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News from the Votemaster

Romney Expected to Win Illinois Primary Today     Permalink

So far, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum have split the vote in the Midwest, with Santorum taking Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, and Missouri, while Romney won in Michigan and Ohio. Both of them get another chance today when Illinois votes. All recent polls are pointing at a substantial Romney victory this time, far more than he achieved in Michigan and Ohio. Here are the data.

Pollster Romney Santorum Gingrich Paul
ARG 44% 30% 13% 8%
PPP 45% 30% 12% 10%
Rasmussen 41% 32% 14% 7%
WeAskAmerica 37% 31% 14% 8%
WGN/Tribune 35% 31% 12% 7%

If Romney wins Illinois, it will be hard to imagine his rivals preventing his nomination, although the battle might still continue for a few weeks. If the polls are all wrong and Santorum wins, all bets are off and anything could happen. A lot depends on turnout. Chicago and its suburbs will certainly go for Romney and downstate will go for Santorum. If turnout is especially heavy in either part of the state, it will have a big impact.

Republicans to Propose Major Tax Reform Today     Permalink

House Budget Committee chairman, Paul Ryan, is set to unveil a proposed new tax code today that is certain to become a key issue--maybe the key issue--in the general election. It would reduce the current number of tax brackets from six to two, one at 10% and one at 25%, eliminate the alternative minimum tax, and reduce corporate rates. If enacted, it would be a godsend to millionaires, reducing their top marginal rate from 35% to 25%. At the same time, Ryan wants to eliminate Medicare in the sense that it pays doctor and hospital bills and turn it into a scheme in which the government gives each senior a voucher and tells him or her to use it to buy private insurance. However, it does nothing to prevent insurance companies from refusing to insure sick people and also nothing to prevent the companies from charging far more than the amount of the voucher.

Needless to say, the Democrats wildly oppose all of this and will campaign mightily against it. The proposal puts Romney in a bit of an awkward position, since he has to support his party's proposal. But the sight of a person who made $21 million last year campaigning on a platform of big tax cuts for the rich to be paid for by reducing the Medicare budget is not going to be pretty. Nevertheless, if this bill becomes topic A during the election, we may have an election that, for a change, is not about mudslinging, but about an idea--what is the role of the federal government in America?

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Previous headlines

Mar19 Romney Wins Puerto Rico
Mar18 No Results from the Raucous Caucus
Mar18 Puerto Rico in the Spotlight Today
Mar11 Santorum Wins Kansas Caucus
Mar10 Santorum Favorite to Win Kansas Caucus Today
Mar10 Angus King Endorses Obama
Mar07 Romney wins Ohio and five other states, Santorum wins three states
Mar06 Today is Super Tuesday
Mar06 Independent Throws Maine Senate Race into Turmoil
Mar04 Romney Wins Washington, Paul Second (Maybe)
Mar03 Washington State Holds Caucuses Today
Mar03 Maine Senate Field Taking Shape
Feb29 Romney Barely Wins Michigan
Feb29 Olympia Snow Announces Her Retirement
Feb28 Michigan Too Close to Call
Feb28 Kerrey May Run for the Senate in Nebraska
Feb23 Romney Attacks, Santorum Defends, Nothing Much Changes
Feb23 Of Vaginas and Veeps
Feb21 Too Late for a White Knight
Feb21 Another Republican Debate Tomorrow
Feb17 Santorum Leading Romney in Michigan
Feb12 Romney Wins the CPAC Straw Poll
Feb12 Romney Edges Out Paul by 194 Votes in Maine
Feb12 Santorum Leading in Michigan and Nationwide
Feb08 Santorum Wins Big in Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado
Feb05 Romney Wins Nevada Caucuses
Feb05 Republican Primary and Caucus Schedule
Feb04 Romney Expected to Win Big at Nevada Caucuses Today
Feb04 Economy is Improving
Feb01 Romney Wins Decisively in Florida
Jan31 Romney Set to Win Big in Florida
Jan31 Santorum Faces Easy Choice Tomorrow
Jan31 Prediction: Florida Will Win Today
Jan27 Romney Takes Off the Gloves in Final Florida Debate
Jan27 Romney Failed to List Foreign Investments on Legal Form
Jan25 Obama Lays Groundwork for a Populist Campaign in State-of-the-Union Speech
Jan24 Romney Releases 2010 Tax Return
Jan24 Role Reversal in the Debate: Romney Attacks, Gingrich Plays Defense
Jan24 Fred Thompson Endorses Newt Gingrich
Jan22 Gingrich Crushes Romney in South Carolina