Obama 305
image description
Ties 19
Romney 214
image description
Dem 51
image description
Ties 2
GOP 47
image description
  • Strongly Dem (230)
  • Likely Dem (14)
  • Barely Dem (61)
  • Exactly tied (19)
  • Barely GOP (33)
  • Likely GOP (51)
  • Strongly GOP (130)
270 Electoral votes needed to win Map algorithm explained
New polls: CT PA
Dem pickups: MO
GOP pickups: IN NC OH
PW logo Heitkamp Holds Small Lead in North Dakota Military Suicides Surge
Obama Loses Ground Nationally and in Swing States The Speaking Styles of the Candidates
Romney Grabs Lead in Michigan Dead Heat in Colorado

News from the Votemaster

What Could Romney Learn from Walker?

While Scott Walker's win over Tom Barrett in Wisconsin is probably not a good predictor of whether Mitt Romney can win the state in November, Dan Balz of the Washington Post wrote a column about what Romney can learn from Walker's victory. First, it is all about money. Walker outspent his opponent 7 to 1. Romney and his allied superPACs are not going to be able to outspend President Obama by that ratio, but the more they can raise and spend, the better.

Second, hard-right positions are not necessarily fatal. With Romney, one gets the feeling that not only is he not sure of what he believes, but he is also not sure of what image he wants to project. Does he want to appear as a "severe conservative"? Does he want to appear as a moderate who was forced by the base into right-wing positions he doesn't believe in? Who knows? Walker had no such problems.

Third is conviction. Walker took positions he knew were unpopular in some quarters but never wavered. To many voters, a backbone is considered a useful body part in a politician.

On the other hand, you can't compare a recall race in one state to a national presidential election only so far. Exit polls in Wisconsin show that 60% of the voters there feel that a recall election is appropriate only when the official being recalled has been accused of corruption or malfeasance. If most of the voters think that recalling an honest governor whose policies they don't happen to like is a bad idea in principle, then there is probably no lesson here for Romney.

Democrats Start the Blame Game over Wisconsin Loss

Generally when a party loses a high-profile election, the loss is followed by a round of public recriminations, with various factions blaming other ones for the defeat. Sure enough, the Democrats have started the process already. Labor leaders are blaming national Democrats (and by implication President Obama) for not helping them at all. In response, the DNC said that getting involved in state recalls is pretty far from its core business of winning national elections and besides, it did provide some resources. What probably bothers many in the labor movement is that Obama's involvement in the entire process consisted of a single tweet saying he supported Barrett. No doubt Obama felt that Barrett was going to lose and didn't want to turn the recall election into a referendum on himself. In that respect, he made the right decision. It will be hard to spin Barrett's defeat into a defeat for Obama since he never went to the state, didn't make any ads for Barrett, and kept as much distance from the whole recall event as he could.

Might Romney Choose Walker as Veep?

Given that Romney has yet to convince conservatives that he is one of them, he could probably eliminate all doubts in an instant by choosing Scott Walker, the right's new hero, as his running mate. Speculation about that possibility is already rampant. However, insiders think that the possibility is unlikely for two reasons. First, only two years ago Walker was a County Executive, not a good choice for a presidential candidate who wants to claim that experience is important. Second, and perhaps more important, is that Walker--especially now--is an extremely divisive politician and would probably overshadow Romney himself. If there is any lesson from 2008, it is don't pick a lightning rod as running mate as he or she will remove the focus from the candidate himself.

Today's Presidential Polls

State Obama Romney   Start End Pollster
Connecticut 50% 38%   May 29 Jun 03 Quinnipiac U.
Pennsylvania 48% 36%   May 29 Jun 04 Franklin+Marshall Coll.

Today's Senate Polls

State Democrat D % Republican R % I I % Start End Pollster
Virginia Tim Kaine 44% George Allen 43%     May 30 Jun 04 Quinnipiac U.

Email a link to a friend or share:

---The Votemaster

Previous Headlines

Jun06 Martin Heinrich Will Face Heather Wilson in New Mexico
Jun06 Romney Sweeps the Primaries
Jun06 Walker Makes History: Survives Recall Attempt
Jun06 Democrats Appear to Have Won the Wisconsin State Senate
Jun06 California Runs a Jungle Primary
Jun06 Clinton Defeats Obama
Jun05 Wisconsin Recall Election Today
Jun05 Five Primaries Today
Jun05 Today's Presidential Polls
Jun04 Obama's Strategy Revisited
Jun04 Dept. of Justice Tells Florida to Stop Purging the Voter Rolls
Jun03 Is Romney's Mormon Religion a Campaign Issue?
Jun03 Ten Potential Game Changers that Could Happen Before the Election
Jun03 It's Obama vs. Clinton in New Jersey
Jun03 Is Romney's Mormon Religion a Campaign Issue?
Jun03 Ten Potential Game Changers that Could Happen Before the Election
Jun03 It's Obama vs. Clinton in New Jersey
Jun03 Today's Senate Polls
Jun02 Dismal Jobs Report for May
Jun02 Tipping-Point Table Revisited
Jun02 Presidential Polls
Jun02 Senate Polls
Jun01 New Table Available Showing Tipping Point States
Jun01 Ideas for Other Pages Are Welcome
Jun01 Presidential Polls
Jun01 Senate Polls
May31 McConnell Lists Top Senate Races
May31 Globalization and Politics
May31 Cell-Phone-Only Voters are Very Different
May31 Clear Your Cache!
May31 Correction on Natural-Born Citizens
May31 Presidential Polls
May31 Senate Polls
May30 Romney's the One
May30 Runoff Required in Texas Senatorial Primary
May30 Today's Polls
May30 Relaunch of This Site Yesterday
May29 App for iPhone and iPad Available
May29 New Design Launched Today
May29 Texas Primary Is Today
May23 Romney Wins Kentucky and Arkansas Primaries
May23 Obama Also Has Trouble Unifying His Party
May23 Opposition to Same-Sex Marriage Collapses
May23 Thanks to All the Beta Testers
May22 Arkansas and Kentucky Hold Primaries Today
May22 Obama and Cory Booker Continue to Squabble
May22 Hawaii Pushing Back on the Arizona Secretary of State's Request for Obama's Birth Certificate
May22 A Few Good Testers Needed for the New Website
May16 Fischer Upsets Bruning in Nebraska Senatorial Primary
May16 Romney, now unopposed, Wins Oregon and Nebraska Primaries