Apr. 11 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Obama ?   Republican ?  
Senate Dem ?   GOP ?  

Senate map and races
Downloadable polling data
Previous report
Next report

strong Dem Strong Dem (253)
weak Dem Weak Dem (32)
barely Dem Barely Dem (73)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (13)
weak GOP Weak GOP (42)
strong GOP Strong GOP (125)
270 Electoral votes needed to win
Map algorithm explained
Senate polls today: (None) iPhone RSS
Dem pickups: (None) GOP pickups: (None) PDA

PW logo Towns Will Not Seek Re-Election Bonus Quote of the Day
Reagan and Thatcher Politics No Longer Stops at the Water's Edge
Romney Campaign Staff Grows Quote of the Day

News from the Votemaster

Santorum Quits Race     Permalink

Rick Santorum announced yesterday that he is suspending his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. By suspending the campaign rather than ending it outright, he can continue to collect donations to pay off any campaign debts he has outstanding. In his speech in Gettysburg, PA, he did not endorse Mitt Romney. But make no mistake, he is conceding defeat and not coming back later. Another consequence of suspending, rather than ending, his campaign is that those delegates bound to him (primary delegates, not caucus delegates) remain bound and must vote for him at the convention unless he releases them.

Two events no doubt motivated his departure. First and foremost, despite the fact that he once represented Pennsylvania in the Senate, recent polling showed him 5 points behind Romney and falling. Earlier in the year, he had a large lead in Pennsylvania, nominally his home state although he was born in Virginia and lives there now. But then the battle in Pennsylvania took its usual course. Mitt Romney and his allied superPACs poured millions of dollars into negative TV ads, and that took down Santorum in Pennsylvania as it did in every other contested state outside the South. Being outspent 5 to 1 or more takes its toll on any candidate.

The other reason Santorum dropped out is that his 3-year-old daughter, Bella, was hospitalized again with pneumonia. Although she has been allowed to go home, her condition, trisomy 18, is generally fatal. No one doubts that Santorum genuinely prefers spending time with his sick daughter than campaigning. In a sense, her recent hospitalization provides a convenient excuse for him to stop campaigning: he can look like a devoted family man and also avoid a career-ending defeat in Pennsylvania at the same time. If Romney loses the general election, Santorum can make a decent claim in 2016 to be the heir apparent. After all, he did win 11 states while Gingrich won only his home state of Georgia and South Carolina. None of the other candidates won any states. Of course, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, and quite a few other high-profile Republicans may have dreams about 2016 as well.

No doubt some pundits will say Santorum dropped out entirely to be with his daughter, but the facts speak otherwise. This is the second time Bella has been hospitalized with pneumonia this year. When she was hospitalized in January, Santorum did not suspend his campaign or do anything other than take off a few days to be with her. It was only the combination of her illness plus an ignominious defeat looming on the horizon that got him out.

Technically, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are still in the race, but it seems unlikely that either one will be able to capitalize on Santorum's departure in a big way. Similarly, it is probably too late for anyone else to jump in. But the fact remains that Romney has failed to break 50% in any contested primary outside of his home state of Massachusetts. In the coming few weeks we will see if the base of the Republican Party finally gives in and accepts Romney.

If you like this Website, tell your friends. You can also share by clicking this button  

-- The Votemaster

Previous headlines

Apr10 Competitive Races for Democratic Senate Seats
Apr04 Romney Wins a Tripleheader
Apr04 Obama to Run Against Ryan
Apr03 Romney Advisors Trying to Decide Whether to Unleash the Candidate
Apr03 Primaries in D.C., Maryland, and Wisconsin Today
Apr03 Romney Advuisors Trying to Decide Whether to Unleash the Candidate
Apr03 Federal Mandates Have Been Around for over 200 Years
Mar30 Supreme Court Could Become an Election Issue
Mar27 Lose to Win?
Mar25 Santorum Continues His Southern Winning Streak in Louisiana
Mar25 Can Romney Clear the Etch a Sketch?
Mar24 Santorum Headed for Win in Louisiana Primary Today
Mar24 Club for Growth Buying Airtime Against Lugar
Mar21 Romney Wins Illinois by 12%
Mar21 Maine Senate Race Candidates Now Known
Mar20 Romney Expected to Win Illinois Primary Today
Mar20 Republicans to Propose Major Tax Reform Today
Mar19 Romney Wins Puerto Rico
Mar18 No Results from the Raucous Caucus
Mar18 Puerto Rico in the Spotlight Today
Mar11 Santorum Wins Kansas Caucus
Mar10 Santorum Favorite to Win Kansas Caucus Today
Mar10 Angus King Endorses Obama
Mar07 Romney wins Ohio and five other states, Santorum wins three states
Mar06 Today is Super Tuesday
Mar06 Independent Throws Maine Senate Race into Turmoil
Mar04 Romney Wins Washington, Paul Second (Maybe)
Mar03 Washington State Holds Caucuses Today
Mar03 Maine Senate Field Taking Shape
Feb29 Romney Barely Wins Michigan
Feb29 Olympia Snow Announces Her Retirement
Feb28 Michigan Too Close to Call
Feb28 Kerrey May Run for the Senate in Nebraska
Feb23 Romney Attacks, Santorum Defends, Nothing Much Changes
Feb23 Of Vaginas and Veeps
Feb21 Too Late for a White Knight
Feb21 Another Republican Debate Tomorrow
Feb17 Santorum Leading Romney in Michigan
Feb12 Romney Wins the CPAC Straw Poll
Feb12 Romney Edges Out Paul by 194 Votes in Maine

WWW www.electoral-vote.com