted to look at a 6-month time span, but there is so much coming down the pike that it was impossible to see that far. Therefore, I read 3 months out. Much discord on the horizon. Infighting. Looks like we will have a short government shutdown that will cause the economy to hit a speed bump. Nobody is happy and no one will get what they want out of this stunt, either. (Potential Bonus Points: 59)
   
   
6. D.G. in Atlanta, GA: Inflation will cool to 2.5% or less by end of 2024. (Potential Bonus Points: 28)
   
   
7. C.R. in St Louis, MO: The economy will spring forward again with Fed rate reductions in spring. New housing manufacturing will increase, mortgage rates will come down, and equity markets will soar, which will make everyone's 401k look more comfortable. A nice tailwind for incumbents. (Potential Bonus Points: 38)
   
   
8. A.D. in Charleston, WV: Fractures in the economy will start to expand, as the oft-ignored rental market continues to cobble disposable income. The economy will become the noose around Joe Biden's neck, greatly growing the appeal of Donald Trump. (Potential Bonus Points: 72)
   
   
9. A.T. in Elkton, MD: The economy will continue to slowly recover and I think Joe Biden will be able to make that a central plank in re-electing him. (Potential Bonus Points: 32)
   
   
10. P.H. in Mayo, FL: The economy will continue to grow at an average pace of 3% to 3.5% during 2024. (Potential Bonus Points: 32)

If the readers pull a sweep here, then they'll earn 1,000 points for 10 correct predictions, along with 467 bonus points for degree of difficulty. Of course, once again, a sweep is not possible because some of the predictions run contrary to each other.

The next set of predictions will be the set we intended to run yesterday, about Congress. (Z)

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Hair of the Dog

We did not have a headline theme last week, because of the State of the Union Address, so this is from two weeks ago. Answer, courtesy of reader M.H. in Ottawa, ON, Canada:

The theme this week: Every headline contains a word that forms another word with the suffix "-ball".

• "Shutdown?: Nope, Government Will Kick the Can Down the Road (Again)": kickball (There's also downball, an Australian schoolyard game, and CanBall, a board game made in Saskatoon, but given your aversion to us 'Nades, I'm guessing that wasn't your intent.)
• "IVF Bill: Well, That Was Fast": fastball (Though WellBall is a manufacturer of stainless steel ball valves...)
• "State of the Union: Britt Will Serve up This Year's Red Meat": meatball (And Serveball is a manufacturer of throwable cameras.)
• "Un-Retirement: Once Your Foot Is in the Door...": football
• "News From Across the Pond: Gaza War Is Wrecking British Politics": wrecking ball (Warball is a gym game, though.)
• " I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Forged in Fire": fireball
• "This Week in Schadenfreude: A Fool and Their Money?": Moneyball
• "This Week in Freudenfreude: Strong Medicine": medicine ball

You're exactly right, M.H.; we Americans have no use for games created by Canadians. Well, unless it's basketball. Or hockey. Or Trivial Pursuit. Or Pictionary. Wait a minute...

And though it was not our intent, we also have to give credit for this solution from P.A. in Allentown, PA:

Answer: Movies with a single word for the title

• "Shutdown?: Nope, Government Will Kick the Can Down the Road (Again)": Nope (2022)
• "IVF Bill: Well, That Was Fast": Well (2016)
• "State of the Union: Britt Will Serve up This Year's Red Meat": Meat (2016)
• "Un-Retirement: Once Your Foot Is in the Door...": Foot (2021)
• "News From Across the Pond: Gaza War Is Wrecking British Politics": Politics (1931)
• " I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Forged in Fire": Forged (2010)
• "This Week in Schadenfreude: A Fool and Their Money?": Money (2016)
• "This Week in Freudenfreude: Strong Medicine": Medicine (2017)

Very impressive!

Here are the first 25 readers to send in a correct solution:

1. E.M. in Jersey City, NJ
2. J.N. in Zionsville, IN
3. B.M. in Chico, CA
4. D.L. in Springfield, IL
5. D.D. in Carversville, PA
6. I.H. in Washington, DC
7. M.J.S. in Cheshire, CT
8. P.A. in Allentown
9. S.K. in Drexel Hill, PA
10. D.E. in High Springs, FL
11. M.D. in Rochester, NY
12. M.H. in Ottawa
13. L.W. in Los Angeles, CA
14. G.O. in New York City, NY
15. D.F. in Vancouver, BC, Canada
16. K.P. in Tampa, FL
17. H.E. in Shoreline, WA
18. P.W. in Tulalip, WA
19. F.Y. in Ann Arbor, MI
20. T.P. in Woodland Hills, CA
21. B.U. in St. Louis, MO
22. D.W.B. in Waynesville, NC
23. D.M. in Oakland, CA
24. T.C. in Phoenix AZ
25. E.P. in Long Beach, CA

D.D. in Carversville notes that "I base this on the fact that I had to knuckle down, dodge other possible answers, and find all eight possible responses. Like butter!" For our part, we must admit that we tried mightily to find a way to write a headline with "Lucille" in it, but couldn't make it work. Maybe if B.B. King had died that week.

