Obama 273
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Ties 35
Romney 230
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Dem 51
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Ties 2
GOP 47
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  • Strongly Dem (214)
  • Likely Dem (14)
  • Barely Dem (45)
  • Exactly tied (35)
  • Barely GOP (49)
  • Likely GOP (51)
  • Strongly GOP (130)
270 Electoral votes needed to win Map algorithm explained
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Dem pickups: MO
GOP pickups: IN MI NC OH
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News from the Votemaster

Clinton Didn't Say What He Meant to Say

Bill Clinton is still immensely popular, but he is a bit of a loose cannon. He tends to say whatever pops into his head. Staying on message is not one of his strengths. So he was forced to apologize for not sayng what he meant to say, whatever that was.

In reality, it doesn't matter precisely what he says. Very few people besides industrial-strength political junkies parse every word emanating from the mouth of any politician, certain not any one on the campaign trail. These minifrenzies, which inside-the-beltway reporters so dearly love to talk about, don't means beans back in Peoria.

Romney Outraises Obama in May

Mitt Romney raised $77 million in May, compared to Obama's $60 million. It is clearly going to be a very, very expensive race. On the other hand, fundraising is somewhat less important in a presidential general election that in a primary or in a congressional race. Many voters just vote for the guy with the (D) or the (R) after his name, no matter how many TV commercials they see. In a primary, advertising matters more because all the candidates have the same label (except in jungle primaries, like the one California held this week). In congressional races, the candidates are often not well known, so if a candidate can define himself or his opponent through ads, it can matter.

Today's Presidential Polls

We have nine new presidential polls today, one of which is significant. An EPIC MRA poll shows Mitt Romney up +1% in Michigan. Whether this is a genuine change or a statistical fluke remains to be seen. Pundit are now talking abut Romney's "home state effect" but it seems strange that the voters have just noticed it.

One interesting thing it does show, however, is that even if Obama fails to win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, and Michigan, he can eke out a narrow 273 EV victory if he squeaks by in Missouri and Virginia. Fundamentally, Obama has many paths to victory and Romney must block not just one of them, but all of them. This is because in the base map (the lower one discussed here), he starts with a base of 242 EVs to Romney's 165. While the map looks very red, most of the EVs are in smaller states.

State Obama Romney   Start End Pollster
Colorado 45% 45%   Jun 06 Jun 06 Rasmussen
Colorado 48% 46%   May 31 Jun 05 Purple Strategies
Florida 45% 49%   May 31 Jun 05 Purple Strategies
Michigan 45% 46%   Jun 02 Jun 05 EPIC MRA
Minnesota 54% 39%   May 31 Jun 03 PPP
Ohio 45% 48%   May 31 Jun 05 Purple Strategies
Virginia 47% 42%   May 30 Jun 04 Quinnipiac U.
Virginia 49% 46%   May 31 Jun 05 Purple Strategies
Wisconsin 48% 43%   Jun 06 Jun 06 WeAskAmerica

Today's Senate Polls

Two of the Senate polls are also unexpected. Heidi Heitkamp is holding her own in North Dakota. Many Democrats had given the seat of retiring Sen. Ken Conrad (D-ND) up for lost, but it is a surprisingly close race. Also surprising is the 6-point lead Tim Kaine has over George Allen in the Virginia battle. Allen has not mentioned any zoo animals recently, yet Kaine is ahead by more than the margin of error. But remember, the margin of error gives only a 95% guarantee, not a 100% guarantee that the leader is really ahead, and then only if the sample was perfectly random and there were no methodological errors in the survey.

State Democrat D % Republican R % I I % Start End Pollster
North Dakota Heidi Heitkamp 47% Rick Berg 46%     Jun 04 Jun 06 Mason Dixon
Pennsylvania Bob Casey 42% Tom Smith 21%     May 29 Jun 04 Franklin+Marshall Coll.
Virginia Tim Kaine 49% George Allen 43%     May 17 May 20 Marist Coll.

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---The Votemaster

Previous Headlines

Jun07 What Could Romney Learn from Walker?
Jun07 Democrats Start the Blame Game over Wisconsin Loss
Jun07 Might Romney Choose Walker as Veep?
Jun06 Martin Heinrich Will Face Heather Wilson in New Mexico
Jun06 Romney Sweeps the Primaries
Jun06 Walker Makes History: Survives Recall Attempt
Jun06 Democrats Appear to Have Won the Wisconsin State Senate
Jun06 California Runs a Jungle Primary
Jun06 Clinton Defeats Obama
Jun05 Wisconsin Recall Election Today
Jun05 Five Primaries Today
Jun05 Today's Presidential Polls
Jun04 Obama's Strategy Revisited
Jun04 Dept. of Justice Tells Florida to Stop Purging the Voter Rolls
Jun03 Is Romney's Mormon Religion a Campaign Issue?
Jun03 Ten Potential Game Changers that Could Happen Before the Election
Jun03 It's Obama vs. Clinton in New Jersey
Jun03 Is Romney's Mormon Religion a Campaign Issue?
Jun03 Ten Potential Game Changers that Could Happen Before the Election
Jun03 It's Obama vs. Clinton in New Jersey
Jun03 Today's Senate Polls
Jun02 Dismal Jobs Report for May
Jun02 Tipping-Point Table Revisited
Jun02 Presidential Polls
Jun02 Senate Polls
Jun01 New Table Available Showing Tipping Point States
Jun01 Ideas for Other Pages Are Welcome
Jun01 Presidential Polls
Jun01 Senate Polls
May31 McConnell Lists Top Senate Races
May31 Globalization and Politics
May31 Cell-Phone-Only Voters are Very Different
May31 Clear Your Cache!
May31 Correction on Natural-Born Citizens
May31 Presidential Polls
May31 Senate Polls
May30 Romney's the One
May30 Runoff Required in Texas Senatorial Primary
May30 Today's Polls
May30 Relaunch of This Site Yesterday
May29 App for iPhone and iPad Available
May29 New Design Launched Today
May29 Texas Primary Is Today
May23 Romney Wins Kentucky and Arkansas Primaries
May23 Obama Also Has Trouble Unifying His Party
May23 Opposition to Same-Sex Marriage Collapses
May23 Thanks to All the Beta Testers
May22 Arkansas and Kentucky Hold Primaries Today
May22 Obama and Cory Booker Continue to Squabble
May22 Hawaii Pushing Back on the Arizona Secretary of State's Request for Obama's Birth Certificate