Thune: Democrats, Go Talk to Trump

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has now effectively said that legislating is none of his business. That is the president's job. If the Democrats don't want to pass the House bills in front of them, then they must go negotiate with Donald Trump directly. After all, the power of the purse belongs to the Executive Branch, so it is not his job to negotiate with Senate Democrats about passing legislation to fund the government.

In particular, he doesn't want to split the DHS funding from the rest because he understands that if the government is fully funded except DHS, the Democrats will demand the sun, the moon, and the stars in return for agreeing to fund DHS and will be in no hurry to do it no matter what. He doesn't want the blame for that situation, so he is passing that hot potato to Trump. If there is ever a new version of Profiles in Courage, Thune is not going to get a chapter. Or even a footnote, for that matter.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) once again said he wanted to split up the funding into DHS and "other" and pass the "other" immediately, but Thune wanted no part of that as it would give up his leverage and infuriate Trump. He is scared to death of that. Schumer pointed out that the bills for funding the various departments are all well isolated, so splitting them is easy. He said that the DHS bill needs some work after the death of Alex Pretti. Splitting the bills and passing all but DHS would fund 96% of the government, but there was no way Thune was willing to stick out his neck, even though he is not up until 2028.

Assuming Thune continues to view legislating as something above his pay grade, Schumer will have to talk to Trump directly. Trump understands that funding 96% of the government and leaving DHS out to dry will effectively be "defund ICE" since the Democrats will have no incentive to fund it without major, major reforms. He probably won't budge, so a government shutdown is likely. If that happens, Republicans will claim Democrats want to defund ICE. If Democrats are smart, they will say, "No, we want to reform ICE." (See next item.) (V)

Poll: Reform ICE

A new Democratic think tank, the Searchlight Institute, which supports popularism (which is not the same as populism) has come out with a poll of likely midterm voters taken at the height of the outrage about the murder of Alex Pretti. It shows that 58% of the respondents want to rein in ICE, with reforming it being more popular than abolishing it. It has started circulating a memo among Democratic leaders urging them to fight for reform (rather than abolition) during the upcoming funding battle. Voters see the need for defending the border and deporting people in the country illegally, but don't like ICE's tactics and want officers to have more and better training and especially to obey the law. They are urging Democrats to play hardball and insist on reform as a condition for funding DHS.

Searchlight's plan is to force the Republicans to split off DHS funding from the rest, pass the rest (which is not very controversial), and then dig in and take a stand refusing to fund DHS unless the law forces ICE to be reformed. The results of the poll show that 35% of independents want reform, which is more popular than any of the other options (abolition, replacement, do nothing, or give ICE more money). Reform would consist of things like not allowing ICE officers to enter anyone's home without a warrant from a Senate-confirmed Article III judge, compelling them to wear identifying information, barring them from detaining U.S. citizens, and more. Even 23% of Republicans support reforming ICE. Searchlight says that the results of the poll show that making a stand here would be popular, and presumably help Democrats in the midterms.

The Institute is pushing Democrats to do things that are popular, regardless of ideology. That does seem like a way to win votes. Although this poll did not address the subject, doing the popular thing would mean dropping positions that are not popular, even if it would make progressives unhappy. For example, poll after poll has shown that the vast majority of Americans do not want trans girls on girls' sports teams. That is the position that Democrats will have to be on, even if it's not a position the individual politicians particularly like. The justification is that the job of a representative is to, well, represent (the views of the people who elected them). The focus here is winning elections. Unlike Henry Clay, they would rather be president than be right. (See below for more.) (V)

FBI Searches the Fulton County Elections Office

The FBI, under the direction of Kash Patel (R-QLAND), executed a search warrant at the Fulton County Elections Office, near Atlanta, yesterday. Patel did this because Donald Trump is still angry that he didn't win Georgia in 2020. He believes there was fraud there, even though the (conservative Republican) secretary of state, Brad Raffensperger, and multiple judges has said there was no significant fraud.

The search warrant authorized the agents to inspect records of the 2020 election. A month ago, the administration sued Fulton County, seeking to seize and inspect all the 2020 ballots. Rather than wait for the courts to decide (with the danger the decision would go against the administration), Patel simply got a judge to sign a warrant and then sent a dozen agents to get to work.

Last week, the FBI replaced its top agent in Atlanta, Paul Brown. It is not clear why that move was made or if it related to yesterday's search.

Election officials don't know what the FBI wants, but they are worried. The FBI has refused to comment on the search. If Trump manages to seize all the 2020 ballots, he could easily destroy 11,780 votes for Joe Biden and then claim: "See, I won after all." (V)

Democrats Have Introduced a Privileged Resolution to Impeach Kristi Noem

It is unusual for the House minority to investigate anyone, but House Democrats intend to start investigating DHS Secretary Kristi Noem next week. Since they don't have subpoena power, any witnesses they line up will have to come of their own free will.

