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News from the Votemaster

Romney Wins a Tripleheader     Permalink

As expected, Mitt Romney won the primaries in D.C., Maryland, and Wisconsin yesterday. There was never any doubt about D.C. since Santorum didn't qualify for the ballot there. Maryland is a very blue state and thus is prime Romney territory. He won it by 20%. The only place Rick Santorum had a chance was in Wisconsin, which is not as blue as the others. There Romney won by only 5%, but it still adds to his collection of victories in the Midwest, which include Michigan, Ohio, and Illinois. Here are the results.

Where Romney Santorum Gingrich Paul
D.C. 70% - 11% 12%
Maryland 49% 29% 11% 10%
Wisconsin 43% 38% 6% 12%

One interesting note about the results is in D.C. With Santorum off the ballot, one might have expected his votes to go to Gingrich or Paul. They didn't. They all went to Romney, but the demographics of D.C. are so atypical (the majority of District residents are black) that this doesn't mean much. What is significant, however, is that in the contests other than D.C., Romney once again failed to break 50%. So far, the only state primary where all the candidates were on the ballot in which Romney has gotten more votes than not-Romney is his home state of Massachusetts.

In the delegate count, Romney now has 655 to Santorum's 278. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul trail with 135 and 51, respectively. To win the nomination, 1144 delegates are needed. According to at least one model, Romney will not quite make it to 1144 by the end of the process, but will come up 22 delegates short. However, with 598 delegates unbound, Romney will have no trouble coming up with those 22 to clinch the nomination before the convention starts.

Nevertheless, Santorum has vowed to soldier on, at least until April 24, when Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Rhode Island, and most important, Pennsylvania, vote. Romney is expected to win the first four easily, all of which he will lose in the general election by wide margins. The real battleground that day will be Santorum's home state of Pennsylvania. If Santorum loses that, no one will take him seriously any more. If he wins it, he may continue on into May when a number of conservative states, including Texas vote. A big Santorum win in Texas wouldn't give Santorum the nomination, but it would be an embarrassment to Romney.

Obama to Run Against Ryan     Permalink

Despite the near inevitability of Mitt Romney's nomination, President Obama has decided to run against Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) and his budget. In a (campaign) speech to the media yesterday, Obama attacked the Ryan plan, which Romney has backed, as "social Darwinism" and said it would hurt the middle class. Most voters have never heard of Ryan, despite his importance to the Republican Party, giving Obama the chance to introduce him and his plan to the public. A key provision of Ryan's plan is to end Medicare and replace it with a program in which seniors are given vouchers to buy private insurance.

The great irony here is that in the case argued before the Supreme Court last week, the Republican Attorneys General were saying that the federal government cannot order people to buy private insurance. Yet the Ryan plan gives people vouchers and tells them to buy private insurance. The difference between taxing people and then giving them vouchers to buy private insurance and telling them to go buy private insurance directly is a subtle one. It may be lost on many people. Nevertheless, Obama's team is likely to be mass producing bumper stickers that read: "Republicans want to end Medicare" and distributing them in senior-heavy Florida. If Obama follows through and charges hard to the left while the Republicans are running as fast as they can to the right, we may have the most ideological general election campaign in decades.

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Previous headlines

Apr03 Romney Advisors Trying to Decide Whether to Unleash the Candidate
Apr03 Primaries in D.C., Maryland, and Wisconsin Today
Apr03 Romney Advuisors Trying to Decide Whether to Unleash the Candidate
Apr03 Federal Mandates Have Been Around for over 200 Years
Mar30 Supreme Court Could Become an Election Issue
Mar27 Lose to Win?
Mar25 Santorum Continues His Southern Winning Streak in Louisiana
Mar25 Can Romney Clear the Etch a Sketch?
Mar24 Santorum Headed for Win in Louisiana Primary Today
Mar24 Club for Growth Buying Airtime Against Lugar
Mar21 Romney Wins Illinois by 12%
Mar21 Maine Senate Race Candidates Now Known
Mar20 Romney Expected to Win Illinois Primary Today
Mar20 Republicans to Propose Major Tax Reform Today
Mar19 Romney Wins Puerto Rico
Mar18 No Results from the Raucous Caucus
Mar18 Puerto Rico in the Spotlight Today
Mar11 Santorum Wins Kansas Caucus
Mar10 Santorum Favorite to Win Kansas Caucus Today
Mar10 Angus King Endorses Obama
Mar07 Romney wins Ohio and five other states, Santorum wins three states
Mar06 Today is Super Tuesday
Mar06 Independent Throws Maine Senate Race into Turmoil
Mar04 Romney Wins Washington, Paul Second (Maybe)
Mar03 Washington State Holds Caucuses Today
Mar03 Maine Senate Field Taking Shape
Feb29 Romney Barely Wins Michigan
Feb29 Olympia Snow Announces Her Retirement
Feb28 Michigan Too Close to Call
Feb28 Kerrey May Run for the Senate in Nebraska
Feb23 Romney Attacks, Santorum Defends, Nothing Much Changes
Feb23 Of Vaginas and Veeps
Feb21 Too Late for a White Knight
Feb21 Another Republican Debate Tomorrow
Feb17 Santorum Leading Romney in Michigan
Feb12 Romney Wins the CPAC Straw Poll
Feb12 Romney Edges Out Paul by 194 Votes in Maine
Feb12 Santorum Leading in Michigan and Nationwide
Feb08 Santorum Wins Big in Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado
Feb05 Romney Wins Nevada Caucuses

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