As to this week's theme, it requires some words to the right of the colon, but not all of them. It would be in the Trivial Pursuit category Sports and Leisure. And for a hint, we'll note that just because there's no Risk doesn't mean there's no reward. If you have a guess, then send it to comments@electoral-vote.com, with subject line "March 15 Headlines." (Z)

This Week in Schadenfreude: Navarro Is Headed to the Crowbar Hotel

Donald Trump might be able to achieve endless delays in his various criminal matters, but many of his underlings are not so lucky. Maybe they don't have as many lawyers, or as much money to spend on shenanigans. Maybe they were more reckless than he was, and so left themselves more clearly exposed. Maybe their crimes were simpler, and lent themselves to very little legal black magick. Or maybe they didn't appoint the judge hearing their case to the bench, and so they don't have a chit to call in.

Whatever the explanation is, another Trump lackey is headed to the hoosegow, such that he will be a guest of Uncle Sam by the time we publish next week's Schadenfreude. That would be Trump adviser Peter Navarro, who failed to comply with a Congressional subpoena, and was sentenced to 4 months in prison, with a reporting date of no later than March 19.

Navarro has argued that he was covered by executive privilege, and that his sentence should be put on hold until he is able to fully explore that argument through the appeals process. This week, a three-judge panel from the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals rejected that assertion in no uncertain terms. In their unsigned, unanimous order, the judges declare:

Appellant has not shown that his appeal presents substantial questions of law or fact likely to result in reversal, a new trial, a sentence that does not include a term of imprisonment, or a reduced sentence of imprisonment that is less than the amount of time already served plus the expected duration of the appeal process.

In other words: "Your case may still be under appeal, Pete, but we're here to tell you that your appeal is most certainly going to fail, so off to prison you go."

Obviously, Navarro was just trying to buy 6 months or so, in the hopes of a Trump reelection, and the resulting insta-pardon. But that's not going to happen, and instead he'll spend his spring (and part of his summer) doing whatever minimum security federal prisoners do all day. Probably macramé, or making lanyards, or crafting bird houses out of popsicle sticks, or something like that. (Z)

This Week in Freudenfreude: "My Life Is Incredible"

This week's Freudenfreude is about a fellow named Paul Alexander, whose story makes approximately 99.9% of us feel like lazy schlubs.

Alexander, whom you may know better under his online handle "Polio Paul," contracted polio in 1952 at the age of 6. It was a particularly severe case, leaving him mostly paralyzed from the neck down, and unable to breathe on his own. So, he was compelled to take up residence in an iron lung.

Despite the disability, Alexander was determined to live a full life, no matter how difficult it might be. To start, he mastered techniques that, while difficult, allowed him to breathe on his own for short periods of time. It took him a year to get to the point that he could breathe for 3 minutes on his own, an accomplishment for which he was rewarded with a dog. Eventually, he was able to spend multiple hours outside the iron lung.

Once he reached the appropriate age, Alexander was able to attend and graduate high school (as salutatorian), and then attend and graduate college, and THEN attend and graduate law school. He eventually worked for 30 years as a lawyer, often appearing in court. He always wore a three-piece suit, and used a special wheelchair that held his body in place.

Polio Paul was also an author. Holding a pen in his mouth, and using a special computer setup, he was not only able to write the legal documents required in his professional life, he also authored an autobiography, entitled Three Minutes for a Dog: My Life in an Iron Lung (2020). Following publication of the book, he started a TikTok account where he answered people's questions about polio, while reminding them not to feel sorry for him. "My life is incredible," he declared. Over time, he gained more than 300,000 followers.

Earlier this week, Paul Alexander passed away at the age of 78, having lived 72 of his years dependent on his iron lung. Guinness World Records certified that as the longest period of time a human has done that (though Alexander may be caught by the only known remaining case of an American living in an iron lung; that's Martha Lillard, who was first diagnosed with polio in 1953).

So, what is the political angle here? Well, although Paul Alexander was happy with his life, he was nonetheless an outspoken advocate for polio vaccines in particular and for vaccination in general, as he did not want others to be inflicted with dangerous diseases needlessly. This stands in marked contrast to a selfish and reckless man who is currently polling third in the presidential race, and the selfish and reckless meathead quarterback who may soon be his vice-presidential running mate. In fact, that presidential candidate has claimed that polio vaccines killed more people than they helped, because they caused 98 million cases of cancer. One wonders if this self-appointed medical expert would have had the balls to say such things to Paul Alexander's face.

And, with that rather strongly worded sentence out of the way, have a good weekend, all! (Z)

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