The top three House Democrats issued a statement reading "The violence unleashed on the American people by the Department of Homeland Security must end forthwith. Kristi Noem should be fired immediately, or we will commence impeachment proceedings in the House of Representatives." If the Democrats conclude that Noem has abused her power or broken the law, they will ask for a vote on a privileged motion to impeach her. That will force a floor vote. Most likely it will fail along party lines, because any Republican who voted for it would incur Donald Trump's wrath and likely be out of a job next January. There is a very teeny weeny small chance that one or two of the 24 Republicans who have already announced that they are going to retire will vote for it to go out with a bang. Thomas Massie (R-KY) is also a possibility; he hates Trump, he is a Libertarian at heart who hates government overreach, and he's apparently bulletproof. One retiring Republican senator, Thom Tillis (R-NC), has called for Noem to resign. So far he is the first Republican senator to call for her resignation.

So far, more than 160 House Democrats have co-signed a resolution to impeach Noem. And while the chances of success are low, even a failure accomplishes three things. First, it shows the Democratic base that the Party is actually trying to do something, but they need three more seats to pull it off, so please vote in November. Second, it puts all House Republicans on record supporting Noem. If she is even less popular in November than she is now, that could decide some close races. Third, it could put Noem on notice that her tenure is hanging by a thread. Impeachment would be embarrassing, but it is unlikely that two-thirds of the Senate will vote to convict her. But if ICE kills a few more American citizens, that could change. She might even get the message and instruct ICE officers to stop killing people. Though, to be honest, her limit is probably "stop killing white people." It is doubtful she will put a stop to the killing of undocumented immigrants, or even the killing of brown U.S. citizens who speak Spanish.

A number of Democrats from swing districts are reporting that their constituents want Noem impeached. For example, Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-NM) said his office lines have been flooded with constituents calling to demand Noem be impeached. Even Blue Dog Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) said that Noem must resign. (V)

The Mother of All Trade Deals

Donald Trump's policy of America First is bearing fruit already. Unfortunately, it is rotten fruit and will haunt America for generations to come. He doesn't understand that the world trade and defense systems created (by America) in 1945 were also for America. Making America the central hub for everything in the world has benefited the country in uncountable many ways for 80 years. The dollar is the world's reserve currency, which means the U.S. can print money whenever it needs it. If, say, India, does this, it will just devalue its currency against others and hurt its trade. Trump has decided to throw out all the advantages the country has carefully crafted for itself for 80 years because he can't see how to personally profit from having American consumers get cheap products from abroad and having American companies get markets all over the world. Make no mistake. There is no going back now. The next Democratic president won't be able to fix this. This is true of trade, security, and other things. The best quote we have seen is from a European diplomat who said: "We cannot have the security of Europe depend on 4,000 voters in Wisconsin every 4 years." The old quote from Warren Buffett isn't too bad, either: "It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it."

So what has happened? Recently, the E.U. signed a major trade agreement with MERCOSUR, a dozen South American countries who are slowly building their "South American Union" modeled on the E.U. This will create an almost-free-trade zone with 700 million people in Europe and South America where the U.S. is not involved at all and has no input on what they do.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen just went to India to finalize a major trade deal between the E.U. and India. This new trade zone will have 2 billion people in it and again, the U.S. is not involved and has no influence on it. Von der Leyen called it "the mother of all trade deals." She was given a huge honorary welcome as India pivots away from the U.S. toward Europe.

The agreement on this deal, as well as MERCOSUR, will mean that the E.U. will be increasingly independent of the U.S. and doesn't have to take direction as much from the U.S. This not only reduces the U.S.' soft power in the world, but also affects markets for U.S. products. India can do business with the E.U. and not have to worry about a mad king messing everything up on a whim. Indian Prime Minister Modi understands the value of that.

It is estimated that the deal with India alone will offset about a quarter of the losses inflicted on the E.U. by Trump's tariffs. One major item is automobiles. German and French car manufacturers lost revenue due to Trump's tariffs, but if they can make it up with more exports to South America, India, and Asia, the tariffs don't bite so much and Trump's favorite weapon loses some of its potency.

Von der Leyen is undoubtedly aware that a trade deal with South Korea, Japan, and other Asian counties would be nice to add to her collection. Barack Obama was in the process of making a trade agreement with Asian countries, called the TransPacific Partnership, when he left office. It was intended as a counterweight to China. When Trump took office, he killed it. Von der Leyen now has a blueprint for her next big project. And of course, she will also work on some kind of deal with China since decoupling from the U.S. is in the interest of both the E.U. and China. Chinese President Xi Jinping also understands that. There will undoubtedly be some tough negotiations ahead on the details, but since both sides see value in making a deal, there is likely to be one in due course.

