Mar. 24 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Obama ?   Republican ?  
Senate Dem ?   GOP ?  

Senate map and races
Downloadable polling data
Previous report
Next report

strong Dem Strong Dem (253)
weak Dem Weak Dem (32)
barely Dem Barely Dem (73)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (13)
weak GOP Weak GOP (42)
strong GOP Strong GOP (125)
270 Electoral votes needed to win
Map algorithm explained
Senate polls today: (None) iPhone RSS
Dem pickups: (None) GOP pickups: (None) PDA

PW logo Romney Way Ahead in California Primary Santorum Wins in Louisiana
Cheney Has a Heart Transplant Gay Marriage Effort Attracts Different Set of Donors
Quote of the Day The Parallels Between Clinton and Obama

News from the Votemaster

Santorum Headed for Win in Louisiana Primary Today     Permalink

Louisiana is holding its Republican primary today but only 20 of its 46 delegates are at stake. To get any delegates, a candidate must get at least 25% of the statewide vote. Another 23 delegates will be selected in the state convention in Shreveport in June based on the results of the congressional district caucuses on April 28. The three RNC members are officially unpledged. It is a bit complicated, but Louisiana is famous for complicated elections. Nevertheless, a Santorum win will continue the "Romney can't win in the South" narrative.

The most recent poll, from PPP, puts Santorum ahead of Romney in Louisiana, 42% to 28%, with Gingrich at 18% and Paul at 8%. If these results hold up, Santorum will get about 14 delegates to Romney's 6. Picking up a net of about 8 delegates is not going to help Santorum much given that he is currently trailing Romney by about 563 to 263 in total delegates,

Club for Growth Buying Airtime Against Lugar     Permalink

Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) is so much of a fixture in Indiana politics that the Democrats didn't even bother to run anyone against him in 2006. In the three elections before 2006, they did, but Lugar still got 2/3 of the vote. So one might think he is a shoo-in for a seventh term in the Senate, but one would be wrong. The challenge the conservative senator is facing is not from the left, but from the right. In today's Republican Party, even solidly conservative incumbent senators can be challenged, as was the case with former senator Bob Bennett in Utah in 2010. Lugar is facing a primary battle with state Treasurer Richard Mourdock, a tea-party favorite and now the Club for Growth is buying ads to attack Lugar for being insufficiently conservative. Lugar's real problem is not his lack of conservatism, which he has in spades, but his attempt to act like an adult and not make incendiary statements.

Recent polling shows Lugar ahead by 6% for the May 8 primary. If Mourdock somehow manages to win the primary, we may have another situation like the Delaware 2010 senatorial election, in which the GOP nominated a tea party candidate, Christine O'Donnell, who went down in flames, rather than stick with a more boring Republican, Mike Castle, who was virtually certain to win. The Democratic nominee for the Indiana Senate seat is almost certainly going to be Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-IN). Normally Indiana is a reliably red state although Obama managed to win it by 1% in 2008.

If you like this Website, tell your friends. You can also share by clicking this button  

-- The Votemaster

Previous headlines

Mar21 Romney Wins Illinois by 12%
Mar21 Maine Senate Race Candidates Now Known
Mar20 Romney Expected to Win Illinois Primary Today
Mar20 Republicans to Propose Major Tax Reform Today
Mar19 Romney Wins Puerto Rico
Mar18 No Results from the Raucous Caucus
Mar18 Puerto Rico in the Spotlight Today
Mar11 Santorum Wins Kansas Caucus
Mar10 Santorum Favorite to Win Kansas Caucus Today
Mar10 Angus King Endorses Obama
Mar07 Romney wins Ohio and five other states, Santorum wins three states
Mar06 Today is Super Tuesday
Mar06 Independent Throws Maine Senate Race into Turmoil
Mar04 Romney Wins Washington, Paul Second (Maybe)
Mar03 Washington State Holds Caucuses Today
Mar03 Maine Senate Field Taking Shape
Feb29 Romney Barely Wins Michigan
Feb29 Olympia Snow Announces Her Retirement
Feb28 Michigan Too Close to Call
Feb28 Kerrey May Run for the Senate in Nebraska
Feb23 Romney Attacks, Santorum Defends, Nothing Much Changes
Feb23 Of Vaginas and Veeps
Feb21 Too Late for a White Knight
Feb21 Another Republican Debate Tomorrow
Feb17 Santorum Leading Romney in Michigan
Feb12 Romney Wins the CPAC Straw Poll
Feb12 Romney Edges Out Paul by 194 Votes in Maine
Feb12 Santorum Leading in Michigan and Nationwide
Feb08 Santorum Wins Big in Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado
Feb05 Romney Wins Nevada Caucuses
Feb05 Republican Primary and Caucus Schedule
Feb04 Romney Expected to Win Big at Nevada Caucuses Today
Feb04 Economy is Improving
Feb01 Romney Wins Decisively in Florida
Jan31 Romney Set to Win Big in Florida
Jan31 Santorum Faces Easy Choice Tomorrow
Jan31 Prediction: Florida Will Win Today
Jan27 Romney Takes Off the Gloves in Final Florida Debate
Jan27 Romney Failed to List Foreign Investments on Legal Form
Jan25 Obama Lays Groundwork for a Populist Campaign in State-of-the-Union Speech