Does any of this help the U.S.? Not a whit, of course. It just reduces American power (and markets) all over the world. Just as one example, if all the countries in the various deals are required to give preference to Airbus, a European company, over Boeing (U.S.) where they have comparable products, that is sure to hurt Boeing. If software engineers in India can refine open-source software to make it as good as anything the U.S. produces, E.U. countries will favor that over buying products from Microsoft, Oracle, etc. if for no other reason that Europeans don't trust U.S. companies with data about European citizens. Bit by bit (literally, in the case of software, figuratively in other sectors), U.S. markets around the world are going to shrink, affecting employment in those sectors, profits, stock market valuations, and more. Nice move, Don. The Art of the Deal. Only it is Von der Leyen who is making all the deals. (V)

Vindman Breaks Fundraising Record in Florida Senate Race

Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman (ret.), who helped trigger the first impeachment of Donald Trump, has entered the Senate race against Sen. Ashley Moody (R-FL), who was appointed to the post by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). Vindman once testified before Congress and told the members that Donald Trump tried to blackmail Volodymr Zelenskyy into agreeing to investigate Hunter Biden. Vindman's testimony led to Trump's first impeachment.

So far, so good for Vindman. In the first 24 hours of his campaign, he raised $1.7 million. That is the most any Senate candidate in Florida's history has raised in any 24-hour period. He reported that 99% of the online donations were $100 or less, so he can go back to those donors over and over asking for more money. If this is an indication of what is to come, he may well have enough money to seriously compete against Moody, who has never run for the Senate before. Of course, he will need many days like yesterday, because Florida is a very expensive state to run in, with 10 media markets and a huge population. But his first $1.7 million can go to more fundraising to keep the ball rolling.

Moody's Q4 fundraising numbers won't be public until Jan. 31, but during the first three quarters of 2025 combined, she raised $1.9 million—only slightly more than he raised in one day. She also transferred $2.1 million from other authorized committees to her Senate campaign account.

Moody has been endorsed by Donald Trump and is battle tested, having run for attorney general twice and won twice. Republicans in Florida now outnumber Democrats by 1.4 million voters. For Vindman to win, he would have to convince a lot of Florida Republicans to vote for him (or to stay home on Election Day). Charlie Cook rates the Florida Senate race as solid Republican. Still, if Trump is below what Sarah Longwell calls the Bush line (32% approval) in November and there is a massive blue tsunami, Vindman might be able to pull it off. (V)

The Democratic Party Is Deeply Unpopular

Thomas Edsall has (another) good column about the Democrats' problem. Turns out it is the Democrats. They are deeply unpopular.

A Democratic PAC analyzed dozens of case studies since 2012 and found that since 2012, highly educated staffers, donors, advocacy groups, pundits, and elected officials have reshaped the Party in their vision, which is not the voters' vision. For example, they found that from 2012 to 2024, the word frequency of "hate" increased 1,323%, "white/Black/Latino/Latina" increased by 1,137%, "LGBT" and variants by 1,044, and "equity" by 766%. In contrast, "responsibility" fell by 83%, "middle class" fell by 79%, "veteran" fell by 31%, and "crime/criminal" fell by 30%. This is not where the voters are.

Working-class voters see the Democrats as "woke, weak, and out of touch." Six in 10 have a negative view of the Party. This is not Donald Trump's fault. If a majority of a major group of voters see a Party as "out of touch," winning elections is tough, as Democrats have discovered. During FDR's administration, no working-class person in his or her right mind would vote for Republicans. Such is not the case now.

The placing of groups ahead of individuals sends the wrong message to many voters. When Joe Biden preannounced that he would include only Black women in his search for a new Supreme Court justice, that was absolutely the wrong message. It basically said that qualified white men would not even be considered. Is it surprising that white men don't see the Democrats as "their" party? He could have said he would consider all candidates and then picked a Black woman, saying she was the best candidate. That sends a different message. This is the Democrats' problem in a nutshell.

Earlier this month, Noah Smith published a detailed and biting critique of "liberalism" entitled "Where Does a Liberal Go from Here?" It contain this passage: "I watched with concern as the quest to end discrimination against Black Americans evolved into a desire to institutionalize discrimination against white Americans in universities, nonprofits, government agencies and many corporations—something the liberals of the 1990s swore they would never countenance." He also noted that support for gay rights, which was reasonably popular with many voters, to a trans rights movement that is out of step with what the voters believe and want.

Edsall notes that many Democratic officeholders now have stands that alienate large numbers of voters, especially working-class and middle-class voters. In contrast, Lanae Erickson of the Third Way, a centrist Democratic think tank, notes that Trump's declining support gives the Democrats an opening, but they have to grab it and offer the voters something they want. She suggests freedom of thought, equality of opportunity, and the Golden Rule, treating others as you would like to be treated.

Edsall goes on for a while, but concludes with: "The 2026 election is very likely to pose a problem for the Democrats. The better the party does in the midterm elections, the incentive to reform in preparation for the 2028 presidential contest will lose force—a win-lose proposition." In a way, this is similar to the Searchlight item above: If the goal is winning elections, how about figuring out what the voters want, promising that, and if elected, actually making it happen. The Democrats need to become a political party—with a laser focus on winning elections,—not an ideological movement that wants to make a point, elections be damned. (V)

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